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    ์š”ํ†ต ๋ฐ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจํ˜•

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    ํ•™์œ„๋…ผ๋ฌธ(๋ฐ•์‚ฌ)--์„œ์šธ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต ๋Œ€ํ•™์› :๋ณด๊ฑด๋Œ€ํ•™์› ๋ณด๊ฑดํ•™๊ณผ(๋ณด๊ฑดํ•™์ „๊ณต),2020. 2. Joohon Sung.๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ ๋ณตํ•ฉ ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜์€ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ๋ณ‘์  ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•˜๋Š” ์งˆํ™˜์œผ๋กœ ์ง€์—ญ์‚ฌํšŒ๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€์ •๊ฐ„ํ˜ธ ๋“ฑ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•œ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ํ—ฌ์Šค์ผ€์–ด ๋ฐ ๊ด€๋ จ ๊ธฐ๊ด€๋“ค์ด ์ฃผ์˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ์šธ์—ฌ์•ผ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ํ•˜๋‚˜์˜ ๋งŒ์„ฑ์ ์ธ ์ƒํƒœ ํ˜น์€ ๋ณตํ•ฉ์  ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ๊ณผ ์™„ํ™”๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š” ๊ฐœ์„ ๋œ ์ธก์ • ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•๊ณผ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. ์„ ์ง„๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜์˜ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์ด ๊ธ‰๊ฒฉํ•œ ๊ณ ๋ นํ™”์™€ ์ˆ˜๋ช…์˜ ์—ฐ์žฅ์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์—ญํ•™์  ๋ณ€ํ™”๋กœ ์ธํ•ด ํ‡ดํ–‰์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜๊ณผ ์ƒํ™œ ์Šต๊ด€ ๊ด€๋ จ ์งˆํ™˜๋“ค์€ ์„ ์ง„๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊ฐ์—ผ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜๋ณด๋‹ค ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๋ฅ  ๋ฐ ์น˜์‚ฌ์œจ์ด ๋” ๋†’๊ฒŒ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ๋“ค์€ ๊ฐœ์ธ๊ณผ ์‚ฌํšŒ ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ๋ถ€๋‹ด์„ ์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์ง€์†์ ์ธ ํ—ฌ์Šค์ผ€์–ด๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๊ณ , ์งˆํ™˜์œผ๋กœ ์ธํ•œ ์žฅ์• ๊ฐ€ ํ‰์ƒ ๋™์•ˆ ์ง€์†๋˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด๋‹ค. ๋”ฐ๋ผ์„œ ์—ฐ๋ น ๊ด€๋ จ ์ง‘๋‹จ์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ด€๋ จ ์ „๋žต์„ ์„ธ์›Œ์•ผ ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ๊ณ ๋ นํ™” ์ธ๊ตฌ์™€ ์ด์™€ ์—ฐ๊ด€๋œ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ๊ด€๋ฆฌ ์ง€์ถœ์˜ ์ฆ๊ฐ€์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ณ ๋ ค๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•˜๋‹ค. 2013๋…„์— ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ๋ถ€๋‹ด ์ค‘ ์žฅ์• ๋ณด์ •์ƒ์กด์—ฐ์ˆ˜(DALY)์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์š”์ธ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š” ์š”ํ†ต์ด์—ˆ๊ณ , ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„์€ ์ง€๋‚œ 20๋…„ ๋™์•ˆ ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊พธ์ค€ํžˆ ์งˆ๋ณ‘๋ถ€๋‹ด์ด ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•ด์˜จ ์งˆํ™˜์ด๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์š”ํ†ต๊ณผ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ๋‘ ์งˆํ™˜์„ ์ค‘์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„๋ฅผ ์ถ”์ •ํ•˜๊ณ  ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„ ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ: ์š”ํ†ต์€ ์‚ฌํšŒ์— ์ƒ๋‹นํ•œ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ๋ถ€๋‹ด์„ ์ฃผ๋Š” ์‹ ์ฒด์  ์งˆํ™˜์œผ๋กœ, ๊ตญ๋‚ด ์ด ๋ณดํ—˜๊ธˆ์•ก์˜ 10% ์ด์ƒ์„ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. ์š”ํ†ต์€ ์•ฝ 60-80%์˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ผ์ƒ์— ์‹œ์ž‘๋  ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ์žˆ๊ณ , ์ž ์žฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์†Œ๋…„๊ธฐ์— ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ์•ฝ 6-10%์˜ ๊ธ‰์„ฑ LBP ํ™˜์ž๋“ค ์ค‘ ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์š”ํ†ต์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ฐ˜๋ณต์ ์ธ ์š”ํ†ต ์ฆ์ƒ์„ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์ถ”์ •๋œ๋‹ค. ์š”ํ†ต ์‹œ์ž‘ ๋ฐ ์žฌ๋ฐœ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋œ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์š”์ธ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฌํ•ด ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์กด์žฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ตœ๊ทผ์—” ์ง€์งˆ ์ˆ˜์น˜, ๋™๋งฅ๊ฒฝํ™”์ฆ, ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••, ๋‹น๋‡จ๋ณ‘ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚ฎ์€ ์š”ํ†ต๊ณผ์˜ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์ข…์  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ถŒ์žฅ๋œ๋‹ค. McIntosh ๋“ฑ์˜ 2018๋…„ ์ฒด๊ณ„์  ๋ฌธํ—Œ๊ณ ์ฐฐ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์š”ํ†ต์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒ€์ฆ๋œ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ์—†๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์ง„๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์š”ํ†ต ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘์˜ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜ ์œ„ํ—˜, ์žฌ๋ฐœ ๋ฐ ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์ถ”์ •ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจ๋ธ๊ณผ ์œ„ํ—˜ ํ‰๊ฐ€ ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋„์ถœํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜๋ ค๊ณ  ์‹œ๋„ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์š”์ธ๊ณผ ์š”ํ†ต ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์„ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ชฉํ‘œ๋กœ ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•: ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์˜๋ฃŒ ๊ด€ํ–‰์—์„œ ์ˆ˜์ง‘๋œ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ „ํ–ฅ์  ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋กœ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ์ฐธ์—ฌ์ž๋Š” 2002๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2010๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ NHIS-NSC(National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort)์— ๋“ฑ๋ก๋œ 502,342 ๋ช…์œผ๋กœ ์„ค์ •ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. Cox ๋น„๋ก€ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ๊ณผ ํ”„๋ Œํ‹ฐ์Šค, ์œŒ๋ฆฌ์—„, ํ”ผํ„ฐ์Šจ ๊ฐญํƒ€์ž„ ๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ๋ถ„์„์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ: 8.4๋…„์˜ (๋ฒ”์œ„:1.49 ~ 8.99)์˜ ์ถ”์  ๊ด€์ฐฐ ์ค‘์œ„์ˆ˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ ์š”ํ†ต์ด ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ ์ฐธ๊ฐ€์ž 438,713๋ช…๊ณผ ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์š”ํ†ต์ด ์—†์—ˆ๋˜ 455,619๋ช… ์ค‘ ์ฒ˜์Œ์œผ๋กœ ์š”ํ†ต๊ณผ ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์š”ํ†ต์„ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•œ ํ™˜์ž๋Š”138,217๋ช…(31.5%)๊ณผ 60,204๋ช…(13.2%)์˜€๋‹ค. 503,482๋ช…์˜ ์ฐธ๊ฐ€์ž๋“ค๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ, 170,279๋ช…์˜ ์š”ํ†ตํ™˜์ž๋“ค์˜ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ๊ฐ€ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , 49,462(29.0%), 106,927๋ช…(62.8%)์ด ์š”ํ†ต์˜ ์žฌ๋ฐœ์„ 12๊ฐœ์›” ์ถ”์  ๋ฐ 5๋…„์˜ ์ถ”์  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋™์•ˆ ๊ฒฝํ—˜ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜ ์š”์ธ๊ณผ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์ „์˜ ์ƒํƒœ๋Š” ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ์š”ํ†ต๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ด€๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ  ๋‹จ๋ณ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ณ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋ถ„์„ ์‹œ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. (์š”ํ†ต์˜ ์ดˆ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์‹) ์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ฐ๋ น, ์„ฑ๋ณ„, ์†Œ๋“ ๋“ฑ๊ธ‰, ์•Œ์ฝ”์˜ฌ ์†Œ๋น„, ํก์—ฐ ์ƒํƒœ, ์‹ ์ฒด ์šด๋™, ์ฒด์งˆ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ˆ˜, ์ด ์ฝœ๋ ˆ์Šคํ…Œ๋กค ๋ฐ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ์„ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์˜€๊ณ , ์š”ํ†ต ์žฌ๋ฐœ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจ๋ธ์—๋Š” ์—ฐ๋ น, ์„ฑ๋ณ„, ์†Œ๋“ ๋“ฑ๊ธ‰, ์ฒด์งˆ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ˆ˜, ์ด์ฝœ๋ ˆ์Šคํ…Œ๋กค, ์ˆ˜์ถ•๊ธฐ ํ˜ˆ์••, ์š”ํ†ต ์น˜๋ฃŒ์ผ์ˆ˜, ์งˆ๋ณ‘์˜ ๊ธฐ์™•๋ ฅ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. 5๋…„ ๋‚ด ์š”ํ†ต์˜ ์žฌ๋ฐœ์—๋Œ€ํ•œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์‹์—์„œ๋Š” ์—ฐ๋ น, ์„ฑ๋ณ„, ์†Œ๋“ ์ˆ˜์ค€, ํก์—ฐ์—ฌ๋ถ€, ์•Œ์ฝ”์˜ฌ ์†Œ๋น„, BMI, ์ด์ฝœ๋ ˆ์Šคํ…Œ๋กค, ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••, ์‹ ์ฒดํ™œ๋™๋ ฅ, ์š”ํ†ต ์น˜๋ฃŒ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„, ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ๊ธฐ์™•๋ ฅ ๋“ฑ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฒ€์ฆ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ์—์„œ Harrell์˜ C-ํ†ต๊ณ„๋Ÿ‰์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ์š”ํ†ต ์ดˆ๋ฐœ ์‹œ 0.804 (95% CI, 0.796-0.812), ๋งŒ์„ฑ ์š”ํ†ต0.643 (95% CI, 0.629-0.656) ๋ฐ 5๋…„ ๋‚ด ์žฌ๋ฐœ๋œ ์š”ํ†ต 0.857 (95% CI, 0.847-0.866), 12๊ฐœ์›” ๋‚ด ์žฌ๋ฐœ๋œ ์š”ํ†ต 0.759 (95% CI, 0.745-0.774) ์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฐ„์†Œํ™”๋œ ์ˆ˜์น˜์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„, ์—ฐ๋ น, ํ‡ดํ–‰์„ฑ ๋””์Šคํฌ, ์„ฑ๋ณ„์ด ์š”ํ†ต์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ ์ƒ๊ฐ๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ  ์—ฐ๋ น, ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ ์ผ์ˆ˜ ๋ฐ ํ‡ดํ–‰์„ฑ ๋””์Šคํฌ๊ฐ€ 5๋…„ ๋‚ด ์žฌ๋ฐœ์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๋ก : ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์š”ํ†ต์ด ์˜ˆ์ธก ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ณ , ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•˜๊ณ , ์ฒซ ์ง„๋‹จ์˜ ํšจ๊ณผ์ ์ธ ์น˜๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์žฌ๋ฐœ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์ค„์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•”์‹œํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋˜ํ•œ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ ๊ตฌ์„ฑ ์š”์†Œ๊ฐ€ ์š”ํ†ต์˜ ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐํ˜€๋ƒˆ๊ณ , ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘ ์ „ ๋‹จ๊ณ„์˜ ์ƒํƒœ๊ฐ€ ํ–ฅํ›„ ์š”ํ†ต ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘๊ณผ ๋งŒ์„ฑ๋„, ์žฌ๋ฐœ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ํŠนํžˆ, ๊ณ ํ˜ˆ์••๊ณผ ์š”ํ†ต ์‚ฌ์ด์—๋Š” ๋ฐ˜๋น„๋ก€ (์—ญ์ƒ๊ด€๊ด€๊ณ„)๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘, ์žฌ๋ฐœ, ๋งŒ์„ฑ์˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก์š”์ธ์—๋Š” ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—์„œ๋Š” ์š”ํ†ต ๋ฐœ์ƒ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์ถ”์ •ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจ๋ธ 5๊ฐœ๊ฐ€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ์ง„๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์ „๊ตญ ์ƒ˜ํ”Œ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ์—์„œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ ๋ฐ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์˜ˆ์ธก์‹์ด ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋Œ€์‹ ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ๋ชปํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ž„์ƒ์  ๊ฒฐ์ •์˜ ์ •ํ™•๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ด๋Š”๋ฐ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„ ๋ถ€๋ถ„๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€์˜ ์˜๊ฒฌ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง„๋‹จ ์‹œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋” ์ •ํ™•๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์„ค์ •์— ํ†ตํ•ฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ์™ธ๋ถ€ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์—…๋ฐ์ดํŠธํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ธฐํšŒ๋ฅผ ์ œ๊ณตํ•œ๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„ ๋ฐฐ๊ฒฝ: ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์€ ์š”๋กœ์™€ ์‹ ์žฅ์— ๊ฒฐ์„์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์˜๋ฏธํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ ์—ผ๋ถ„์˜ ์šฉํ•ด๋„์™€ ์นจ์ „๋„์˜ ๊ท ํ˜•์ด ๊นจ์กŒ์„ ๋•Œ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์€ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๋ณ‘์ธ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ๋‹ค์ธ์„ฑ ์งˆํ™˜์œผ๋กœ ์„œ๊ตฌ๊ถŒ์—์„œ ์•ฝ 10%์˜ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด์ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค. Romero ๋“ฑ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•ฝ 5.0%์˜ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„ ์œ ๋ณ‘๋ฅ ์„ ๋ณด์ด๋ฉฐ ์งˆ๋ณ‘๋ถ€๋‹ด์€ ์ ์ฐจ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ์ง€๋งŒ ์ตœ๊ทผ๊นŒ์ง€๋„ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ธ๊ตฌ ํŠน์ด์  ์œ„ํ—˜์˜ˆ์ธก๋ชจ๋ธ์ด ํ•œ๊ตญ์—์„œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋˜๊ณ  ๊ฒ€์ฆ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„์€ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ์ด ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์€ ๋„์ถœ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ์ •๊ตํžˆ ๊ฒ€์ฆ๋œ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ๊ฐœ์ธ๋ณ„ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„๋ฅผ ํŒ๋ณ„ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋„์›€์„ ์ค„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ  ์˜ˆ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์„ ์ฐพ๋Š” ๋ฐ ๋„์›€์„ ์ค€๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋งŽ์€ ์—ญํ•™์—ฐ๊ตฌ์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์ผ์ƒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ˆ˜์ง‘๋˜๋Š” ์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ์ข…๋‹จ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์‹œ๋„๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋‹ค. ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ๊ณผ ์˜๋ฃŒ์ง„์ด ํŒŒ์•…ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•˜๋Š” ์œ„ํ—˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ์š”์ธ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„ ์˜ˆ์ธก ์ˆ˜์‹์„ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  ๊ฒ€์ฆํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ์ด์— ๋”ํ•˜์—ฌ, ๋ณธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ๋Œ€์‚ฌ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ, ์งˆ๋ณ‘์ด ๊ฑธ๋ฆฌ๊ธฐ ์ „์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ์™€ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ด€๊ณ„๋ฅผ ํ‰๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ ์ž ํ•œ๋‹ค. ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•: ํ•œ๊ตญ์˜ ์ „ํ–ฅ์  ์ธ๊ตฌ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋กœ 2002๋…„๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 2010๋…„๊นŒ์ง€ NHIS-NSC(National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort, ๊ตญ๋ฏผ๊ฑด๊ฐ•๋ณดํ—˜๊ณต๋‹จ โ€“ ๊ตญ๊ฐ€ ํ‘œ๋ณธ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ)์˜ 502,342๋ช…์„ ๋Œ€์ƒ์œผ๋กœ ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๋ถ„์„์—๋Š” Cox ๋น„๋ก€ ์œ„ํ—˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ: ์ค‘์œ„์ˆ˜ 8.5๋…„(๋ฒ”์œ„=2.0-8.9)์˜ ์ถ”์ ๊ด€์ฐฐ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ, 496,971๋ช…์˜ ๋Œ€์ƒ์ž ์ค‘ 18,205๋ช…์ด ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„ ๊ธฐ๋ก์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๋‹จ๋ณ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋ถ„์„๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ณ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋ถ„์„ ์‹œ ๊ฐ๊ฐ ์—ฐ๊ด€์„ฑ์˜ ๋ฐฉํ–ฅ์ด ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ์žˆ์ง€๋งŒ ๋Œ€์‚ฌ ์ฆํ›„๊ตฐ ๊ด€๋ จ ์„ฑ๋ถ„๊ณผ ๋ฐœ๋ณ‘ ์ „์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ๋Š” ์˜ˆ์ธก๋œ ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„๊ณผ ์—ฐ๊ด€์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค. ์ ˆ์•ฝ ๋ชจํ˜•์˜ ์ƒˆ๋กœ ์ง„๋‹จ๋œ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋กœ๋Š” ์—ฐ๋ น, ์„ฑ๋ณ„, ์†Œ๋“ ์ˆ˜์ค€, ํก์—ฐ ์ƒํƒœ, ์•Œ์ฝ”์˜ฌ ์†Œ๋น„๋Ÿ‰, ์ฒด์งˆ๋Ÿ‰ ์ง€์ˆ˜, ๋ณ‘๋ ฅ, ํ†ตํ’ ๊ณผ๊ฑฐ๋ ฅ, ๋ถ€๊ฐ‘์ƒ์„  ํ•ญ์ง„์ฆ, ์—ผ์ฆ์„ฑ ์žฅ์งˆํ™˜ ๋“ฑ์ด ํฌํ•จ๋˜์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ณผ์ ํ•ฉ ๋ณด์ • Harrell์˜ C-statistics๋ฅผ ์ ์šฉํ•˜์˜€์„ ๋•Œ derivation cohort ์™€ validation cohort์˜ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋ ฅ์€ ๊ฐ๊ฐ 0.820 (95% CI, 0.806-0.834), 0.819 (95% CI, 0.798-0.838)์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ฒ€์ฆ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ์˜ ๋ชจ๋ธ์˜ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ๋„์™€ ํŠน์ด๋„๋Š” ๊ฐ๊ฐ 0.821 (95% CI, 0.760-0.888), 0.513 (95% CI, 0.390-0.656)์˜€๋‹ค. ๊ณ ์œ„ํ—˜์ž๋ฅผ ์ •์˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ Youden์˜ ์ตœ์  ๊ธฐ์ค€์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ๋ชจ๋ธ์˜ ๋ฏผ๊ฐ๋„์™€ ํŠน์ด๋„๋Š” 66%, 77.5%๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์œผ๋กœ ํ•œ ๊ฐ„์†Œํ™”๋œ ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ํ† ๋Œ€๋กœ ํ•˜์˜€์„ ๋•Œ ์—ฐ๋ น, ์„ฑ๋ณ„, BMI๊ฐ€ ์ƒˆ๋กœ ์ง„๋‹จ๋œ ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜ ์ ์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ฐจ์ง€ํ•˜์˜€๊ณ  ์ด ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ ์ผ์ˆ˜, ์„ฑ๋ณ„, ์—ฐ๋ น์ด 5๋…„ ๋‚ด ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์žฌ๋ฐœ์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์œ„ํ—˜์š”์ธ์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ฌ๋‹ค. ์ถ”์  ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ค‘๊ฐ„ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„ ๋™์•ˆ 7,086 (30.1%) ๊ฑด์˜ ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„ ์žฌ๋ฐœ์ด 23,576 ๋ช…์˜ ์ฐธ๊ฐ€์ž๋“ค๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค. ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์žฌ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋ˆ„์  ์œ„ํ—˜๋„๋Š” 2004๋…„์— 19.8 (95% CI, 19.3 to 20.4) ์—์„œ 37.6 (95% CI, 36.8 to 38.3) ๋กœ ์ถ”์ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ์—ฐ๋„์— ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜์˜€๋‹ค (8.5๋…„). ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์žฌ๋ฐœ์€ ์„ฑ๋ณ„, ์—ฐ๋ น, BMI, ๋ฐ ์ฒ˜๋ฐฉ์ „์˜ ์ด์ผ ์š”์ธ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์˜ˆ์ธก๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ  Harrells C-ํ†ต๊ณ„์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด ํ•ด์„ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ์™€ ๊ฒ€์ฆ ์ฝ”ํ˜ธํŠธ์—์„œ ๊ฐ๊ฐ 0.926 (95% CI, 0.907-0.945), 0.909 (95% CI, 0.879-0.935) ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฐ๋ก : ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋Š” ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์ด ์˜ˆ์ธก ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•์ƒํƒœ์ด๊ณ , ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ ๋ชจ๋ธ์€ ์œ„ํ—˜๊ตฐ์„ ์Šคํฌ๋ฆฌ๋‹ํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Œ์„ ์‹œ์‚ฌํ•œ๋‹ค. ๊ณ ์•ˆ๋œ ์˜ˆ์ธก ๋ฐฉ์ •์‹์€ ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ์— ์›น ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ๊ธฐ์˜ ํ˜•ํƒœ๋กœ ์ ์šฉํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ์˜๋ฃŒ์ง„๋“ค์ด ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์„ ์ƒ๋Œ€๋กœ ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜์„ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฐ ์ ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๋˜ํ•œ ์ตœ๊ทผ์— ์‹ ์žฅ๊ฒฐ์„์„ ์ง„๋‹จ๋ฐ›์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์˜ˆํ›„๋ฅผ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐœ์ธ์˜ ๊ฑด๊ฐ• ์ƒํƒœ๋ฅผ ์‹ ์žฅ ๊ฒฐ์„์˜ ์œ„ํ—˜๋„ ๋ถ€๋ถ„๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•˜๊ณ  ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€์˜ ์˜๊ฒฌ๊ณผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ง„๋‹จ ์‹œ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ๋” ์ •ํ™•๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์œผ๋ฉฐ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋œ ๋ชจ๋ธ์˜ ๋ณ€์ˆ˜๋Š” ์‹ค์ œ ์ž„์ƒ ํ˜„์žฅ์—์„œ ์ ์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ์šฉ์ด ํŽธ๋ฆฌํ•˜๋‹ค. ์ด ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ •๋ฐ€์˜๋ฃŒ์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€์—์„œ ๋˜ํ•œ ์™ธ์  ํƒ€๋‹น๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ด๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์œ„ํ—˜์ธ์ž๋ฅผ ํฌํ•จํ•จ์œผ๋กœ์จ ๋ชจ๋ธ์„ ๊ฐœ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์„ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด์ธ๋‹ค.Background A Complex Chronic Disease is a condition that involves multiple morbidities requiring the attention of multiple health care and facilities including community or home-based care. Prevention and mitigation of the effect of a single chronic condition, or constellation of conditions, requires improved measurement, and prediction. In developed nations, the prevalence of chronic diseases is increasing due to rapid aging of the population and the greater longevity of people with chronic conditions. Due to epidemiological transition, degenerative and life-style-related diseases have superseded infectious diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality in developed countries. These conditions have resulted into considerable cost both to individuals and to society through substantial health care needs and life-long disability. Thus, there is need to develop strategies to deal with age-related conditions, especially considering the rapidly ageing population and the associated increase in health care expenditure. Low back pain was one of the most important contributors to the Korean DALYs in 2013, while the prevalence of nephrolithiasis and burden of disease has increased in Korea over the past 20 years. This study focused on two complex diseases; low back pain and nephrolithiasis, attempting to provide means of estimating risks and preventing these conditions. Low Back Pain Introduction: Low back pain is a common debilitating condition with a considerable economic burden to society, and accounting for over 10% of total insurance claims in Korea. Low back pain occurs in approximately 60โ€“80% of people at some points in their lives, with a potential childhood onset, and an estimated 6-10% of acute low back pain patients developing chronic low back pain or experiencing repeated fluctuating pain episodes. There is still a knowledge gap regarding risk factors associated with onset of low back pain and its recurrence. Recently, longitudinal studies recommended assessing lipid profiles, atherosclerosis, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and their relationship with low back pain. A 2018 systematic review by McIntosh et al., reported absence of validated prediction models for chronic low back pain. This study aimed at derivation and validation of prediction models and simplified risk scores to estimate future risk of developing low back pain, its recurrence, and chronicity using data from general medical practice. The study also aimed to assess the association between risk factors for metabolic syndrome components and low back pain. Methods: A population based prospective cohort study using routinely collected data from general medical practice in Korea. A total of 502,342 participants from National Health Insurance Serviceโ€“National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) enrolled from 2002 to 2010. Cox proportional hazards model and Prentice, Williams and Peterson Gap Time models were used in the analysis. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.4 years (Range:1.49 to 8.99), there were 138,217 (31.5%) and 60,204 (13.2%) participants who experienced first onset of low back pain and chronic low back pain among 438,713 and 455,619 participants who were free of low back pain and chronic low back pain at baseline. From 503,482 participants, a consecutive cohort of 170,279 (33.8%) low back pain patients was constituted, and 49,462 (29.0%) and 106,927 (62.8%) patients experienced recurrent low back pain episodes within twelve (12) months and five (5) years of follow up, respectively. Metabolic syndrome components and premorbid conditions were associated with and predicted low back pain, although the direction of associations varied in univariate and multivariate analyses. The prediction equations of first onset of low back pain comprised of age, sex, and income grade, alcohol consumption, smoking status, physical exercise, body mass index, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, blood pressure and medical history of diseases. The prediction equations for 5-year low back pain recurrence comprised of age, sex, income grade, smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, total cholesterol, hypertension, physical activity, number of days of low back pain treatment and medical history of diseases. The Harrells C-statistics for the prediction equations in the validation cohorts were 0.804 (95% CI, 0.796-0.812), 0.643 (95% CI, 0.629-0.656), 0.857 (95% CI, 0.847-0.866) and 0.759 (95% CI, 0.745-0.774) for first onset of low back pain, chronic low back pain, 5-year recurrent low back pain and 12-months low back pain recurrence, respectively. Based on simplified points based risk scores, age, disc degeneration, and sex conferred highest risk points for low back pain onset, whereas age, total days of prescription and disc degeneration conferred highest risk for 5-year recurrence. Conclusion: This study implies low back pain is predictable, preventable and treatment of initial episode can effectively reduce risk of recurrence. The study also provides evidence that metabolic syndrome components are associated with low back pain outcomes and premorbid conditions are predictive of future low back pain, chronicity and its recurrence. Of particular interest, there was an inverse association between hypertension and chronic low back pain. However, there are some differences in predictors of onset, predictors of recurrence and chronicity of low back pain. Five low back pain prediction models that can estimate individuals risk of developing and experiencing recurrent episodes have been developed and validated in a nationwide sample cohort using data from general practice. However, the derived equations cannot substitute the clinical expertise, but rather augment precision in clinical decision-making. Knowledge of the overall health status of a patient with respect to low back pain risk and expert knowledge from clinical practitioners will create a much clearer picture than either one alone. These variables in the models can easily be obtained in clinical practice and the points system is simple to use. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation or updating the models by incorporating other risk predictors in other settings especially in this era of precision medicine. Nephrolithiasis Introduction: Nephrolithiasis is the presence of renal calculi in the urinary tract and kidneys caused by disruptions in the balance between solubility and precipitation of salts. Nephrolithiasis is a multifactorial disorder with complex aetiology and with a prevalence approximating 10% in Western countries. A study by Romero et al. reported a 5.0% prevalence of nephrolithiasis in South Korea and the disease burden has been increasing but to date no population specific nephrolithiasis risk prediction models have been developed and validated in Korea. Nephrolithiasis has been linked to metabolic syndrome, although conclusions have not been drawn. Well-validated risk prediction models help to identify individuals at high risk of diseases and to take preventive measures. Despite the abundant epidemiologic research on nephrolithiasis, longitudinal studies have not attempted to develop and validate nephrolithiasis risk prediction models using routinely collected medical data. This study aimed to develop and validate nephrolithiasis prediction equations and simplified risk scores from risk predictors that individuals and clinicians