Crowdsourcing traffic data for travel time estimation

Travel time estimation is a fundamental measure used in routing and navigation applications, in particular in emerging intelligent transportation systems (ITS). For example, many users may prefer the fastest route to their destination and would rely on real-time predicted travel times. It also helps real-time traffic management and traffic light control. Accurate estimation of travel time requires collecting a lot of real-time data from road networks. This data can be collected using a wide variety of sources like inductive loop detectors, video cameras, radio frequency identification (RFID) transponders etc. But these systems include deployment of infrastructure which has some limitations and drawbacks. The main drawbacks in these modes are the high cost and the high probability of error caused by prevalence of equipment malfunctions and in the case of sensor based methods, the problem of spatial coverage.;As an alternative to traditional way of collecting data using expensive equipment, development of cellular & mobile technology allows for leveraging embedded GPS sensors in smartphones carried by millions of road users. Crowd-sourcing GPS data will allow building traffic monitoring systems that utilize this opportunity for the purpose of accurate and real-time prediction of traffic measures. However, the effectiveness of these systems have not yet been proven or shown in real applications. In this thesis, we study some of the current available data sets and identify the requirements for accurate prediction. In our work, we propose the design for a crowd-sourcing traffic application, including an android-based mobile client and a server architecture. We also develop map-matching method. More importantly, we present prediction methods using machine learning techniques such as support vector regression.;Machine learning provides an alternative to traditional statistical method such as using averaged historic data for estimation of travel time. Machine Learning techniques played a key role in estimation in the last two decades. They are proved by providing better accuracy in estimation and in classification. However, employing a machine learning technique in any application requires creative modeling of the system and its sensory data. In this thesis, we model the road network as a graph and train different models for different links on the road. Modeling a road network as graph with nodes and links enables the learner to capture patterns occurring on each segment of road, thereby providing better accuracy. To evaluate the prediction models, we use three sets of data out of which two sets are collected using mobile probing and one set is generated using VISSIM traffic simulator. The results show that crowdsourcing is only more accurate than traditional statistical methods if the input values for input data are very close to the actual values. In particular, when speed of vehicles on a link are concerned, we need to provide the machine learning model with data that is only few minutes old; using average speed of vehicles, for example from the past half hour, as is usually seen in many web based traffic information sources may not allow for better performance

Bias Reduction via End-to-End Shift Learning: Application to Citizen Science

Citizen science projects are successful at gathering rich datasets for various applications. However, the data collected by citizen scientists are often biased --- in particular, aligned more with the citizens' preferences than with scientific objectives. We propose the Shift Compensation Network (SCN), an end-to-end learning scheme which learns the shift from the scientific objectives to the biased data while compensating for the shift by re-weighting the training data. Applied to bird observational data from the citizen science project eBird, we demonstrate how SCN quantifies the data distribution shift and outperforms supervised learning models that do not address the data bias. Compared with competing models in the context of covariate shift, we further demonstrate the advantage of SCN in both its effectiveness and its capability of handling massive high-dimensional data

Robot navigation in dense human crowds: Statistical models and experimental studies of human–robot cooperation

We consider the problem of navigating a mobile robot through dense human crowds. We begin by exploring a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the “freezing robot problem”: once the environment surpasses a certain level of dynamic complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. We argue that this problem can be avoided if the robot anticipates human cooperation, and accordingly we develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a “multiple goal” extension that models the goal-driven nature of human decision making. We validate this model with an empirical study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (488 runs), specifically testing how cooperation models effect navigation performance. The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 0.8 humans/m^2, while a state-of-the-art non-cooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than three times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m^2. We also show that our non-cooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds