Crop Yield Prediction Using Deep Neural Networks

Crop yield is a highly complex trait determined by multiple factors such as genotype, environment, and their interactions. Accurate yield prediction requires fundamental understanding of the functional relationship between yield and these interactive factors, and to reveal such relationship requires both comprehensive datasets and powerful algorithms. In the 2018 Syngenta Crop Challenge, Syngenta released several large datasets that recorded the genotype and yield performances of 2,267 maize hybrids planted in 2,247 locations between 2008 and 2016 and asked participants to predict the yield performance in 2017. As one of the winning teams, we designed a deep neural network (DNN) approach that took advantage of state-of-the-art modeling and solution techniques. Our model was found to have a superior prediction accuracy, with a root-mean-square-error (RMSE) being 12% of the average yield and 50% of the standard deviation for the validation dataset using predicted weather data. With perfect weather data, the RMSE would be reduced to 11% of the average yield and 46% of the standard deviation. We also performed feature selection based on the trained DNN model, which successfully decreased the dimension of the input space without significant drop in the prediction accuracy. Our computational results suggested that this model significantly outperformed other popular methods such as Lasso, shallow neural networks (SNN), and regression tree (RT). The results also revealed that environmental factors had a greater effect on the crop yield than genotype.Comment: 9 pages, Presented at 2018 INFORMS Conference on Business Analytics and Operations Research (Baltimore, MD, USA). One of the winning solutions to the 2018 Syngenta Crop Challeng

Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Partnership’s work in Latin America

The Climate Services for Resilient Development (CSRD) Partnership is a private-public collaboration led by USAID, which aims to increase resilience to climate change in developing countries through the development and dissemination of climate services. The partnership began with initial projects in three countries: Colombia, Ethiopia, and Bangladesh. The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) was the lead organization for the Colombian CSRD efforts – which then expanded to encompass work in the whole Latin American region

Artificial Neural Network Methodology for Modelling and Forecasting Maize Crop Yield

A particular type of “Artificial neural network (ANN)â€, viz. Multilayered feedforward artificial neural network (MLFANN) has been described. To train such a network, two types of learning algorithms, namely Gradient descent algorithm (GDA) and Conjugate gradient descent algorithm (CGDA), have been discussed. The methodology has been illustrated by considering maize crop yield data as response variable and total human labour, farm power, fertilizer consumption, and pesticide consumption as predictors. The data have been taken from a recently concluded National Agricultural Technology Project of Division of Agricultural Economics, I.A.R.I., New Delhi. To train the neural network, relevant computer programs have been written in MATLAB software package using Neural network toolbox. It has been found that a three-layered MLFANN with (11,16) units in the two hidden layers performs best in terms of having minimum mean square errors (MSE) for training, validation, and test sets. Superiority of this MLFANN over multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis has also been demonstrated for the maize data considered in the study. It is hoped that, in future, research workers would start applying not only MLFANN but also some of the other more advanced ANN models, like ‘Radial basis function neural network’, and ‘Generalized regression neural network’ in their studies.Crop Production/Industries,

PREDICTION OF CROP YIELDS ACROSS FOUR CLIMATE ZONES IN GERMANY: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH

This paper shows the ability of artificial neural network technology to be used for the approximation and prediction of crop yields at rural district and federal state scales in different climate zones based on reported daily weather data. The method may later be used to construct regional time series of agricultural output under climate change, based on the highly resolved output of the global circulation models and regional models. Three 30-year combined historical data sets of rural district yields (oats, spring barley and silage maize), daily temperatures (mean, maximum, dewpoint) and precipitation were constructed. They were used with artificial neural network technology to investigate, simulate and predict historical time series of crop yields in four climate zones of Germany. Final neural networks, trained with data sets of three climate zones and tested against an independent northern zone, have high predictive power (0.83global change, agriculture, artificial neural networks, yield prediction

A Review on the Application of Natural Computing in Environmental Informatics

Natural computing offers new opportunities to understand, model and analyze the complexity of the physical and human-created environment. This paper examines the application of natural computing in environmental informatics, by investigating related work in this research field. Various nature-inspired techniques are presented, which have been employed to solve different relevant problems. Advantages and disadvantages of these techniques are discussed, together with analysis of how natural computing is generally used in environmental research.Comment: Proc. of EnviroInfo 201

Local Motion Planner for Autonomous Navigation in Vineyards with a RGB-D Camera-Based Algorithm and Deep Learning Synergy

With the advent of agriculture 3.0 and 4.0, researchers are increasingly focusing on the development of innovative smart farming and precision agriculture technologies by introducing automation and robotics into the agricultural processes. Autonomous agricultural field machines have been gaining significant attention from farmers and industries to reduce costs, human workload, and required resources. Nevertheless, achieving sufficient autonomous navigation capabilities requires the simultaneous cooperation of different processes; localization, mapping, and path planning are just some of the steps that aim at providing to the machine the right set of skills to operate in semi-structured and unstructured environments. In this context, this study presents a low-cost local motion planner for autonomous navigation in vineyards based only on an RGB-D camera, low range hardware, and a dual layer control algorithm. The first algorithm exploits the disparity map and its depth representation to generate a proportional control for the robotic platform. Concurrently, a second back-up algorithm, based on representations learning and resilient to illumination variations, can take control of the machine in case of a momentaneous failure of the first block. Moreover, due to the double nature of the system, after initial training of the deep learning model with an initial dataset, the strict synergy between the two algorithms opens the possibility of exploiting new automatically labeled data, coming from the field, to extend the existing model knowledge. The machine learning algorithm has been trained and tested, using transfer learning, with acquired images during different field surveys in the North region of Italy and then optimized for on-device inference with model pruning and quantization. Finally, the overall system has been validated with a customized robot platform in the relevant environment