On Cognitive Preferences and the Plausibility of Rule-based Models

It is conventional wisdom in machine learning and data mining that logical models such as rule sets are more interpretable than other models, and that among such rule-based models, simpler models are more interpretable than more complex ones. In this position paper, we question this latter assumption by focusing on one particular aspect of interpretability, namely the plausibility of models. Roughly speaking, we equate the plausibility of a model with the likeliness that a user accepts it as an explanation for a prediction. In particular, we argue that, all other things being equal, longer explanations may be more convincing than shorter ones, and that the predominant bias for shorter models, which is typically necessary for learning powerful discriminative models, may not be suitable when it comes to user acceptance of the learned models. To that end, we first recapitulate evidence for and against this postulate, and then report the results of an evaluation in a crowd-sourcing study based on about 3.000 judgments. The results do not reveal a strong preference for simple rules, whereas we can observe a weak preference for longer rules in some domains. We then relate these results to well-known cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy, the representative heuristic, or the recogition heuristic, and investigate their relation to rule length and plausibility.Comment: V4: Another rewrite of section on interpretability to clarify focus on plausibility and relation to interpretability, comprehensibility, and justifiabilit

Non-distributional Word Vector Representations

Data-driven representation learning for words is a technique of central importance in NLP. While indisputably useful as a source of features in downstream tasks, such vectors tend to consist of uninterpretable components whose relationship to the categories of traditional lexical semantic theories is tenuous at best. We present a method for constructing interpretable word vectors from hand-crafted linguistic resources like WordNet, FrameNet etc. These vectors are binary (i.e, contain only 0 and 1) and are 99.9% sparse. We analyze their performance on state-of-the-art evaluation methods for distributional models of word vectors and find they are competitive to standard distributional approaches.Comment: Proceedings of ACL 201

The Cure: Making a game of gene selection for breast cancer survival prediction

Motivation: Molecular signatures for predicting breast cancer prognosis could greatly improve care through personalization of treatment. Computational analyses of genome-wide expression datasets have identified such signatures, but these signatures leave much to be desired in terms of accuracy, reproducibility and biological interpretability. Methods that take advantage of structured prior knowledge (e.g. protein interaction networks) show promise in helping to define better signatures but most knowledge remains unstructured. Crowdsourcing via scientific discovery games is an emerging methodology that has the potential to tap into human intelligence at scales and in modes previously unheard of. Here, we developed and evaluated a game called The Cure on the task of gene selection for breast cancer survival prediction. Our central hypothesis was that knowledge linking expression patterns of specific genes to breast cancer outcomes could be captured from game players. We envisioned capturing knowledge both from the players prior experience and from their ability to interpret text related to candidate genes presented to them in the context of the game. Results: Between its launch in Sept. 2012 and Sept. 2013, The Cure attracted more than 1,000 registered players who collectively played nearly 10,000 games. Gene sets assembled through aggregation of the collected data clearly demonstrated the accumulation of relevant expert knowledge. In terms of predictive accuracy, these gene sets provided comparable performance to gene sets generated using other methods including those used in commercial tests. The Cure is available at http://genegames.org/cure

Explaining computer predictions with augmented appraisal degrees

An augmented appraisal degree (AAD) has been conceived as a mathematical representation of the connotative meaning in an experience-based evaluation, which depends on a particular experience or knowledge. Aiming to improve the interpretability of computer predictions, we explore the use of AADs to represent evaluations that are per- formed by a machine to predict the class of a particular object. Hence, we propose a novel method whereby predictions made using a support vector machine classification process are augmented through AADs. An illustra- tive example, in which the classes of handwritten digits are predicted, shows how the augmentation of such predictions can favor their interpretability