are likely to know. In addition, the study aimed to assess the relationship between metabolic syndrome risk factors, premorbid conditions, and nephrolithiasis. Methods: A prospective population based cohort study in Korea. A total of 502,342 participants from the National Health Insurance Serviceโ€“National Sample Cohort (NHIS-NSC) enrolled from 2002 to 2010. Cox proportional hazard model was used in the analysis. Results: During a median follow-up of 8.5 years (Range=2.0-8.9) and among 496,971 participants, there were 18,205 (3.7%) cases of nephrolithiasis. Metabolic syndrome components and premorbid conditions were associated with and predicted nephrolithiasis, although the strength of associations varied in univariate and multivariate analyses. The risk predictors in the parsimonious model for newly diagnosed nephrolithiasis included age, sex, income grade, alcohol consumption, body mass index, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, history of diagnosed gout, hyperparathyroidism and inflammatory bowel disease. The Harrells C-statistic was 0.820 (95% CI, 0.806-0.834) and 0.819 (95% CI, 0.798-0.838) in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Using the optimal threshold determined by Youdens index to define high-risk individuals, the models sensitivity and specificity in the validation cohort were 76.5% (95% CI, 75.4% to 77.5%) and 62.0% (95% CI, 61.8% to 62.3%), respectively. During the median follow-up period, there were 7,086 (30.1%) recurrent cases of nephrolithiasis in the consecutive cohort of 23,576 patients. The cumulative risk of nephrolithiasis recurrence increased from 19.8 (95% CI, 19.3 to 20.4) to 37.6 (95% CI, 36.8 to 38.3) during a 5-year follow up period. The parsimonious model for 5-year nephrolithiasis recurrence comprised of sex, age, body mass index, and total number of days of prescription. The Harrells C-statistic was 0.926 (95% CI, 0.907-0.945) and 0.909 (95% CI, 0.879-0.935) for derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. Using the optimal threshold determined by Youdens index to define high-risk individuals, the models sensitivity and specificity in the validation cohort were 66.0% (95% CI, 64.1% to 68.0%) and 77.5% (95% CI, 76.4% to 78.6%), respectively. Based on the simplified points based nephrolithiasis risk scores, age, sex, and body mass index conferred highest risk points for newly diagnosed nephrolithiasis, whereas total days of prescription, sex, and age conferred highest risk for 5-year nephrolithiasis recurrence. Conclusion This study implies nephrolithiasis might be a predictable condition, and the models might be used to screen a high-risk group. The derived prediction equations can be availed to general population in form of web-based calculator or used by medical practitioners to assess nephrolithiasis risk among health individuals and prognosis among patients who have recently developed nephrolithiasis. Knowledge of the overall health status of a patient with respect to nephrolithiasis risk and expert knowledge from clinical practitioners will create a much clearer picture than either one alone. These variables in the derived models can easily be obtained in clinical practice and the points system is simple to use. This study also offers an opportunity for external validation or updating the model by incorporating other risk predictors in other settings especially in this era of precision medicine.I. Introduction 1 1.1 Background 2 1.2 Low Back Pain 4 1.3 Nephrolithiasis 9 II. Literature Review 14 2.1 Literature Review: Low Back Pain 15 2.2 Risk factors and pathogenesis of low back pain 17 2.3 Association between lifestyle risk factors and low back pain 20 2.4. Association between anthropometric measures and low back pain. 22 2.5. Metabolic syndrome components and risk factors 24 2.6 Comorbidity, premorbid diseases, psychosocial and hereditary risk factors 29 2.7 Literature Review: Nephrolithiasis 36 2.8 Association between demographic factors and nephrolithiasis 39 2.9 Association between lifestyle risk factors and nephrolithiasis 40 2.10 Association between anthropometric measures and nephrolithiasis. 