Some numerical methods for solving stochastic impulse control in natural gas storage facilities

The valuation of gas storage facilities is characterized as a stochastic impulse control problem with finite horizon resulting in Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations for the value function. In this context the two catagories of solving schemes for optimal switching are discussed in a stochastic control framework. We reviewed some numerical methods which include approaches related to partial differential equations (PDEs), Markov chain approximation, nonparametric regression, quantization method and some practitioners’ methods. This paper considers optimal switching problem arising in valuation of gas storage contracts for leasing the storage facilities, and investigates the recent developments as well as their advantages and disadvantages of each scheme based on dynamic programming principle (DPP

On the Wiener disorder problem

In the Wiener disorder problem, the drift of a Wiener process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. The objective is to detect this change as quickly as possible after it happens. Earlier work on the Bayesian formulation of this problem brings optimal (or asymptotically optimal) detection rules assuming that the prior distribution of the change time is given at time zero, and additional information is received by observing the Wiener process only. Here, we consider a different information structure where possible causes of this disorder are observed. More precisely, we assume that we also observe an arrival/counting process representing external shocks. The disorder happens because of these shocks, and the change time coincides with one of the arrival times. Such a formulation arises, for example, from detecting a change in financial data caused by major financial events, or detecting damages in structures caused by earthquakes. In this paper, we formulate the problem in a Bayesian framework assuming that those observable shocks form a Poisson process. We present an optimal detection rule that minimizes a linear Bayes risk, which includes the expected detection delay and the probability of early false alarms. We also give the solution of the ``variational formulation'' where the objective is to minimize the detection delay over all stopping rules for which the false alarm probability does not exceed a given constant.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AAP655 the Annals of Applied Probability (http://www.imstat.org/aap/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Interpretable statistics for complex modelling: quantile and topological learning

As the complexity of our data increased exponentially in the last decades, so has our need for interpretable features. This thesis revolves around two paradigms to approach this quest for insights. In the first part we focus on parametric models, where the problem of interpretability can be seen as a “parametrization selection”. We introduce a quantile-centric parametrization and we show the advantages of our proposal in the context of regression, where it allows to bridge the gap between classical generalized linear (mixed) models and increasingly popular quantile methods. The second part of the thesis, concerned with topological learning, tackles the problem from a non-parametric perspective. As topology can be thought of as a way of characterizing data in terms of their connectivity structure, it allows to represent complex and possibly high dimensional through few features, such as the number of connected components, loops and voids. We illustrate how the emerging branch of statistics devoted to recovering topological structures in the data, Topological Data Analysis, can be exploited both for exploratory and inferential purposes with a special emphasis on kernels that preserve the topological information in the data. Finally, we show with an application how these two approaches can borrow strength from one another in the identification and description of brain activity through fMRI data from the ABIDE project

DTR Bandit: Learning to Make Response-Adaptive Decisions With Low Regret

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are affected by decisions in prior stages. Examples include personalized first- and second-line treatments of chronic conditions like diabetes, cancer, and depression, which adapt to patient response to first-line treatment, disease progression, and individual characteristics. While existing literature mostly focuses on estimating the optimal DTR from offline data such as from sequentially randomized trials, we study the problem of developing the optimal DTR in an online manner, where the interaction with each individual affect both our cumulative reward and our data collection for future learning. We term this the DTR bandit problem. We propose a novel algorithm that, by carefully balancing exploration and exploitation, is guaranteed to achieve rate-optimal regret when the transition and reward models are linear. We demonstrate our algorithm and its benefits both in synthetic experiments and in a case study of adaptive treatment of major depressive disorder using real-world data

Numerical Hermitian Yang-Mills Connections and Kahler Cone Substructure

We further develop the numerical algorithm for computing the gauge connection of slope-stable holomorphic vector bundles on Calabi-Yau manifolds. In particular, recent work on the generalized Donaldson algorithm is extended to bundles with Kahler cone substructure on manifolds with h^{1,1}>1. Since the computation depends only on a one-dimensional ray in the Kahler moduli space, it can probe slope-stability regardless of the size of h^{1,1}. Suitably normalized error measures are introduced to quantitatively compare results for different directions in Kahler moduli space. A significantly improved numerical integration procedure based on adaptive refinements is described and implemented. Finally, an efficient numerical check is proposed for determining whether or not a vector bundle is slope-stable without computing its full connection.Comment: 38 pages, 10 figure

Computational fluid dynamics of coupled free/porous regimes: a specialised case of pleated cartridge filter

The multidisciplinary project AEROFIL has been defined and coordinated with the idea of developing novel filter designs to be employed in aeronautic hydraulic systems. The cartridge filters would be constructed using eco-friendly filtration media supported by unconventional disposable or reusable solid components. My main contribution to this project is the development of a robust and cost-effective design and analysis tool for simulating the hydrodynamics in these pleated cartridge filters. The coupled free and porous flow regimes are generally observed in filtration processes. These processes have been the subject of intense investigation for researchers over the decades who are striving hard to resolve some of the critical issues related to the free/porous interfacial constraints and their mathematical representations concerning its industrial applications. [Continues.