Stakeholder perspectives on new ways of delivering unscheduled health care: the role of ownership and organisational identity

<b>Rationale, aims and objectives</b>: To explore stakeholder perspectives of the implementation of a new, national integrated nurse-led telephone advice and consultation service (NHS 24), comparing the views of stakeholders from different health care organisations. <b>Methods</b>: Semi-structured interviews with 26 stakeholders including partner organisations located in primary and secondary unscheduled care settings (general practitioner (GP) out-of-hours co-operative; accident and emergency department; national ambulance service), members of NHS 24 and national policymakers. Attendance at key meetings, documentary review and email implementation diaries provided a contextual history of events with which interview data could be compared. <b>Results</b>: The contextual history of events highlighted a fast-paced implementation process, with little time for reflection. Key areas of partner concern were increasing workload, the clinical safety of nurse triage and the lack of communication across the organisations. Concerns were most apparent within the GP out-of-hours co-operative, leading to calls for the dissolution of the partnership. Accident and emergency and ambulance service responses were more conciliatory, suggesting that such problems were to be expected within the developmental phase of a new organisation. Further exploration of these responses highlighted the sense of ownership within the GP co-operative, with GPs having both financial and philosophical ownership of the co-operative. This was not apparent within the other two partner organisations, in particular the ambulance service, which operated on a regional model very similar to that of NHS 24. <b>Conclusions</b>: As the delivery of unscheduled primary health care crosses professional boundaries and locations, different organisations and professional groups must develop new ways of partnership working, developing trust and confidence in each other. The results of this study highlight, for the first time, the key importance of understanding the professional ownership and identity of individual organisations, in order to facilitate the most effective mechanisms to enable that partnership working

Essays on health care quality: Timeliness, equity, and efficiency

According to the National Academy of Medicine (NAM) (formerly called the Institute of Medicine), a quality health care system embodies six attributes: timeliness, equity, safety, efficiency, effectiveness, and patient-centeredness. Timeliness is to avoid unnecessary delays in care delivery for patients and caregivers; equity is to ensure that the quality of care that patients receive does not vary based on their personal characteristics; safety is to ensure that the care that is intended to help patients does not harm them; efficiency is to avoid waste and optimize resource allocation to improve care delivery; effective care is one that relies on sound scientific knowledge and delivers the most benefit to the patient; and patient-centeredness concerns the contributions of patients, their family members, and care givers to the patient\u27s health. Thus, to make progress in quality care improvement, every aspect of the health care system as related to these six items must be improved. Recent efforts targeted at improving quality of care in urgent care settings have included benchmarking and performance measurement, financial incentivisation, public reporting of performance data, adoption and use of health information technology, and other quality improvement initiatives. With the advent of artificial intelligence (AI), many believe there is potential for transformation of the health care industry through adoption of AI technologies. Through a series of essays, this dissertation contributes to the literature on timeliness, equity, and efficiency in the emergency department. The first essay assesses recent trends in emergency department throughput in the United States. The second assesses current trends and sources of inequities in emergency department wait time across racial and ethnic groups. In the third, a model aimed at improving efficiency in the emergency department is developed ? an explainable machine learning model that leverages text data to predict patient disposition during triage is developed

Deep Continual Multimodal Multitask Models for Out-of-Hospital Emergency Medical Call Incidents Triage Support in the Presence of Dataset Shifts

[ES] El triaje de los incidentes de urgencias y emergencias extrahospitalarias representa un reto difícil, debido a las limitaciones temporales y a la incertidumbre. Además, errores en este proceso pueden tener graves consecuencias para los pacientes. Por lo tanto, cualquier herramienta o estrategia novedosa que mejore estos procesos ofrece un valor sustancial en términos de atención al paciente y gestión global de los incidentes. La hipótesis en la que se basa esta tesis es que el Aprendizaje Automático, concretamente el Aprendizaje Profundo, puede mejorar estos procesos proporcionando estimaciones de la gravedad de los incidentes, mediante el análisis de millones de datos derivados de llamadas de emergencia de la Comunitat Valenciana (España) que abarcan desde 2009 hasta 2019. Por tanto, esta tesis profundiza en el diseño y desarrollo de modelos basados en Aprendizaje Profundo Multitarea que aprovechan los datos multimodales asociados a eventos de urgencias y emergencias extrahospitalarias. Nuestro objetivo principal era predecir si el incidente suponía una situación de riesgo vital, la demora admisible de la respuesta y si era competencia del sistema de emergencias o de atención primaria. Utilizando datos disponibles entre 2009 y 2012, se observaron mejoras sustanciales en las métricas macro F1, con ganancias del 12.5% para la clasificación de riesgo vital, del 17.5% para la demora en la respuesta y del 5.1% para la clasificación por jurisdicción, en comparación con el protocolo interno de triaje de la Comunidad Valenciana. Sin embargo, los sistemas, los protocolos de triaje y las prácticas operativas evolucionan de forma natural con el tiempo. Los modelos que mostraron un rendimiento excelente con el conjunto de datos inicial de 2009 a 2012 no demostraron la misma eficacia cuando se evaluaron con datos posteriores que abarcaban de 2014 a 2019. Estos últimos habían sufrido modificaciones en comparación con los anteriores, que dieron lugar a variaciones en las distribuciones de probabilidad, caracterizadas e investigadas meticulosamente en esta tesis. Continuando con nuestra investigación, nos centramos en la incorporación de técnicas de Aprendizaje Continuo Profundo en nuestros desarrollos. Gracias a ello, pudimos mitigar sustancialmente los efectos adversos consecuencia de los cambios distribucionales sobre el rendimiento. Los resultados indican que, si bien las fluctuaciones de rendimiento no se eliminan por completo, pueden mantenerse dentro de un rango manejable. En particular, con respecto a la métrica F1, cuando las variaciones distribucionales son ligeras o moderadas, el comportamiento se mantiene estable, sin variar más de un 2.5%. Además, nuestra tesis demuestra la viabilidad de construir herramientas auxiliares que permitan a los operadores interactuar con estos complejos modelos. En consecuencia, sin interrumpir el flujo de trabajo de los profesionales, se hace posible proporcionar retroalimentación mediante predicciones de probabilidad para cada clase de etiqueta de gravedad y tomar las medidas pertinentes. Por último, los resultados de esta tesis tienen implicaciones directas en la gestión de las urgencias y emergencias extrahospitalarias en la Comunidad Valenciana, al integrarse el modelo final resultante en los centros de atención de llamadas. Este modelo utilizará los datos proporcionados por los operadores telefónicos para calcular automáticamente las predicciones de gravedad, que luego se compararán con las generadas por el protocolo de triaje interno. Cualquier disparidad entre estas predicciones desencadenará la derivación del incidente a un coordinador médico, que supervisará su tratamiento. Por lo tanto, nuestra tesis, además de realizar importantes contribuciones al campo de la Investigación en Aprendizaje Automático Biomédico, también conlleva implicaciones sustanciales para mejorar la gestión de las urgencias y emergencias extrahospitalarias en el contexto de la Comunidad Valenciana.[CA] El triatge dels incidents d'urgències i emergències extrahospitalàries representa un repte difícil, a causa de les limitacions temporals i de la incertesa. A més, els errors en aquest procés poden tindre greus conseqüències per als pacients. Per tant, qualsevol eina o estratègia innovadora que millore aquests processos ofereix un valor substancial en termes d'atenció al pacient i gestió global dels incidents. La hipòtesi en què es basa aquesta tesi és que l'Aprenentatge Automàtic, concretament l'Aprenentatge Profund, pot millorar significativament aquests processos proporcionant estimacions de la gravetat dels incidents, mitjançant l'anàlisi de milions de dades derivades de trucades d'emergència de la Comunitat Valenciana (Espanya) que abasten des de 2009 fins a 2019. Per tant, aquesta tesi aprofundeix en el disseny i desenvolupament de models basats en Aprenentatge Profund Multitasca que aprofiten dades multimodals d'incidents mèdics d'urgències i emergències extrahospitalàries. El nostre objectiu principal era predir si l'incident suposava una situació de risc vital, la demora admissible de la resposta i si era competència del sistema d'emergències o d'atenció primària. Utilitzant dades disponibles entre 2009 i 2012, es van observar millores substancials en les mètriques macro F1, amb guanys del 12.5% per a la classificació de risc vital, del 17.5% per a la demora en la resposta i del 5.1% per a la classificació per jurisdicció, en comparació amb el protocol intern de triatge de la Comunitat Valenciana. Tanmateix, els protocols de triatge i les pràctiques operatives evolucionen de forma natural amb el temps. Els models que van mostrar un rendiment excel·lent amb el conjunt de dades inicial de 2009 a 2012 no van demostrar la mateixa eficàcia quan es van avaluar amb dades posteriors que abastaven de 2014 a 2019. Aquestes últimes havien sofert modificacions en comparació