Key challenges in agent-based modelling for geo-spatial simulation

Agent-based modelling (ABM) is fast becoming the dominant paradigm in social simulation due primarily to a worldview that suggests that complex systems emerge from the bottom-up, are highly decentralised, and are composed of a multitude of heterogeneous objects called agents. These agents act with some purpose and their interaction, usually through time and space, generates emergent order, often at higher levels than those at which such agents operate. ABM however raises as many challenges as it seeks to resolve. It is the purpose of this paper to catalogue these challenges and to illustrate them using three somewhat different agent-based models applied to city systems. The seven challenges we pose involve: the purpose for which the model is built, the extent to which the model is rooted in independent theory, the extent to which the model can be replicated, the ways the model might be verified, calibrated and validated, the way model dynamics are represented in terms of agent interactions, the extent to which the model is operational, and the way the model can be communicated and shared with others. Once catalogued, we then illustrate these challenges with a pedestrian model for emergency evacuation in central London, a hypothetical model of residential segregation tuned to London data which elaborates the standard Schelling (1971) model, and an agent-based residential location built according to spatial interactions principles, calibrated to trip data for Greater London. The ambiguities posed by this new style of modelling are drawn out as conclusions

Encoding natural movement as an agent-based system: an investigation into human pedestrian behaviour in the built environment

Gibson's ecological theory of perception has received considerable attention within psychology literature, as well as in computer vision and robotics. However, few have applied Gibson's approach to agent-based models of human movement, because the ecological theory requires that individuals have a vision-based mental model of the world, and for large numbers of agents this becomes extremely expensive computationally. Thus, within current pedestrian models, path evaluation is based on calibration from observed data or on sophisticated but deterministic route-choice mechanisms; there is little open-ended behavioural modelling of human-movement patterns. One solution which allows individuals rapid concurrent access to the visual information within an environment is an 'exosomatic visual architecture" where the connections between mutually visible locations within a configuration are prestored in a lookup table. Here we demonstrate that, with the aid of an exosomatic visual architecture, it is possible to develop behavioural models in which movement rules originating from Gibson's principle of affordance are utilised. We apply large numbers of agents programmed with these rules to a built-environment example and show that, by varying parameters such as destination selection, field of view, and steps taken between decision points, it is possible to generate aggregate movement levels very similar to those found in an actual building context

Quickest Paths in Simulations of Pedestrians

This contribution proposes a method to make agents in a microscopic simulation of pedestrian traffic walk approximately along a path of estimated minimal remaining travel time to their destination. Usually models of pedestrian dynamics are (implicitly) built on the assumption that pedestrians walk along the shortest path. Model elements formulated to make pedestrians locally avoid collisions and intrusion into personal space do not produce motion on quickest paths. Therefore a special model element is needed, if one wants to model and simulate pedestrians for whom travel time matters most (e.g. travelers in a station hall who are late for a train). Here such a model element is proposed, discussed and used within the Social Force Model.Comment: revised version submitte

Passenger Flows in Underground Railway Stations and Platforms, MTI Report 12-43

Urban rail systems are designed to carry large volumes of people into and out of major activity centers. As a result, the stations at these major activity centers are often crowded with boarding and alighting passengers, resulting in passenger inconvenience, delays, and at times danger. This study examines the planning and analysis of station passenger queuing and flows to offer rail transit station designers and transit system operators guidance on how to best accommodate and manage their rail passengers. The objectives of the study are to: 1) Understand the particular infrastructural, operational, behavioral, and spatial factors that affect and may constrain passenger queuing and flows in different types of rail transit stations; 2) Identify, compare, and evaluate practices for efficient, expedient, and safe passenger flows in different types of station environments and during typical (rush hour) and atypical (evacuations, station maintenance/ refurbishment) situations; and 3) Compile short-, medium-, and long-term recommendations for optimizing passenger flows in different station environments

Agent Street: An Environment for Exploring Agent-Based Models in Second Life

Urban models can be seen on a continuum between iconic and symbolic. Generally speaking, iconic models are physical versions of the real world at some scaled down representation, while symbolic models represent the system in terms of the way they function replacing the physical or material system by some logical and/or mathematical formulae. Traditionally iconic and symbolic models were distinct classes of model but due to the rise of digital computing the distinction between the two is becoming blurred, with symbolic models being embedded into iconic models. However, such models tend to be single user. This paper demonstrates how 3D symbolic models in the form of agent-based simulations can be embedded into iconic models using the multi-user virtual world of Second Life. Furthermore, the paper demonstrates Second Life\'s potential for social science simulation. To demonstrate this, we first introduce Second Life and provide two exemplar models; Conway\'s Game of Life, and Schelling\'s Segregation Model which highlight how symbolic models can be viewed in an iconic environment. We then present a simple pedestrian evacuation model which merges the iconic and symbolic together and extends the model to directly incorporate avatars and agents in the same environment illustrating how \'real\' participants can influence simulation outcomes. Such examples demonstrate the potential for creating highly visual, immersive, interactive agent-based models for social scientists in multi-user real time virtual worlds. The paper concludes with some final comments on problems with representing models in current virtual worlds and future avenues of research.Agent-Based Modelling, Pedestrian Evacuation, Segregation, Virtual Worlds, Second Life

Priority Management for Urban Arterials. Transferability of Techniques: Methodology and Summary.

This paper describes the background and methodology employed in research funded by EPSRC to assess the effect of individual traffic control measures on urban arterials, both in isolation and in combination. The aim of the project was to test the transferability of the techniques developed in a DRIVE II project, PRIMAVERA, to a range of different types of urban corridor. Measures have been classed into three broad categories: Congestion Management, Public Transport Priority and Traffic Calming. The scope of these measures is wide, some operating at a junction level whilst others have an impact over a whole corridor. Measures from these categories are applied in a sophisticated microsimulation model of a series of hypothetical networks and four urban arterial corridors: three in Leeds and one in Leicester. The effects of the application of individual and integrated measures are assessed in terms of their efficiency, environmental and safety impacts using a form of Multi-Criteria Analysis. Travel time and other monetary costs are also taken into consideration. Whilst these results are of interest to local planners in the operation of each of the arterial corridors studied, a wider insight into the operation of urban arterials can be drawn from this study leading to more efficient control of the available road space