A Probabilistic Risk Analysis for Taipei Seismic Hazards: An Application of HAZ-Taiwan with its Pre-processor and Post-processor

This paper employs probabilistic risk analysis to estimate exceedance probability curves, average annual loss (AAL) and probable maximum loss (PML) for seismic hazards. It utilizes and event-driven loss estimation model, HAZ-Taiwan, and develops its pre-processing and post-processing software modules. First, the pre-processingmodule establishes a set of hazard-consistent scenarios. Then, the HAZ-Taiwan modelextimates hazards, vulnerabilities and economic losses for each scenario. Finally, the aggregate and occurrence exceedance probability curves for losses and theirconfidence intervals are simulated using the Monte Carlo simulation in thepost-processing module. The methodology is then applied to analyze seismic risks in Taipei. It is found that the exceedance probability of an aggregate loss of NT$40.398 billion is 0.001. This amount of loss is approximately 2.78$37.41-43.12 billion. The average annual loss of buildings in Taipei is NT$1.06 billion r approximately 0.07% of the total stock.probabilistic risk analysis, Hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis, exceedance probability curve, HAZ-Taiwan

Urban Seismology in the Taipei Metropolitan Area: Review and Prospective

A strong collision between the Eurasian and Philippine Sea Plates causes high seismicity in the Taiwan region. A substantial number of cities and large towns exist on thick sediments in western Taiwan. Larger-magnitude inland earthquakes, for example the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, can cause serious damage in urban areas. Consequently, urban seismology is of great interest to the local seismological community. The Taipei Metropolitan Area (TMA) is the political, economic, and cultural center of Taiwan. It is situated over a region where the Philippine Sea plate subducts the Eurasian plate. Although seismicity in the TMA is lower than other areas of Taiwan, earthquakes still occur. Seismic risk mitigation is of grave concern in the TMA because of its high population, number of tall buildings, mass rapid transit system, and two nearby nuclear power plants. In this article, procedures for seismic risk mitigation, previous studies, core issues for future research and related topics are described and reviewed

台湾少数民族の災害復興フレームワーク：2009年モラコット台風の復興過程を事例として

京都大学新制・課程博士博士(地球環境学)甲第24152号地環博第230号新制||地環||44(附属図書館)京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻(主査)准教授 落合 知帆, 教授 小林 広英, 教授 西前 出, 教授 勝見 武, 准教授 TRENCHER Gregory学位規則第4条第1項該当Doctor of Global Environmental StudiesKyoto UniversityDFA

Multi-objective community-level sesimic retrofit optimization combining social vulnerability with an engineering framework for community resiliency, A

2015 Spring.Includes bibliographical references.This dissertation presents a multi-objective optimization framework for community resiliency by providing decision maker(s) at the local, state, or other government level(s) with an optimal seismic retrofit plan for their community's woodframe building stock. A genetic algorithm was selected to perform the optimization due to its robustness in multi-objective problem solving. In the present framework, the algorithm provides a set of optimal community-level retrofit plans for the woodframe building inventory based on the socio-demographic characteristics of the focal community, Los Angeles, California. The woodframe building inventory was modeled using 37 archetypes designed to several historical and state-of-the-art seismic design provisions and methodologies. The performance of the archetypes was quantified in an extensive numerical study using nonlinear time history analysis. Experimental testing was conducted at full scale on a three-story soft-story woodframe building. The experimental testing investigated the seismic performance of several retrofit strategies for use in the framework, and the results were used in development of a metric correlating inter-story drift limits with damage states used in the framework. A performance-based retrofit design is presented in detail, and the experimental testing results of four retrofits are provided as well. The algorithm uses each archetype's seismic performance to identify the set of optimal community-level retrofit plans to enhance resiliency by minimizing four objectives: initial cost, economic loss, number of morbidities, and recovery time. In the model, initial cost sums the cost of each new retrofit, economic loss incorporates direct and indirect costs; the number of morbidities includes injuries, fatalities, and persons diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); and a recovery time is estimated and may be used to represent the loss in quality of life for the affected population. The framework was calibrated to the estimated losses from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. An application of the framework is presented using Los Angeles County as the community. Two forecasted populations are also examined using the census data for Daly City, California and East Los Angeles to further exemplify the framework. Analyses were conducted at six seismic intensities. In all illustrative examples, the total financial loss (e.g., initial cost + economic loss) was higher for the initial population (i.e. un-retrofitted community). When combining this financial savings with the reduced number of morbidities, it is clear that the higher initial cost associated with retrofitting the woodframe building stock greatly outweighs the risks and losses associated with not retrofitting. The results also demonstrated how retrofitting the existing woodframe building stock greatly reduces estimated losses, especially for very large earthquakes. The resulting losses were further investigated to demonstrate the important role that the mental health of the population plays in a community's economy and recovery following disastrous events such as earthquakes. Overall, the results clearly demonstrate the necessity in including social vulnerability when assessing or designing for community-level resiliency for a seismic hazard

