An Approach to Select Cost-Effective Risk Countermeasures Exemplified in CORAS

Risk is unavoidable in business and risk management is needed amongst others to set up good security policies. Once the risks are evaluated, the next step is to decide how they should be treated. This involves managers making decisions on proper countermeasures to be implemented to mitigate the risks. The countermeasure expenditure, together with its ability to mitigate risks, is factors that affect the selection. While many approaches have been proposed to perform risk analysis, there has been less focus on delivering the prescriptive and specific information that managers require to select cost-effective countermeasures. This paper proposes a generic approach to integrate the cost assessment into risk analysis to aid such decision making. The approach makes use of a risk model which has been annotated with potential countermeasures, estimates for their cost and effect. A calculus is then employed to reason about this model in order to support decision in terms of decision diagrams. We exemplify the instantiation of the generic approach in the CORAS method for security risk analysis.Comment: 33 page

Improving resilience to cyber-attacks by analysing system output impacts and costs

Cyber-attacks cost businesses millions of dollars every year, a key component of which is the cost of business disruption from system downtime. As cyber-attacks cannot all be prevented, there is a need to consider the cyber resilience of systems, i.e. the ability to withstand cyber-attacks and recover from them. Previous works discussing system cyber resilience typically either offer generic high-level guidance on best practices, provide limited attack modelling, or apply to systems with special characteristics. There is a lack of an approach to system cyber resilience evaluation that is generally applicable yet provides a detailed consideration for the system-level impacts of cyber-attacks and defences. We propose a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of actions intended to improve resilience to cyber-attacks, considering their impacts on system output performance, and monetary costs. It is intended for analysing attacks that can disrupt the system function, and involves modelling attack progression, system output production, response to attacks, and costs from cyber-attacks and defensive actions. Studies of three use cases demonstrate the implementation and usefulness of our methodology. First, in our redundancy planning study, we considered the effect of redundancy additions on mitigating the impacts of cyber-attacks on system output performance. We found that redundancy with diversity can be effective in increasing resilience, although the reduction in attack-related costs must be balanced against added maintenance costs. Second, our work on attack countermeasure selection shows that by considering system output impacts across the duration of an attack, one can find more cost-effective attack responses than without such considerations. Third, we propose an approach to mission viability analysis for multi-UAV deployments facing cyber-attacks, which can aid resource planning and determining if the mission can conclude successfully despite an attack. We provide different implementations of our model components, based on use case requirements.Open Acces

Efficient attack countermeasure selection accounting for recovery and action costs

The losses arising from a system being hit by cyber attacks can be staggeringly high, but defending against such attacks can also be costly. This work proposes an attack countermeasure selection approach based on cost impact analysis that takes into account the impacts of actions by both the attacker and the defender. We consider a networked system providing services whose functionality depends on other components in the network. We model the costs and losses to service availability from compromises and defensive actions to the components, and show that while containment of the attack can be an effective defense, it may be more cost-efficient to allow parts of the attack to continue further whilst focusing on recovering services to a functional state. Based on this insight, we build a countermeasure selection method that chooses the most cost-effective action based on its impact on expected losses and costs over a given time horizon. Our method is evaluated using simulations in synthetic graphs representing network dependencies and vulnerabilities, and performs well in comparison to alternatives

Towards Optimal IT Availability Planning: Methods and Tools

The availability of an organisation’s IT infrastructure is of vital importance for supporting business activities. IT outages are a cause of competitive liability, chipping away at a company financial performance and reputation. To achieve the maximum possible IT availability within the available budget, organisations need to carry out a set of analysis activities to prioritise efforts and take decisions based on the business needs. This set of analysis activities is called IT availability planning. Most (large) organisations address IT availability planning from one or more of the three main angles: information risk management, business continuity and service level management. Information risk management consists of identifying, analysing, evaluating and mitigating the risks that can affect the information processed by an organisation and the information-processing (IT) systems. Business continuity consists of creating a logistic plan, called business continuity plan, which contains the procedures and all the useful information needed to recover an organisations’ critical processes after major disruption. Service level management mainly consists of organising, documenting and ensuring a certain quality level (e.g. the availability level) for the services offered by IT systems to the business units of an organisation. There exist several standard documents that provide the guidelines to set up the processes of risk, business continuity and service level management. However, to be as generally applicable as possible, these standards do not include implementation details. Consequently, to do IT availability planning each organisation needs to develop the concrete techniques that suit its needs. To be of practical use, these techniques must be accurate enough to deal with the increasing complexity of IT infrastructures, but remain feasible within the budget available to organisations. As we argue in this dissertation, basic approaches currently adopted by organisations are feasible but often lack of accuracy. In this thesis we propose a graph-based framework for modelling the availability dependencies of the components of an IT infrastructure and we develop techniques based on this framework to support availability planning. In more detail we present: 1. the Time Dependency model, which is meant to support IT managers in the selection of a cost-optimal set of countermeasures to mitigate availability-related IT risks; 2. the Qualitative Time Dependency model, which is meant to be used to systematically assess availability-related IT risks in combination with existing risk assessment methods; 3. the Time Dependency and Recovery model, which provides a tool for IT managers to set or validate the recovery time objectives on the components of an IT architecture, which are then used to create the IT-related part of a business continuity plan; 4. A2THOS, to verify if availability SLAs, regulating the provisioning of IT services between business units of the same organisation, can be respected when the implementation of these services is partially outsourced to external companies, and to choose outsourcing offers accordingly. We run case studies with the data of a primary insurance company and a large multinational company to test the proposed techniques. The results indicate that organisations such as insurance or manufacturing companies, which use IT to support their business can benefit from the optimisation of the availability of their IT infrastructure: it is possible to develop techniques that support IT availability planning while guaranteeing feasibility within budget. The framework we propose shows that the structure of the IT architecture can be practically employed with such techniques to increase their accuracy over current practice