amb les anteriors, que van donar lloc a variacions en les distribucions de probabilitat, caracteritzades i investigades minuciosament en aquesta tesi. Continuant amb la nostra investigació, ens vam centrar en la incorporació de tècniques d'Aprenentatge Continu als nostres desenvolupaments. Gràcies a això, vam poder mitigar substancialment els efectes adversos sobre el rendiment conseqüència dels canvis distribucionals. Els resultats indiquen que, si bé les fluctuacions de rendiment no s'eliminen completament al llarg del temps, poden mantenir-se dins d'un rang manejable. En particular, respecte a la mètrica F1, quan les variacions distribucionals són lleugeres o moderades, el comportament es manté estable, sense variar més d'un 2.5%. A més, la nostra tesi demostra la viabilitat de construir eines auxiliars que permeten als operadors interactuar amb aquests models complexos. En conseqüència, sense interrompre el flux de treball dels professionals, es fa possible proporcionar retroalimentació mitjançant prediccions de probabilitat per a cada classe d'etiqueta de gravetat i prendre les mesures pertinents. Finalment, els resultats d'aquesta tesi tenen implicacions directes en la gestió de les urgències i emergències extrahospitalàries a la Comunitat Valenciana, al integrar-se el model final resultant als centres d'atenció de telefonades. Aquest model utilitzarà les dades proporcionades pels operadors telefònics per calcular automàticament les prediccions de gravetat, que després es compararan amb les generades pel protocol de triatge intern. Qualsevol disparitat entre aquestes prediccions desencadenarà la derivació de l'incident a un coordinador mèdic, que supervisarà el seu tractament. Per tant, és evident que la nostra tesi, a més de realitzar importants contribucions al camp de la Investigació en Aprenentatge Automàtic Biomèdic, també comporta implicacions substancials per a millorar la gestió de les urgències i emergències extrahospitalàries en el context de la Comunitat Valenciana.[EN] Triage for out-of-hospital emergency incidents represents a tough challenge, primarily due to time constraints and uncertainty. Furthermore, errors in this process can have severe consequences for patients. Therefore, any novel tool or strategy that enhances these processes can offer substantial value in terms of patient care and overall management of out-of-hospital emergency medical incidents. The hypothesis upon which this thesis is based is that Machine Learning, specifically Deep Learning, can improve these processes by providing estimations of the severity of incidents, by analyzing millions of data derived from emergency calls from the Valencian Region (Spain) spanning from 2009 to 2019. Hence, this thesis delves into designing and developing Deep Multitask Learning models that leverage multimodal out-of-hospital emergency medical data. Our primary objective was to predict whether the incident posed a life-threatening situation, the admissible response delay, and whether it fell under the jurisdiction of the emergency system or primary care. Using data available from 2009 to 2012, the results obtained were promising. We observed substantial improvements in macro F1-scores, with gains of 12.5% for life-threatening classification, 17.5% for response delay, and 5.1% for jurisdiction classification, compared to the in-house triage protocol of the Valencian Region. However, systems, dispatch protocols, and operational practices naturally evolve over time. Models that exhibited excellent performance with the initial dataset from 2009 to 2012 did not demonstrate the same efficacy when evaluated on data spanning from 2014 to 2019. This later dataset had undergone modifications compared to the earlier one, which led to dataset shifts, which we have meticulously characterized and investigated in this thesis. Continuing our research, we incorporated Deep Continual Learning techniques in our developments. As a result, we could substantially mitigate the adverse performance effects consequence of dataset shifts. The results indicate that, while performance fluctuations are not completely eliminated, they can be kept within a manageable range. In particular, with respect to the F1-score, when distributional variations fall within the light to moderate range, the performance remains stable, not varying by more than 2.5%. Furthermore, our thesis demonstrates the feasibility of building auxiliary tools that enable dispatchers to interact with these complex deep models. Consequently, without disrupting professionals' workflow, it becomes possible to provide feedback through probability predictions for each severity label class and take appropriate actions based on these predictions. Finally, the outcomes of this thesis hold direct implications for the management of out-of-hospital emergency medical incidents in the Valencian Region. The final model resulting from our research is slated for integration into the emergency medical dispatch centers of the Valencian Region. This model will utilize data provided by dispatchers to automatically compute severity predictions, which will then be compared with those generated by the in-house triage protocol. Any disparities between these predictions will trigger the referral of the incident to a physician coordinator, who will oversee its handling. Therefore, it is evident that our thesis, in addition to making significant contributions to the field of Biomedical Machine Learning Research, also carries substantial implications for enhancing the management of out-of-hospital emergencies in the context of the Valencian Region.Ferri Borredà, P. (2024). Deep Continual Multimodal Multitask Models for Out-of-Hospital Emergency Medical Call Incidents Triage Support in the Presence of Dataset Shifts [Tesis doctoral]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/20319

ARTEMIS: AI-driven Robotic Triage Labeling and Emergency Medical Information System

Mass casualty incidents (MCIs) pose a formidable challenge to emergency medical services by overwhelming available resources and personnel. Effective victim assessment is paramount to minimizing casualties during such a crisis. In this paper, we introduce ARTEMIS, an AI-driven Robotic Triage Labeling and Emergency Medical Information System. This system comprises a deep learning model for acuity labeling that is integrated with a robot, that performs the preliminary assessment of injury severity in patients and assigns appropriate triage labels. Additionally, we have developed a frontend (graphical user interface) that is updated by the robots in real time and is accessible to the first responders. To validate the reliability of our proposed algorithmic triage protocol, we employed an off-the-shelf robot kit equipped with sensors for vital sign acquisition. A controlled laboratory simulation of an MCI was conducted to assess the system's performance and effectiveness in real-world scenarios resulting in a triage-level classification accuracy of 92%. This noteworthy achievement underscores the model's proficiency in discerning crucial patterns for accurate triage classification, showcasing its promising potential in healthcare applications

A novel Network Science Algorithm for Improving Triage of Patients

Patient triage plays a crucial role in healthcare, ensuring timely and appropriate care based on the urgency of patient conditions. Traditional triage methods heavily rely on human judgment, which can be subjective and prone to errors. Recently, a growing interest has been in leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) to develop algorithms for triaging patients. This paper presents the development of a novel algorithm for triaging patients. It is based on the analysis of patient data to produce decisions regarding their prioritization. The algorithm was trained on a comprehensive data set containing relevant patient information, such as vital signs, symptoms, and medical history. The algorithm was designed to accurately classify patients into triage categories through rigorous preprocessing and feature engineering. Experimental results demonstrate that our algorithm achieved high accuracy and performance, outperforming traditional triage methods. By incorporating computer science into the triage process, healthcare professionals can benefit from improved efficiency, accuracy, and consistency, prioritizing patients effectively and optimizing resource allocation. Although further research is needed to address challenges such as biases in training data and model interpretability, the development of AI-based algorithms for triaging patients shows great promise in enhancing healthcare delivery and patient outcomes

Modeling patient flow in the emergency department using machine learning and simulation

Recently, the combination of machine learning (ML) and simulation is gaining a lot of attention. This paper presents a novel application of ML within the simulation to improve patient flow within an emergency department (ED). An ML model used within a real ED simulation model to quantify the effect of detouring a patient out of the ED on the length of stay (LOS) and door-to-doctor time (DTDT) as a response to the prediction of patient admission to the hospital from the ED. The ML model trained using a set of six features including the patient age, arrival day, arrival hour of the day, and the triage level. The prediction model used a decision tree (DT) model, which is trained using historical data achieves a 75% accuracy. The set of rules extracted from the DT are coded within the simulation model. Given a certain probability of free inpatient beds, the predicted admitted patient is then pulled out from the ED to inpatient units to alleviate the crowding within the ED. The used policy combined with adding specific ED resources achieve 9.39% and 8.18% reduction in LOS and DTDT, respectively