Improving Traffic Safety And Drivers\u27 Behavior In Reduced Visibility Conditions

This study is concerned with the safety risk of reduced visibility on roadways. Inclement weather events such as fog/smoke (FS), heavy rain (HR), high winds, etc, do affect every road by impacting pavement conditions, vehicle performance, visibility distance, and drivers’ behavior. Moreover, they affect travel demand, traffic safety, and traffic flow characteristics. Visibility in particular is critical to the task of driving and reduction in visibility due FS or other weather events such as HR is a major factor that affects safety and proper traffic operation. A real-time measurement of visibility and understanding drivers’ responses, when the visibility falls below certain acceptable level, may be helpful in reducing the chances of visibility-related crashes. In this regard, one way to improve safety under reduced visibility conditions (i.e., reduce the risk of visibility related crashes) is to improve drivers’ behavior under such adverse weather conditions. Therefore, one of objectives of this research was to investigate the factors affecting drivers’ stated behavior in adverse visibility conditions, and examine whether drivers rely on and follow advisory or warning messages displayed on portable changeable message signs (CMS) and/or variable speed limit (VSL) signs in different visibility, traffic conditions, and on two types of roadways; freeways and two-lane roads. The data used for the analyses were obtained from a self-reported questionnaire survey carried out among 566 drivers in Central Florida, USA. Several categorical data analysis techniques such as conditional distribution, odds’ ratio, and Chi-Square tests were applied. In addition, two modeling approaches; bivariate and multivariate probit models were estimated. The results revealed that gender, age, road type, visibility condition, and familiarity with VSL signs were the significant factors affecting the likelihood of reducing speed following CMS/VSL instructions in reduced visibility conditions. Other objectives of this survey study were to determine the content of messages that iv would achieve the best perceived safety and drivers’ compliance and to examine the best way to improve safety during these adverse visibility conditions. The results indicated that Caution-fog ahead-reduce speed was the best message and using CMS and VSL signs together was the best way to improve safety during such inclement weather situations. In addition, this research aimed to thoroughly examine drivers’ responses under low visibility conditions and quantify the impacts and values of various factors found to be related to drivers’ compliance and drivers’ satisfaction with VSL and CMS instructions in different visibility and traffic conditions. To achieve these goals, Explanatory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approaches were adopted. The results revealed that drivers’ satisfaction with VSL/CMS was the most significant factor that positively affected drivers’ compliance with advice or warning messages displayed on VSL/CMS signs under different fog conditions followed by driver factors. Moreover, it was found that roadway type affected drivers’ compliance to VSL instructions under medium and heavy fog conditions. Furthermore, drivers’ familiarity with VSL signs and driver factors were the significant factors affecting drivers’ satisfaction with VSL/CMS advice under reduced visibility conditions. Based on the findings of the survey-based study, several recommendations are suggested as guidelines to improve drivers’ behavior in such reduced visibility conditions by enhancing drivers’ compliance with VSL/CMS instructions. Underground loop detectors (LDs) are the most common freeway traffic surveillance technologies used for various intelligent transportation system (ITS) applications such as travel time estimation and crash detection. Recently, the emphasis in freeway management has been shifting towards using LDs data to develop real-time crash-risk assessment models. Numerous v studies have established statistical links between freeway crash risk and traffic flow characteristics. However, there is a lack of good understanding of the relationship between traffic flow variables (i.e. speed, volume and occupancy) and crashes that occur under reduced visibility (VR crashes). Thus, another objective of this research was to explore the occurrence of reduced visibility related (VR) crashes on freeways using real-time traffic surveillance data collected from loop detectors (LDs) and radar sensors. In addition, it examines the difference between VR crashes to those occurring at clear visibility conditions (CV crashes). To achieve these objectives, Random Forests (RF) and matched case-control logistic regression model were estimated. The results indicated that traffic flow variables leading to VR crashes are slightly different from those variables leading to CV crashes. It was found that, higher occupancy observed about half a mile between the nearest upstream and downstream stations increases the risk for both VR and CV crashes. Moreover, an increase of the average speed observed on the same half a mile increases the probability of VR crash. On the other hand, high speed variation coupled with lower average speed observed on the same half a mile increase the likelihood of CV crashes. Moreover, two issues that have not explicitly been addressed in prior studies are; (1) the possibility of predicting VR crashes using traffic data collected from the Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) sensors installed on Expressways and (2) which traffic data is advantageous for predicting VR crashes; LDs or AVIs. Thus, this research attempts to examine the relationships between VR crash risk and real-time traffic data collected from LDs installed on two Freeways in Central Florida (I-4 and I-95) and from AVI sensors installed on two vi Expressways (SR 408 and SR 417). Also, it investigates which data is better for predicting VR crashes. The approach adopted here involves developing Bayesian matched case-control logistic regression using the historical VR crashes, LDs and AVI data. Regarding models estimated based on LDs data, the average speed observed at the nearest downstream station along with the coefficient of variation in speed observed at the nearest upstream station, all at 5-10 minute prior to the crash time, were found to have significant effect on VR crash risk. However, for the model developed based on AVI data, the coefficient of variation in speed observed at the crash segment, at 5-10 minute prior to the crash time, affected the likelihood of VR crash occurrence. Argument concerning which traffic data (LDs or AVI) is better for predicting VR crashes is also provided and discussed

Utilizing Import Vector Machines to Identify Dangerous Pro-active Traffic Conditions

Traffic accidents have been a severe issue in metropolises with the development of traffic flow. This paper explores the theory and application of a recently developed machine learning technique, namely Import Vector Machines (IVMs), in real-time crash risk analysis, which is a hot topic to reduce traffic accidents. Historical crash data and corresponding traffic data from Shanghai Urban Expressway System were employed and matched. Traffic conditions are labelled as dangerous (i.e. probably leading to a crash) and safe (i.e. a normal traffic condition) based on 5-minute measurements of average speed, volume and occupancy. The IVM algorithm is trained to build the classifier and its performance is compared to the popular and successfully applied technique of Support Vector Machines (SVMs). The main findings indicate that IVMs could successfully be employed in real-time identification of dangerous pro-active traffic conditions. Furthermore, similar to the "support points" of the SVM, the IVM model uses only a fraction of the training data to index kernel basis functions, typically a much smaller fraction than the SVM, and its classification rates are similar to those of SVMs. This gives the IVM a computational advantage over the SVM, especially when the size of the training data set is large.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, 2020 IEEE 23rd International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITSC

Using Bayesian Programming for Multisensor Multi-Target Tracking in Automative Applications

A prerequisite to the design of future Advanced Driver Assistance Systems for cars is a sensing system providing all the information required for high-level driving assistance tasks. Carsense is a European project whose purpose is to develop such a new sensing system. It will combine different sensors (laser, radar and video) and will rely on the fusion of the information coming from these sensors in order to achieve better accuracy, robustness and an increase of the information content. This paper demonstrates the interest of using probabilistic reasoning techniques to address this challenging multi-sensor data fusion problem. The approach used is called Bayesian Programming. It is a general approach based on an implementation of the Bayesian theory. It was introduced rst to design robot control programs but its scope of application is much broader and it can be used whenever one has to deal with problems involving uncertain or incomplete knowledge

Real-time classification of aggregated traffic conditions using relevance vector machines