Millennial slip rate of the Longitudinal Valley fault from river terraces: Implications for convergence across the active suture of eastern Taiwan

The Longitudinal Valley fault is a key element in the active tectonics of Taiwan. It is the principal structure accommodating convergence across one of the two active sutures of the Taiwan orogeny. To understand more precisely its role in the suturing process, we analyzed fluvial terraces along the Hsiukuluan River, which cuts across the Coastal Range in eastern Taiwan in the fault's hanging wall block. This allowed us to determine both its subsurface geometry and its long-term slip rate. The uplift pattern of the terraces is consistent with a fault-bend fold model. Our analysis yields a listric geometry, with dips decreasing downdip from about 50° to about 30° in the shallowest 2.5 km. The Holocene rate of dip slip of the fault is about 22.7 mm/yr. This rate is less than the 40 mm/yr rate of shortening across the Longitudinal Valley derived from GPS measurements. The discrepancy may reflect an actual difference in millennial and decadal rates of convergence. An alternative explanation is that the discrepancy is accommodated by a combination of slip on the Central Range fault and subsidence of the Longitudinal Valley floor. The shallow, listric geometry of the Longitudinal Valley fault at the Hsiukuluan River valley differs markedly from the deep listric geometry illuminated by earthquake hypocenters near Chihshang, 45 km to the south. We hypothesize that this fundamental along-strike difference in geometry of the fault is a manifestation of the northward maturation of the suturing of the Luzon volcanic arc to the Central Range continental sliver

A Critical Analysis of Possible Natural Disasters in the Himalayan Region and a Detailed Study of the Consequences Thereof

The Himalayan Mountainous region is the world's newest, fastest, and most enormous crumpled mountainous range. It is highly volatile because of the continuous geological process. The entire Himalayas range has been responding to devastating natural hazards, which reflects its fragility and susceptibility. The temperature ranges from low-lying hills and mountains to high-altitude, continuously snow-capped mountainous ranges. According to studies, the temperature revolution had a profound effect on the Mountains, and as a result, weather patterns and disasters have changed substantially. The Mountainous terrain's high frequency magnifies weather hazards, bringing everyone else in the area at risk. Humans are no strangers to disasters. Since the beginning of civilization, they have been persistent, though unpleasant, companions of humans, leaving trails of rage and disaster of incredible magnitude. Uttarakhand is susceptible to disasters, glaciers, river flooding, forest fires, cloudbursts, and land degradation, among other disasters

小規模行政区域内の地震時緊急救援道路の検討のための簡易な枠組み

The number of deaths related to earthquake disasters might depend on the speed with which people receive medical treatment during emergencies. The rapid transportation of injured people to the closest hospital is important for decreasing the number of fatalities, and the road networks used by emergency transportation vehicles during disasters are key to disaster mitigation. This study proposed a simple framework to be used in discussions of the performance of emergency transportation routes in small townships in developing countries. The framework comprises an estimation method for road damages and connectivity of the road network to hospitals. Although the details of this damage estimation method were not fully examined, a feasibility study of the proposed framework was conducted on small townships in Mandalay, Myanmar. The results found that the proposed framework is simple, but effective for predicting future aspects of disaster mitigation, particularly in developing countries where precise data are not available or not reliable