Concentration Bounds for Stochastic Approximations

We obtain non asymptotic concentration bounds for two kinds of stochastic approximations. We first consider the deviations between the expectation of a given function of the Euler scheme of some diffusion process at a fixed deterministic time and its empirical mean obtained by the Monte-Carlo procedure. We then give some estimates concerning the deviation between the value at a given time-step of a stochastic approximation algorithm and its target. Under suitable assumptions both concentration bounds turn out to be Gaussian. The key tool consists in exploiting accurately the concentration properties of the increments of the schemes. For the first case, as opposed to the previous work of Lemaire and Menozzi (EJP, 2010), we do not have any systematic bias in our estimates. Also, no specific non-degeneracy conditions are assumed.Comment: 14 page

A Rigorous Computational Approach to Linear Response

We present a general setting in which the formula describing the linear response of the physical measure of a perturbed system can be obtained. In this general setting we obtain an algorithm to rigorously compute the linear response. We apply our results to expanding circle maps. In particular, we present examples where we compute, up to a pre-specified error in the $L^{\infty}$-norm, the response of expanding circle maps under stochastic and deterministic perturbations. Moreover, we present an example where we compute, up to a pre-specified error in the $L^1$-norm, the response of the intermittent family at the boundary; i.e., when the unperturbed system is the doubling map.Comment: Revised version following reports. A new example which contains the computation of the linear response at the boundary of the intermittent family has been adde

Different Approaches on Stochastic Reachability as an Optimal Stopping Problem

Reachability analysis is the core of model checking of time systems. For stochastic hybrid systems, this safety verification method is very little supported mainly because of complexity and difficulty of the associated mathematical problems. In this paper, we develop two main directions of studying stochastic reachability as an optimal stopping problem. The first approach studies the hypotheses for the dynamic programming corresponding with the optimal stopping problem for stochastic hybrid systems. In the second approach, we investigate the reachability problem considering approximations of stochastic hybrid systems. The main difficulty arises when we have to prove the convergence of the value functions of the approximating processes to the value function of the initial process. An original proof is provided

Fluid passage-time calculation in large Markov models

Recent developments in the analysis of large Markov models facilitate the fast approximation of transient characteristics of the underlying stochastic process. So-called fluid analysis makes it possible to consider previously intractable models whose underlying discrete state space grows exponentially as model components are added. In this work, we show how fluid approximation techniques may be used to extract passage-time measures from performance models. We focus on two types of passage measure: passage-times involving individual components; as well as passage-times which capture the time taken for a population of components to evolve. Specifically, we show that for models of sufficient scale, passage-time distributions can be well approximated by a deterministic fluid-derived passage-time measure. Where models are not of sufficient scale, we are able to generate approximate bounds for the entire cumulative distribution function of these passage-time random variables, using moment-based techniques. Finally, we show that for some passage-time measures involving individual components the cumulative distribution function can be directly approximated by fluid techniques

Oblivious Bounds on the Probability of Boolean Functions

This paper develops upper and lower bounds for the probability of Boolean functions by treating multiple occurrences of variables as independent and assigning them new individual probabilities. We call this approach dissociation and give an exact characterization of optimal oblivious bounds, i.e. when the new probabilities are chosen independent of the probabilities of all other variables. Our motivation comes from the weighted model counting problem (or, equivalently, the problem of computing the probability of a Boolean function), which is #P-hard in general. By performing several dissociations, one can transform a Boolean formula whose probability is difficult to compute, into one whose probability is easy to compute, and which is guaranteed to provide an upper or lower bound on the probability of the original formula by choosing appropriate probabilities for the dissociated variables. Our new bounds shed light on the connection between previous relaxation-based and model-based approximations and unify them as concrete choices in a larger design space. We also show how our theory allows a standard relational database management system (DBMS) to both upper and lower bound hard probabilistic queries in guaranteed polynomial time.Comment: 34 pages, 14 figures, supersedes: http://arxiv.org/abs/1105.281