This paper examines the theory and application of a recently developed machine learning technique namely Relevance Vector Machines (RVMs) in the task of traffic conditions classification. Traffic conditions are labelled as dangerous (i.e. probably leading to a collision) and safe (i.e. a normal driving) based on 15-minute measurements of average speed and volume. Two different RVM algorithms are trained with two real-world datasets and validated with one real-world dataset describing traffic conditions of a motorway and two A-class roads in the UK. The performance of these classifiers is compared to the popular and successfully applied technique of Support vector machines (SVMs). The main findings indicate that RVMs could successfully be employed in real-time classification of traffic conditions. They rely on a fewer number of decision vectors, their training time could be reduced to the level of seconds and their classification rates are similar to those of SVMs. However, RVM algorithms with a larger training dataset consisting of highly disaggregated traffic data, as well as the incorporation of other traffic or network variables so as to better describe traffic dynamics, may lead to higher classification accuracy than the one presented in this paper

Real-time crash prediction models: State-of-the-art, design pathways and ubiquitous requirements

Proactive traffic safety management systems can monitor traffic conditions in real-time, identify the formation of unsafe traffic dynamics, and implement suitable interventions to bring unsafe conditions back to normal traffic situations. Recent advancements in artificial intelligence, sensor fusion and algorithms have brought about the introduction of a proactive safety management system closer to reality. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to have a reliable crash prediction model that takes real-time traffic data as input and evaluates their association with crash risk. Since the early 21st century, several studies have focused on developing such models. Although the idea has considerably matured over time, the endeavours have been quite discrete and fragmented at best because the fundamental aspects of the overall modelling approach substantially vary. Therefore, a number of transitional challenges have to be identified and subsequently addressed before a ubiquitous proactive safety management system can be formulated, designed and implemented in real-world scenarios. This manuscript conducts a comprehensive review of existing real-time crash prediction models with the aim of illustrating the state-of-the-art and systematically synthesizing the thoughts presented in existing studies in order to facilitate its translation from an idea into a ready to use technology. Towards that journey, it conducts a systematic review by applying various text mining methods and topic modelling. Based on the findings, this paper ascertains the development pathways followed in various studies, formulates the ubiquitous design requirements of such models from existing studies and knowledge of similar systems. Finally, this study evaluates the universality and design compatibility of existing models. This paper is, therefore, expected to serve as a one stop knowledge source for facilitating a faster transition from the idea of real-time crash prediction models to a real-world operational proactive traffic safety management system

Study on Evaluation Models of Highway Safety Based on Catastrophe Theory

Evaluating safety performance of first-class highways in China is important due to their high mortality rates. Traditional models for statistical crash prediction and traffic conflict techniques require long periods of data collection which is time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper introduces a safety evaluation method based on catastrophe theory for highways in China. The method firstly divides the highway into multiple road sections and uses video-based road detection (VRD) system to collect video data of existing road conditions. Then, experienced drivers and experts are invited to watch the collected videos to establish a multilayer safety index system and assign values to bottom indexes. By applying catastrophe theory, a general safety index is derived, which indicates the relative safety level of a road section. Finally, all road sections can be ranked based on the general safety index. A case study shows encouraging results where (1) the safety index is highly correlated with real mortality rates and (2) the safety index successfully identifies most dangerous road sections. The proposed method can be considered as a promising supplementary safety evaluation method that could help traffic engineers to better understand safety implications of first-class highways in China

Identifying Expressway Accident Black Spots Based on the Secondary Division of Road Units

For the purpose of reducing the harm of expressway traffic accidents and improving the accuracy of traffic accident black spots identification, this paper proposes a method for black spots identification of expressway accidents based on road unit secondary division and empirical Bayes method. Based on the modelling ideas of expressway accident prediction models in HSM (Highway Safety Manual), an expressway accident prediction model is established as a prior distribution and combined with empirical Bayes method safety estimation to obtain a Bayes posterior estimate. The posterior estimated value is substituted into the quality control method to obtain the black spots identification threshold. Finally, combining the Xi\u27an-Baoji expressway related data and using the method proposed in this paper, a case study of Xibao Expressway is carried out, and sections 9, 19, and 25 of Xibao Expressway are identified as black spots. The results show that the method of secondary segmentation based on dynamic clustering can objectively describe the concentration and dispersion of accident spots on the expressway, and the proposed black point recognition method based on empirical Bayes method can accurately identify accident black spots. The research results of this paper can provide a basis for decision-making of expressway management departments, take targeted safety improvement measures

