Predicting Cyber Events by Leveraging Hacker Sentiment

Recent high-profile cyber attacks exemplify why organizations need better cyber defenses. Cyber threats are hard to accurately predict because attackers usually try to mask their traces. However, they often discuss exploits and techniques on hacking forums. The community behavior of the hackers may provide insights into groups' collective malicious activity. We propose a novel approach to predict cyber events using sentiment analysis. We test our approach using cyber attack data from 2 major business organizations. We consider 3 types of events: malicious software installation, malicious destination visits, and malicious emails that surpassed the target organizations' defenses. We construct predictive signals by applying sentiment analysis on hacker forum posts to better understand hacker behavior. We analyze over 400K posts generated between January 2016 and January 2018 on over 100 hacking forums both on surface and Dark Web. We find that some forums have significantly more predictive power than others. Sentiment-based models that leverage specific forums can outperform state-of-the-art deep learning and time-series models on forecasting cyber attacks weeks ahead of the events

AVOIDIT IRS: An Issue Resolution System To Resolve Cyber Attacks

Cyber attacks have greatly increased over the years and the attackers have progressively improved in devising attacks against specific targets. Cyber attacks are considered a malicious activity launched against networks to gain unauthorized access causing modification, destruction, or even deletion of data. This dissertation highlights the need to assist defenders with identifying and defending against cyber attacks. In this dissertation an attack issue resolution system is developed called AVOIDIT IRS (AIRS). AVOIDIT IRS is based on the attack taxonomy AVOIDIT (Attack Vector, Operational Impact, Defense, Information Impact, and Target). Attacks are collected by AIRS and classified into their respective category using AVOIDIT.Accordingly, an organizational cyber attack ontology was developed using feedback from security professionals to improve the communication and reusability amongst cyber security stakeholders. AIRS is developed as a semi-autonomous application that extracts unstructured external and internal attack data to classify attacks in sequential form. In doing so, we designed and implemented a frequent pattern and sequential classification algorithm associated with the five classifications in AVOIDIT. The issue resolution approach uses inference to educate the defender on the plausible cyber attacks. The AIRS can work in conjunction with an intrusion detection system (IDS) to provide a heuristic to cyber security breaches within an organization. AVOIDIT provides a framework for classifying appropriate attack information, which is fundamental in devising defense strategies against such cyber attacks. The AIRS is further used as a knowledge base in a game inspired defense architecture to promote game model selection upon attack identification. Future work will incorporate honeypot attack information to improve attack identification, classification, and defense propagation.In this dissertation, 1,025 common vulnerabilities and exposures (CVEs) and over 5,000 lines of log files instances were captured in the AIRS for analysis. Security experts were consulted to create rules to extract pertinent information and algorithms to correlate identified data for notification. The AIRS was developed using the Codeigniter [74] framework to provide a seamless visualization tool for data mining regarding potential cyber attacks relative to web applications. Testing of the AVOIDIT IRS revealed a recall of 88%, precision of 93%, and a 66% correlation metric

Cyberattacks: Does Physical Boundry Matter?

Information security issues are characterized with interdependence. Particularly, cyber criminals can easily cross national boundaries and exploit jurisdictional limitations between countries. Thus, whether cyber attacks are spatially autocorrelated is a strategic issue for government authorities and a tactic issue for insurance companies. Through an empirical study of cyber attacks across 62 countries during the period 2003-2007, we find little evidence on the spatial autocorrelation of cyber attacks at any week. However, after considering economic opportunity, IT infrastructure, international collaboration in enforcement and conventional crimes, we find strong evidence that cyber attacks were indeed spatially autocorrelated as they moved over time. The policy and managerial implication is that physical boundary should be an important factor in addressing strategic cyber attacks and their potential risks

Closing the loop of SIEM analysis to Secure Critical Infrastructures

Critical Infrastructure Protection is one of the main challenges of last years. Security Information and Event Management (SIEM) systems are widely used for coping with this challenge. However, they currently present several limitations that have to be overcome. In this paper we propose an enhanced SIEM system in which we have introduced novel components to i) enable multiple layer data analysis; ii) resolve conflicts among security policies, and discover unauthorized data paths in such a way to be able to reconfigure network devices. Furthermore, the system is enriched by a Resilient Event Storage that ensures integrity and unforgeability of events stored.Comment: EDCC-2014, BIG4CIP-2014, Security Information and Event Management, Decision Support System, Hydroelectric Da

The future of Cybersecurity in Italy: Strategic focus area

This volume has been created as a continuation of the previous one, with the aim of outlining a set of focus areas and actions that the Italian Nation research community considers essential. The book touches many aspects of cyber security, ranging from the definition of the infrastructure and controls needed to organize cyberdefence to the actions and technologies to be developed to be better protected, from the identification of the main technologies to be defended to the proposal of a set of horizontal actions for training, awareness raising, and risk management

Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for Critical Infrastructures Security

Modern critical infrastructures can be considered as large scale Cyber Physical Systems (CPS). Therefore, when designing, implementing, and operating systems for Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), the boundaries between physical security and cybersecurity are blurred. Emerging systems for Critical Infrastructures Security and Protection must therefore consider integrated approaches that emphasize the interplay between cybersecurity and physical security techniques. Hence, there is a need for a new type of integrated security intelligence i.e., Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence (CPTI). This book presents novel solutions for integrated Cyber-Physical Threat Intelligence for infrastructures in various sectors, such as Industrial Sites and Plants, Air Transport, Gas, Healthcare, and Finance. The solutions rely on novel methods and technologies, such as integrated modelling for cyber-physical systems, novel reliance indicators, and data driven approaches including BigData analytics and Artificial Intelligence (AI). Some of the presented approaches are sector agnostic i.e., applicable to different sectors with a fair customization effort. Nevertheless, the book presents also peculiar challenges of specific sectors and how they can be addressed. The presented solutions consider the European policy context for Security, Cyber security, and Critical Infrastructure protection, as laid out by the European Commission (EC) to support its Member States to protect and ensure the resilience of their critical infrastructures. Most of the co-authors and contributors are from European Research and Technology Organizations, as well as from European Critical Infrastructure Operators. Hence, the presented solutions respect the European approach to CIP, as reflected in the pillars of the European policy framework. The latter includes for example the Directive on security of network and information systems (NIS Directive), the Directive on protecting European Critical Infrastructures, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), and the Cybersecurity Act Regulation. The sector specific solutions that are described in the book have been developed and validated in the scope of several European Commission (EC) co-funded projects on Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP), which focus on the listed sectors. Overall, the book illustrates a rich set of systems, technologies, and applications that critical infrastructure operators could consult to shape their future strategies. It also provides a catalogue of CPTI case studies in different sectors, which could be useful for security consultants and practitioners as well

A Relevance Model for Threat-Centric Ranking of Cybersecurity Vulnerabilities

The relentless and often haphazard process of tracking and remediating vulnerabilities is a top concern for cybersecurity professionals. The key challenge they face is trying to identify a remediation scheme specific to in-house, organizational objectives. Without a strategy, the result is a patchwork of fixes applied to a tide of vulnerabilities, any one of which could be the single point of failure in an otherwise formidable defense. This means one of the biggest challenges in vulnerability management relates to prioritization. Given that so few vulnerabilities are a focus of real-world attacks, a practical remediation strategy is to identify vulnerabilities likely to be exploited and focus efforts towards remediating those vulnerabilities first. The goal of this research is to demonstrate that aggregating and synthesizing readily accessible, public data sources to provide personalized, automated recommendations that an organization can use to prioritize its vulnerability management strategy will offer significant improvements over what is currently realized using the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). We provide a framework for vulnerability management specifically focused on mitigating threats using adversary criteria derived from MITRE ATT&CK. We identify the data mining steps needed to acquire, standardize, and integrate publicly available cyber intelligence data sets into a robust knowledge graph from which stakeholders can infer business logic related to known threats. We tested our approach by identifying vulnerabilities in academic and common software associated with six universities and four government facilities. Ranking policy performance was measured using the Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain (nDCG). Our results show an average 71.5% to 91.3% improvement towards the identification of vulnerabilities likely to be targeted and exploited by cyber threat actors. The ROI of patching using our policies resulted in a savings in the range of 23.3% to 25.5% in annualized unit costs. Our results demonstrate the efficiency of creating knowledge graphs to link large data sets to facilitate semantic queries and create data-driven, flexible ranking policies. Additionally, our framework uses only open standards, making implementation and improvement feasible for cyber practitioners and academia

Evaluation of Cybersecurity Threats on Smart Metering System

Smart metering has emerged as the next-generation of energy distribution, consumption, and monitoring systems via the convergence of power engineering and information and communication technology (ICT) integration otherwise known as smart grid systems. While the innovation is advancing the future power generation, distribution, consumption monitoring and information delivery, the success of the platform is positively correlated to the thriving integration of technologies upon which the system is built. Nonetheless, the rising trend of cybersecurity attacks on cyber infrastructure and its dependent systems coupled with the system’s inherent vulnerabilities present a source of concern not only to the vendors but also the consumers. These security concerns need to be addressed in order to increase consumer confidence so as to ensure greatest adoption and success of smart metering. In this paper, we present a functional communication architecture of the smart metering system. Following that, we demonstrate and discuss the taxonomy of smart metering common vulnerabilities exposure, upon which sophisticated threats can capitalize. We then introduce countermeasure techniques, whose integration is considered pivotal for achieving security protection against existing and future sophisticated attacks on smart metering systems