Estimating software project effort using analogies

Accurate project effort prediction is an important goal for the software engineering community. To date most work has focused upon building algorithmic models of effort, for example COCOMO. These can be calibrated to local environments. We describe an alternative approach to estimation based upon the use of analogies. The underlying principle is to characterise projects in terms of features (for example, the number of interfaces, the development method or the size of the functional requirements document). Completed projects are stored and then the problem becomes one of finding the most similar projects to the one for which a prediction is required. Similarity is defined as Euclidean distance in n-dimensional space where n is the number of project features. Each dimension is standardised so all dimensions have equal weight. The known effort values of the nearest neighbours to the new project are then used as the basis for the prediction. The process is automated using a PC based tool known as ANGEL. The method is validated on nine different industrial datasets (a total of 275 projects) and in all cases analogy outperforms algorithmic models based upon stepwise regression. From this work we argue that estimation by analogy is a viable technique that, at the very least, can be used by project managers to complement current estimation techniques

Application of expert systems in project management decision aiding

The feasibility of developing an expert systems-based project management decision aid to enhance the performance of NASA project managers was assessed. The research effort included extensive literature reviews in the areas of project management, project management decision aiding, expert systems technology, and human-computer interface engineering. Literature reviews were augmented by focused interviews with NASA managers. Time estimation for project scheduling was identified as the target activity for decision augmentation, and a design was developed for an Integrated NASA System for Intelligent Time Estimation (INSITE). The proposed INSITE design was judged feasible with a low level of risk. A partial proof-of-concept experiment was performed and was successful. Specific conclusions drawn from the research and analyses are included. The INSITE concept is potentially applicable in any management sphere, commercial or government, where time estimation is required for project scheduling. As project scheduling is a nearly universal management activity, the range of possibilities is considerable. The INSITE concept also holds potential for enhancing other management tasks, especially in areas such as cost estimation, where estimation-by-analogy is already a proven method

Investigating effort prediction of web-based applications using CBR on the ISBSG dataset

As web-based applications become more popular and more sophisticated, so does the requirement for early accurate estimates of the effort required to build such systems. Case-based reasoning (CBR) has been shown to be a reasonably effective estimation strategy, although it has not been widely explored in the context of web applications. This paper reports on a study carried out on a subset of the ISBSG dataset to examine the optimal number of analogies that should be used in making a prediction. The results show that it is not possible to select such a value with confidence, and that, in common with other findings in different domains, the effectiveness of CBR is hampered by other factors including the characteristics of the underlying dataset (such as the spread of data and presence of outliers) and the calculation employed to evaluate the distance function (in particular, the treatment of numeric and categorical data)

A framework for integrating syntax, semantics and pragmatics for computer-aided professional practice: With application of costing in construction industry

Producing a bill of quantity is a knowledge-based, dynamic and collaborative process, and evolves with variances and current evidence. However, within the context of information system practice in BIM, knowledge of cost estimation has not been represented, nor has it been integrated into the processes based on BIM. This paper intends to establish an innovative means of taking data from the BIM linked to a project, and using it to create the necessary items for a bill of quantity that will enable cost estimation to be undertaken for the project. Our framework is founded upon the belief that three components are necessary to gain a full awareness of the domain which is being computerised; the information type which is to be assessed for compatibility (syntax), the definition for the pricing domain (semantics), and the precise implementation environment for the standards being taken into account (pragmatics). In order to achieve this, a prototype is created that allows a cost item for the bill of quantity to be spontaneously generated, by means of the semantic web ontology and a forward chain algorithm. Within this paper, ‘cost items’ signify the elements included in a bill of quantity, including details of their description, quantity and price. As a means of authenticating the process being developed, the authors of this work effectively implemented it in the production of cost items. In addition, the items created were contrasted with those produced by specialists. For this reason, this innovative framework introduces the possibility of a new means of applying semantic web ontology and forward chain algorithm to construction professional practice resulting in automatic cost estimation. These key outcomes demonstrate that, decoupling the professional practice into three key components of syntax, semantics and pragmatics can provide tangible benefits to domain use

Predicting with sparse data

It is well known that effective prediction of project cost related factors is an important aspect of software engineering. Unfortunately, despite extensive research over more than 30 years, this remains a significant problem for many practitioners. A major obstacle is the absence of reliable and systematic historic data, yet this is a sine qua non for almost all proposed methods: statistical, machine learning or calibration of existing models. In this paper we describe our sparse data method (SDM) based upon a pairwise comparison technique and Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Our minimum data requirement is a single known point. The technique is supported by a software tool known as DataSalvage. We show, for data from two companies, how our approach — based upon expert judgement — adds value to expert judgement by producing significantly more accurate and less biased results. A sensitivity analysis shows that our approach is robust to pairwise comparison errors. We then describe the results of a small usability trial with a practising project manager. From this empirical work we conclude that the technique is promising and may help overcome some of the present barriers to effective project prediction

A Process Framework for Semantics-aware Tourism Information Systems

The growing sophistication of user requirements in tourism due to the advent of new technologies such as the Semantic Web and mobile computing has imposed new possibilities for improved intelligence in Tourism Information Systems (TIS). Traditional software engineering and web engineering approaches cannot suffice, hence the need to find new product development approaches that would sufficiently enable the next generation of TIS. The next generation of TIS are expected among other things to: enable semantics-based information processing, exhibit natural language capabilities, facilitate inter-organization exchange of information in a seamless way, and evolve proactively in tandem with dynamic user requirements. In this paper, a product development approach called Product Line for Ontology-based Semantics-Aware Tourism Information Systems (PLOSATIS) which is a novel hybridization of software product line engineering, and Semantic Web engineering concepts is proposed. PLOSATIS is presented as potentially effective, predictable and amenable to software process improvement initiatives