Multi-level Safety Performance Functions For High Speed Facilities

High speed facilities are considered the backbone of any successful transportation system; Interstates, freeways, and expressways carry the majority of daily trips on the transportation network. Although these types of roads are relatively considered the safest among other types of roads, they still experience many crashes, many of which are severe, which not only affect human lives but also can have tremendous economical and social impacts. These facts signify the necessity of enhancing the safety of these high speed facilities to ensure better and efficient operation. Safety problems could be assessed through several approaches that can help in mitigating the crash risk on long and short term basis. Therefore, the main focus of the research in this dissertation is to provide a framework of risk assessment to promote safety and enhance mobility on freeways and expressways. Multi-level Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) were developed at the aggregate level using historical crash data and the corresponding exposure and risk factors to identify and rank sites with promise (hot-spots). Additionally, SPFs were developed at the disaggregate level utilizing real-time weather data collected from meteorological stations located at the freeway section as well as traffic flow parameters collected from different detection systems such as Automatic Vehicle Identification (AVI) and Remote Traffic Microwave Sensors (RTMS). These disaggregate SPFs can identify real-time risks due to turbulent traffic conditions and their interactions with other risk factors. In this study, two main datasets were obtained from two different regions. Those datasets comprise historical crash data, roadway geometrical characteristics, aggregate weather and traffic parameters as well as real-time weather and traffic data. iii At the aggregate level, Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial and random effects were compared to Poisson models to examine the safety effects of roadway geometrics on crash occurrence along freeway sections that feature mountainous terrain and adverse weather. At the disaggregate level; a main framework of a proactive safety management system using traffic data collected from AVI and RTMS, real-time weather and geometrical characteristics was provided. Different statistical techniques were implemented. These techniques ranged from classical frequentist classification approaches to explain the relationship between an event (crash) occurring at a given time and a set of risk factors in real time to other more advanced models. Bayesian statistics with updating approach to update beliefs about the behavior of the parameter with prior knowledge in order to achieve more reliable estimation was implemented. Also a relatively recent and promising Machine Learning technique (Stochastic Gradient Boosting) was utilized to calibrate several models utilizing different datasets collected from mixed detection systems as well as real-time meteorological stations. The results from this study suggest that both levels of analyses are important, the aggregate level helps in providing good understanding of different safety problems, and developing policies and countermeasures to reduce the number of crashes in total. At the disaggregate level, real-time safety functions help toward more proactive traffic management system that will not only enhance the performance of the high speed facilities and the whole traffic network but also provide safer mobility for people and goods. In general, the proposed multi-level analyses are useful in providing roadway authorities with detailed information on where countermeasures must be implemented and when resources should be devoted. The study also proves that traffic data collected from different detection systems could be a useful asset that should be utilized iv appropriately not only to alleviate traffic congestion but also to mitigate increased safety risks. The overall proposed framework can maximize the benefit of the existing archived data for freeway authorities as well as for road users

Simulation Research on Driving Behaviour of Autonomous Vehicles on Expressway Ramp Under the Background of Vehicle-Road Coordination

Constructing a risk model with the subject of autonomous vehicles to screen out the vehicles of potential conflicts and analyze their choices under different strategies. Based on the co-simulation of Python and SUMO, establishing a model of on-ramp merge driving behaviour of autonomous vehicles based on non-cooperative static game. Under this model, the experiment results that the average speed in the merging area is increased by 12.7%, the standard deviation of the average speed is reduced by 35.46%, and the number of the vehicles successfully merged before the end of the merging area is 4.86 times that of traditional method, indicate that the model can effectively help the vehicles be merged and improve the traffic efficiency to a certain extent