110,516 research outputs found
Estimating Time-Varying Effective Connectivity in High-Dimensional fMRI Data Using Regime-Switching Factor Models
Recent studies on analyzing dynamic brain connectivity rely on sliding-window
analysis or time-varying coefficient models which are unable to capture both
smooth and abrupt changes simultaneously. Emerging evidence suggests
state-related changes in brain connectivity where dependence structure
alternates between a finite number of latent states or regimes. Another
challenge is inference of full-brain networks with large number of nodes. We
employ a Markov-switching dynamic factor model in which the state-driven
time-varying connectivity regimes of high-dimensional fMRI data are
characterized by lower-dimensional common latent factors, following a
regime-switching process. It enables a reliable, data-adaptive estimation of
change-points of connectivity regimes and the massive dependencies associated
with each regime. We consider the switching VAR to quantity the dynamic
effective connectivity. We propose a three-step estimation procedure: (1)
extracting the factors using principal component analysis (PCA) and (2)
identifying dynamic connectivity states using the factor-based switching vector
autoregressive (VAR) models in a state-space formulation using Kalman filter
and expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, and (3) constructing the
high-dimensional connectivity metrics for each state based on subspace
estimates. Simulation results show that our proposed estimator outperforms the
K-means clustering of time-windowed coefficients, providing more accurate
estimation of regime dynamics and connectivity metrics in high-dimensional
settings. Applications to analyzing resting-state fMRI data identify dynamic
changes in brain states during rest, and reveal distinct directed connectivity
patterns and modular organization in resting-state networks across different
states.Comment: 21 page
Efficient detection and signal parameter estimation with application to high dynamic GPS receiver
In a system for deriving position, velocity, and acceleration information from a received signal emitted from an object to be tracked wherein the signal comprises a carrier signal phase modulated by unknown binary data and experiencing very high Doppler and Doppler rate, this invention provides combined estimation/detection apparatus for simultaneously detecting data bits and obtaining estimates of signal parameters such as carrier phase and frequency related to receiver dynamics in a sequential manner. There is a first stage for obtaining estimates of the signal parameters related to phase and frequency in the vicinity of possible data transitions on the basis of measurements obtained within a current data bit. A second stage uses the estimates from the first stage to decide whether or not a data transition has actually occurred. There is a third stage for removing data modulation from the received signal when a data transition has occurred and a fourth stage for using the received signal with data modulation removed therefrom to update global parameters which are dependent only upon receiver dynamics and independent of data modulation. Finally, there is a fifth stage for using the global parameters to determine the position, velocity, and acceleration of the object
A unified approach to structural change tests based on F statistics, OLS residuals, and ML scores
Three classes of structural change tests (or tests for parameter instability) which have been receiving much attention in both the statistics and econometrics communities but have been developed in rather loosely connected lines of research are unified by embedding them into the framework of generalized M-fluctuation tests (Zeileis and Hornik, 2003). These classes are tests based on F statistics (supF, aveF, expF tests), on OLS residuals (OLS-based CUSUM and MOSUM tests) and on maximum likelihood scores (including the Nyblom-Hansen test). We show that (represantives from) these classes are special cases of the generalized M-fluctuation tests, based on the same functional central limit theorem, but employing different functionals for capturing excessive fluctuations. After embedding these tests into the same framework and thus understanding the relationship between these procedures for testing in historical samples, it is shown how the tests can also be extended to a monitoring situation. This is achieved by establishing a general M-fluctuation monitoring procedure and then applying the different functionals corresponding to monitoring with F statistics, OLS residuals and ML scores. In particular, an extension of the supF test to a monitoring scenario is suggested and illustrated on a real-world data set.Series: Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematic
On Optimal Multiple Changepoint Algorithms for Large Data
There is an increasing need for algorithms that can accurately detect
changepoints in long time-series, or equivalent, data. Many common approaches
to detecting changepoints, for example based on penalised likelihood or minimum
description length, can be formulated in terms of minimising a cost over
segmentations. Dynamic programming methods exist to solve this minimisation
problem exactly, but these tend to scale at least quadratically in the length
of the time-series. Algorithms, such as Binary Segmentation, exist that have a
computational cost that is close to linear in the length of the time-series,
but these are not guaranteed to find the optimal segmentation. Recently pruning
ideas have been suggested that can speed up the dynamic programming algorithms,
whilst still being guaranteed to find true minimum of the cost function. Here
we extend these pruning methods, and introduce two new algorithms for
segmenting data, FPOP and SNIP. Empirical results show that FPOP is
substantially faster than existing dynamic programming methods, and unlike the
existing methods its computational efficiency is robust to the number of
changepoints in the data. We evaluate the method at detecting Copy Number
Variations and observe that FPOP has a computational cost that is competitive
with that of Binary Segmentation.Comment: 20 page
Efficient Estimation of Mutual Information for Strongly Dependent Variables
We demonstrate that a popular class of nonparametric mutual information (MI)
estimators based on k-nearest-neighbor graphs requires number of samples that
scales exponentially with the true MI. Consequently, accurate estimation of MI
between two strongly dependent variables is possible only for prohibitively
large sample size. This important yet overlooked shortcoming of the existing
estimators is due to their implicit reliance on local uniformity of the
underlying joint distribution. We introduce a new estimator that is robust to
local non-uniformity, works well with limited data, and is able to capture
relationship strengths over many orders of magnitude. We demonstrate the
superior performance of the proposed estimator on both synthetic and real-world
data.Comment: 13 pages, to appear in International Conference on Artificial
Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS) 201
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