Copula Theory and Regression Analysis

Researchers are often interested to study in the relationships between one variable and several other variables. Regression analysis is the statistical method for investigating such relationship and it is one of the most commonly used statistical Methods in many scientific fields such as financial data analysis, medicine, biology, agriculture, economics, engineering, sociology, geology, etc. But basic form of the regression analysis, ordinary least squares is not suitable for actuarial applications because the relationships are often nonlinear and the probability distribution of the response variable may be non-Gaussian distribution. One of the method that has been successful in overcoming these challenges is the generalized linear model (GLM), which requires that the response variable have a distribution from the exponential family. In this research work, we study copula regression as an alternative method to OLS and GLM. The major advantage of a copula regression is that there are no restrictions on the probability distributions that can be used. First part of this study, we will briefly discuss about copula regression by using several variety of marginal copula functions and copula regression is the most appropriate method in non Gaussian variable(violated normality assumption) regression model fitting. Also we validated our results by using real world example data and random generated (50000 observations) data. Second part of this study, we discussed about multiple regression model based on copula theory, and also we derived multiple regression line equation for Multivariate Non-Exchangeable Generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copula function

Hydrological Drought Analysis Based on Copula Theory

Drought has been a more frequent phenomenon of major concern all over the world. From the perspective of water resources management, one of the biggest problems associated with drought analyses is a lack of quantitative estimation for the target drought amount. The objective of this study is to examine the establishing process for the severity-duration-frequency (hereafter referred as “SDF”) curves on climate change. The standardized truncation level that defines hydrological drought was estimated and a bivariate frequency analysis for drought duration and severity was derived. The SDF curves were also estimated. The methodology suggested in this study could be used as elementary data for water resources managements

Extreme-Value Copulas

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise naturally in the domain of extreme-value theory, they can also be a convenient choice to model general positive dependence structures. The aim of this survey is to present the reader with the state-of-the-art in dependence modeling via extreme-value copulas. Both probabilistic and statistical issues are reviewed, in a nonparametric as well as a parametric context.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures. Minor revision, typos corrected. To appear in F. Durante, W. Haerdle, P. Jaworski, and T. Rychlik (editors) "Workshop on Copula Theory and its Applications", Lecture Notes in Statistics -- Proceedings, Springer 201