42 2.11 Association between metabolic syndrome and nephrolithiasis 44 2.12 Association between diseases, medication, genetics, and nephrolithiasis 47 III. Methods and Materials 52 3.1 Study design, setting and cohort description 53 3.2 Data extraction and choice of risk predictors 54 3.3 Assessment and measurement of covariates 55 3.4 Case definition, prospective ascertainment, and exclusion criteria 57 3.5 Statistical analysis 60 3.6 Validation and performance evaluation of risk prediction models 63 3.7 Measures of discrimination and predictive accuracy 73 3.8 Calculation of personalized risk based on models and simplified risk scores 90 IV. Results 95 4.1 Prediction of first onset of low back pain. 96 4.2 Prediction of chronic low back pain 124 4.3 Prediction of five (5-year) low back pain recurrence risk 154 4.4 Prediction of low back pain recurrence within twelve (12) months 183 4.5 Modelling low back pain using Prentice, Williams and Peterson models 212 4.6 Prediction of nephrolithiasis Risk 229 4.7 Prediction of 5-year nephrolithiasis recurrence risk 255 4.8 Sensitivity analysis for models based on selected subgroups 281 V. Discussion 284 5.1 Newly diagnosed low back pain 285 5.2 Chronic low back pain 290 5.3 Low back pain recurrence within five (5) years 294 5.4 Low back pain recurrence within twelve (12) months 299 5.5 Multiple episodic low back pain 303 5.6 Newly diagnosed nephrolithiasis 306 5.7 Nephrolithiasis recurrence within five (5) years 312 VI. Summaries and conclusions 316 6.1 Low Back Pain 317 6.2 Nephrolithiasis 320 References 324 Korean Abstract (๊ตญ๋ฌธ ์ดˆ๋ก) 354Docto

    The Use of Skeletal Muscle to Amplify Action Potentials in Transected Peripheral Nerves

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    Upper limb amputees suffer with problems associated with control and attachment of prostheses. Skin-surface electrodes placed over the stump, which detect myoelectric signals, are traditionally used to control hand movements. However, this method is unintuitive, the electrodes lift-off, and signal selectivity can be an issue. One solution to these limitations is to implant electrodes directly on muscles. Another approach is to implant electrodes directly into the nerves that innervate the muscles. A significant challenge with both solutions is the reliable transmission of biosignals across the skin barrier. In this thesis, I investigated the use of implantable muscle electrodes in an ovine model using myoelectrodes in combination with a bone-anchor, acting as a conduit for signal transmission. High-quality readings were obtained which were significantly better than skin-surface electrode readings. I further investigated the effect of electrode configurations to achieve the best signal quality. For direct recording from nerves, I tested the effect of adsorbed endoneural basement membrane proteins on nerve regeneration in vivo using microchannel neural interfaces implanted in rat sciatic nerves. Muscle and nerve signal recordings were obtained and improvements in sciatic nerve function were observed. Direct skeletal fixation of a prosthesis to the amputation stump using a bone-anchor has been proposed as a solution to skin problems associated with traditional socket-type prostheses. However, there remains a concern about the risk of infection between the implant and skin. Achieving a durable seal at this interface is therefore crucial, which formed the final part of the thesis. Bone-anchors were optimised for surface pore size and coatings to facilitate binding of human dermal fibroblasts to optimise skin-implant seal in an ovine model. Implants silanised with Arginine-Glycine-Aspartic Acid experienced significantly increased dermal tissue infiltration. This approach may therefore improve the soft tissue seal, and thus success of bone-anchored implants. By addressing both the way prostheses are attached to the amputation stump, by way of direct skeletal fixation, as well as providing high fidelity biosignals for high-level intuitive prosthetic control, I aim to further the field of limb loss rehabilitation

    2015 Abstract Book

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    Life Sciences Program Tasks and Bibliography for FY 1997

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    This document includes information on all peer reviewed projects funded by the Office of Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications, Life Sciences Division during fiscal year 1997. This document will be published annually and made available to scientists in the space life sciences field both as a hard copy and as an interactive internet web page

    Life Sciences Program Tasks and Bibliography for FY 1996

    Get PDF
    This document includes information on all peer reviewed projects funded by the Office of Life and Microgravity Sciences and Applications, Life Sciences Division during fiscal year 1996. This document will be published annually and made available to scientists in the space life sciences field both as a hard copy and as an interactive Internet web page
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