CAN CHANGE PREDICTION HELP PRIORITISE REDESIGN WORK IN FUTURE ENGINEERING SYSTEMS?

Future design environments will necessitate improved management of the propagation and impacts of changes. To ascertain whether change prediction can assist in making better work prioritisation decisions, this paper develops a new simulation approach and applies it to a model of a complex aerospace product, which was elicited from industry. We use an accepted technique to generate potential change propagation trees and apply Monte Carlo methods to generate a sample space within which multiple scheduling policies could be evaluated and compared. The experiments reveal that poor coordination of change activity can result in significant process inefficiencies, that the potential for inefficiency increases for larger change networks, and that a modest ability to accurately predict change propagation in the specific case at hand could have a dramatic effect in reducing unnecessary rework. The experiments also suggest that the capability of predicting multiple steps of change propagation would provide only minimal additional improvement.International Design Conference - DESIGN 201

Experimental analysis of computer system dependability

This paper reviews an area which has evolved over the past 15 years: experimental analysis of computer system dependability. Methodologies and advances are discussed for three basic approaches used in the area: simulated fault injection, physical fault injection, and measurement-based analysis. The three approaches are suited, respectively, to dependability evaluation in the three phases of a system's life: design phase, prototype phase, and operational phase. Before the discussion of these phases, several statistical techniques used in the area are introduced. For each phase, a classification of research methods or study topics is outlined, followed by discussion of these methods or topics as well as representative studies. The statistical techniques introduced include the estimation of parameters and confidence intervals, probability distribution characterization, and several multivariate analysis methods. Importance sampling, a statistical technique used to accelerate Monte Carlo simulation, is also introduced. The discussion of simulated fault injection covers electrical-level, logic-level, and function-level fault injection methods as well as representative simulation environments such as FOCUS and DEPEND. The discussion of physical fault injection covers hardware, software, and radiation fault injection methods as well as several software and hybrid tools including FIAT, FERARI, HYBRID, and FINE. The discussion of measurement-based analysis covers measurement and data processing techniques, basic error characterization, dependency analysis, Markov reward modeling, software-dependability, and fault diagnosis. The discussion involves several important issues studies in the area, including fault models, fast simulation techniques, workload/failure dependency, correlated failures, and software fault tolerance

A collaborative platform for integrating and optimising Computational Fluid Dynamics analysis requests

A Virtual Integration Platform (VIP) is described which provides support for the integration of Computer-Aided Design (CAD) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis tools into an environment that supports the use of these tools in a distributed collaborative manner. The VIP has evolved through previous EU research conducted within the VRShips-ROPAX 2000 (VRShips) project and the current version discussed here was developed predominantly within the VIRTUE project but also within the SAFEDOR project. The VIP is described with respect to the support it provides to designers and analysts in coordinating and optimising CFD analysis requests. Two case studies are provided that illustrate the application of the VIP within HSVA: the use of a panel code for the evaluation of geometry variations in order to improve propeller efficiency; and, the use of a dedicated maritime RANS code (FreSCo) to improve the wake distribution for the VIRTUE tanker. A discussion is included detailing the background, application and results from the use of the VIP within these two case studies as well as how the platform was of benefit during the development and a consideration of how it can benefit HSVA in the future