Modelling bid-ask spread conditional distributions using hierarchical correlation reconstruction

While we would like to predict exact values, the information available, being incomplete, is rarely sufficient - usually allowing only conditional probability distributions to be predicted. This article discusses hierarchical correlation reconstruction (HCR) methodology for such a prediction using the example of bid-ask spreads (usually unavailable), but here predicted from more accessible data like closing price, volume, high/low price and returns. Using HCR methodology, as in copula theory, we first normalized marginal distributions so that they were nearly uniform. Then we modelled joint densities as linear combinations of orthonormal polynomials, obtaining their decomposition into mixed moments. Then we modelled each moment of the predicted variable separately as a linear combination of mixed moments of known variables using least squares linear regression. By combining these predicted moments, we obtained the predicted density as a polynomial, for which we can e.g. calculate the expected value, but also the variance to determine the uncertainty of the prediction, or we can use the entire distribution for, e.g. more accurate further calculations or generating random values. 10-fold cross-validation log-likelihood tests were conducted for 22 DAX companies, leading to very accurate predictions, especially when individual models were used for each company, as significant differences were found between their behaviours. An additional advantage of using this methodology is that it is computationally inexpensive; estimating and evaluating a model with hundreds of parameters and thousands of data points by means of this methodology takes only a second on a computer

On the Determinants of Social Capital in Greece Compared to Countries of the European Union

Social capital refers to the stock of social relations, based on norms and networks of cooperation and trust that spill over to the market and state to enhance collective action between actors and achieve improved social efficiency and economic growth. The aim of the present paper is to discuss the implications of contemporary literature and empirical findings on social capital for the growth prospects of Greece, compared to the member-states of the European Union. In order to examine the potential of social capital to enhance growth, we must look into the factors that determine the nature and context of trust, norms and networks that have emerged in our multinational, multiethnic and multicultural Europe.The contribution of this paper is to offer insight on the determinants of social capital in Greece, compared to the European Union (EU - former 15 member-states). For this purpose, we regress an index of individual group membership, derived from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), on a set of individual as well as aggregate factors of social capital. Regression results provide evidence of the impact of both individual and institutional characteristics on group membership. Differences on the extent of group membership between countries might be indicative of the historical and cultural differences that have affected the evolution of social capital across Europe. Particularly in Greece, the relatively low level of group membership compared to the other EU countries might provide further evidence of its low levels of civicness. Historically, its weak civil society has been a result of a prior civic tradition of clientelism under arbitrary rule, the interference of special-interest groups and the lack of credibility and impartiality from the part of the state. And these factors might be responsible for the slow pace in reform and growth observed compared to the rest of the EU. Nevertheless, the findings on the determinants of social capital may direct us to possible means of rebuilding patterns of participatory and cooperative behavior, especially in countries with low levels of trust and civicness, such as Greece.Determinants, Social capital in Greece, European union, Diversity

"Subnational Borrowing in Japan : from 'Implicit Guarantee' to Market Discipline and Fiscal Rule"

In many countries, local borrowing is an important source for long-term development projects such as roads, bridges, and waterworks. Local borrowing for such projects is justified on the ground that benefit of these projects often last decades and the cost of these projects should be borne by future tax payers. However, there are serious concerns with issuance of local bonds by decentralized local governments. Local governments in Japan would not default on their borrowing because of such "implicit government guarantee." As a result, lenders and tax payers have lost incentive to monitor subnational government because they view their investment as protected by a central government. The purpose of this paper is to review the local borrowing in Japan. At first, the transition from administrative control to rule-based, market oriented system is described. Following this, soft budget constraint and effectiveness of market discipline is investigated. Third, bank lending and local bonds as a way of financing long-term infrastructures are compared. Finally, we shed light on the credibility of local bonds in Japan and offer some proposals.

Bonds and bridges : social and poverty

Using the lens of social capital-especially bridging or cross-cutting ties that cut across social groups and between social groups and government-provides new insights into policy design. Solidarity within social groups creates ties (bonding social capital) that bring people and resources together. In unequal societies, ties that cut across groups (bridging social capital) are essential for social cohesion and for poverty reduction. The nature of interaction between state and society is characterized as complementarity and substitution. When states are functional, the informal and formal work well together-for example, government support or community-based development. When states become dysfunctional, the informal institutions become a substitute and are reduced to serving a defensive or survival function. To move toward economic and social well-being, states must support inclusive development. Investments in the organizational capacity of the poor are critical. Interventions are also required to foster bridging ties across social groups-ethnic, religious, caste, or racial groups. Such interventions can stem from the state, private sector, or civil society and include: Changes in rules to include groups previously excluded from formal systems of finance, education, and governance, at all levels. Political pluralism and citizenship rights. Fairness before the law for all social groups together. Infrastructure that eases communication. Education, media, and public information policies that reinforce norms and values of tolerance and diversity.Social Capital,Public Health Promotion,Education and Society,Decentralization,Community Development and Empowerment,Poverty Assessment,National Governance,Governance Indicators,Social Capital,Community Development and Empowerment

Global crisis and national policy responses: together alone?

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