Combining Technical and Financial Impacts for Countermeasure Selection

Research in information security has generally focused on providing a comprehensive interpretation of threats, vulnerabilities, and attacks, in particular to evaluate their danger and prioritize responses accordingly. Most of the current approaches propose advanced techniques to detect intrusions and complex attacks but few of these approaches propose well defined methodologies to react against a given attack. In this paper, we propose a novel and systematic method to select security countermeasures from a pool of candidates, by ranking them based on the technical and financial impact associated to each alternative. The method includes industrial evaluation and simulations of the impact associated to a given security measure which allows to compute the return on response investment for different candidates. A simple case study is proposed at the end of the paper to show the applicability of the model.Comment: In Proceedings AIDP 2014, arXiv:1410.322

DAG-Based Attack and Defense Modeling: Don't Miss the Forest for the Attack Trees

This paper presents the current state of the art on attack and defense modeling approaches that are based on directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). DAGs allow for a hierarchical decomposition of complex scenarios into simple, easily understandable and quantifiable actions. Methods based on threat trees and Bayesian networks are two well-known approaches to security modeling. However there exist more than 30 DAG-based methodologies, each having different features and goals. The objective of this survey is to present a complete overview of graphical attack and defense modeling techniques based on DAGs. This consists of summarizing the existing methodologies, comparing their features and proposing a taxonomy of the described formalisms. This article also supports the selection of an adequate modeling technique depending on user requirements

Architecture-based Qualitative Risk Analysis for Availability of IT Infrastructures

An IT risk assessment must deliver the best possible quality of results in a time-effective way. Organisations are used to customise the general-purpose standard risk assessment methods in a way that can satisfy their requirements. In this paper we present the QualTD Model and method, which is meant to be employed together with standard risk assessment methods for the qualitative assessment of availability risks of IT architectures, or parts of them. The QualTD Model is based on our previous quantitative model, but geared to industrial practice since it does not require quantitative data which is often too costly to acquire. We validate the model and method in a real-world case by performing a risk assessment on the authentication and authorisation system of a large multinational company and by evaluating the results w.r.t. the goals of the stakeholders of the system. We also perform a review of the most popular standard risk assessment methods and an analysis of which one can be actually integrated with our QualTD Model

Realtime Intrusion Risk Assessment Model based on Attack and Service Dependency Graphs

Network services are becoming larger and increasingly complex to manage. It is extremely critical to maintain the users QoS, the response time of applications, and critical services in high demand. On the other hand, we see impressive changes in the ways in which attackers gain access to systems and infect services. When an attack is detected, an Intrusion Response System (IRS) is responsible to accurately assess the value of the loss incurred by a compromised resource and apply the proper responses to mitigate attack. Without having a proper risk assessment, our automated IRS will reduce network performance, wrongly disconnect users from the network, or result in high costs for administrators reestablishing services, and become a DoS attack for our network, which will eventually have to be disabled. In this paper, we address these challenges and we propose a new model to combine the Attack Graph and Service Dependency Graph approaches to calculate the impact of an attack more accurately compared to other existing solutions. To show the effectiveness of our model, a sophisticated multi-step attack was designed to compromise a web server, as well as to acquire root privilege. Our results illustrate the efficiency of the proposed model and confirm the feasibility of the approach in real-time

Cybersecurity Acquisition Framework Based on Risk Management: Economics Perspective

Acquisition Research Program Sponsored Report SeriesSponsored Acquisition Research & Technical ReportsCyber attacks continuously target organizations, however, the mitigation actions taken for defense are not sufficiently effective. Ability to compute the cost of attacks is crucial to assess the effectiveness of countermeasure investments. In this study, we developed a framework to have a well-informed decision-making process in cybersecurity acquisition by evaluating the business impact caused by the operability losses of assets. We tested the developed framework using various attack and mitigation scenarios. The findings suggest that using a simulation approach to calculate the business impact of cyber attacks provides the ability to support decision-making process.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited