4,903 research outputs found
Recent advances in directional statistics
Mainstream statistical methodology is generally applicable to data observed
in Euclidean space. There are, however, numerous contexts of considerable
scientific interest in which the natural supports for the data under
consideration are Riemannian manifolds like the unit circle, torus, sphere and
their extensions. Typically, such data can be represented using one or more
directions, and directional statistics is the branch of statistics that deals
with their analysis. In this paper we provide a review of the many recent
developments in the field since the publication of Mardia and Jupp (1999),
still the most comprehensive text on directional statistics. Many of those
developments have been stimulated by interesting applications in fields as
diverse as astronomy, medicine, genetics, neurology, aeronautics, acoustics,
image analysis, text mining, environmetrics, and machine learning. We begin by
considering developments for the exploratory analysis of directional data
before progressing to distributional models, general approaches to inference,
hypothesis testing, regression, nonparametric curve estimation, methods for
dimension reduction, classification and clustering, and the modelling of time
series, spatial and spatio-temporal data. An overview of currently available
software for analysing directional data is also provided, and potential future
developments discussed.Comment: 61 page
An agent-driven semantical identifier using radial basis neural networks and reinforcement learning
Due to the huge availability of documents in digital form, and the deception
possibility raise bound to the essence of digital documents and the way they
are spread, the authorship attribution problem has constantly increased its
relevance. Nowadays, authorship attribution,for both information retrieval and
analysis, has gained great importance in the context of security, trust and
copyright preservation. This work proposes an innovative multi-agent driven
machine learning technique that has been developed for authorship attribution.
By means of a preprocessing for word-grouping and time-period related analysis
of the common lexicon, we determine a bias reference level for the recurrence
frequency of the words within analysed texts, and then train a Radial Basis
Neural Networks (RBPNN)-based classifier to identify the correct author. The
main advantage of the proposed approach lies in the generality of the semantic
analysis, which can be applied to different contexts and lexical domains,
without requiring any modification. Moreover, the proposed system is able to
incorporate an external input, meant to tune the classifier, and then
self-adjust by means of continuous learning reinforcement.Comment: Published on: Proceedings of the XV Workshop "Dagli Oggetti agli
Agenti" (WOA 2014), Catania, Italy, Sepember. 25-26, 201
Simulation Intelligence: Towards a New Generation of Scientific Methods
The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the
field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that
captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine
Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and
integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific
computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this
merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of
simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the
components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we
explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating
system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and
multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3)
Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based
modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8)
Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated
efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific
discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate
science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent
behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack,
detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges
and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and
the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these
technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis
type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for
human-machine teaming and automated science
Gaussian Process Learning-based Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow
In this letter, we present a novel Gaussian Process Learning-based
Probabilistic Optimal Power Flow (GP-POPF) for solving POPF under renewable and
load uncertainties of arbitrary distribution. The proposed method relies on a
non-parametric Bayesian inference-based uncertainty propagation approach,
called Gaussian Process (GP). We also suggest a new type of sensitivity called
Subspace-wise Sensitivity, using observations on the interpretability of
GP-POPF hyperparameters. The simulation results on 14-bus and 30-bus systems
show that the proposed method provides reasonably accurate solutions when
compared with Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) solutions at different levels of
uncertain renewable penetration as well as load uncertainties, while requiring
much less number of samples and elapsed time
Modeling sequences and temporal networks with dynamic community structures
In evolving complex systems such as air traffic and social organizations,
collective effects emerge from their many components' dynamic interactions.
While the dynamic interactions can be represented by temporal networks with
nodes and links that change over time, they remain highly complex. It is
therefore often necessary to use methods that extract the temporal networks'
large-scale dynamic community structure. However, such methods are subject to
overfitting or suffer from effects of arbitrary, a priori imposed timescales,
which should instead be extracted from data. Here we simultaneously address
both problems and develop a principled data-driven method that determines
relevant timescales and identifies patterns of dynamics that take place on
networks as well as shape the networks themselves. We base our method on an
arbitrary-order Markov chain model with community structure, and develop a
nonparametric Bayesian inference framework that identifies the simplest such
model that can explain temporal interaction data.Comment: 15 Pages, 6 figures, 2 table
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