SHIP COLLISION RISK ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR QINZHOU PORT BASED ON EVENT SEQUENCE DIAGRAM

Qinzhou Port is one of the most important ports in the “Beibu Gulf” of China. It is also the main hub port of the "21st century maritime silk road" strategy. Based on a basic collision risk assessment approach, an Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) model that explains the four-stage collision avoidance decision-making procedure is proposed from the perspectives of perception, cognition, decision, and execution. Using the historical data derived from collision accident reports from the Qinzhou Port waters from 2013 to 2017, as well as the data elicited from expert knowledge, a quantitative evaluation of probability distributions of different collision failure modes is performed. The results are also compared with relevant results from other types of navigation waters to analyse collision risk level of Qinzhou waters. At the same time, the main failures paths of collision avoidance decision making are identified. The proposed model can provide with an overall collision risk picture from a macro perspective

Towards an evidence-based probabilistic risk model for ship-grounding accidents

AbstractMost of the risk models for ship-grounding accidents do not fully utilize available evidence, since it is based on accident statistics and expert opinions. The major issue with such kinds of models is their limitation in supporting the process of risk-management with respect to grounding accidents, since they do not reflect the reality to the extent required. This paper presents an evidence-based and expert-supported approach to structure a model assessing the probability of ship-grounding accidents, to make it more suitable for risk-management purposes. The approach focuses on using evidential data of ship-grounding accidents extracted from the actual accident and incident reports as well as the judgement elicited from the experts regarding the links and probabilities not supported by the reports. The developed probabilistic model gathers, in a causal fashion, the evidential contributing factors in ship-grounding accidents. The outcome of the model is the probability of a ship-grounding accident given the prior and posterior probabilities of the contributing factors. Moreover, the uncertainties associated with the elements of the model are clearly communicated to the end-user adopting a concept of strength-of-knowledge. The model can be used to suggest proper risk-control-measures to mitigate the risk. By running uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of the model, the areas that need more research for making educated decisions are defined. The model suggests the high-level critical parameters that need proper control measures are complexity of waterways, traffic situations encountered, and off-coursed ships. The critical area that calls for more investigation is the onboard presence of a sea-pilot

Improvement Opportunities in Commodity Trucks Delivery in Globalized Markets

Market globalization has posed the problem of finding economical routes of product delivery one of which is via a system of intermodal motor traction. Currently, the automotive manufacturing plant KAMAZ supplies its products and accompanying servicing to countries in Europe, Asia, Africa and Latin America, and intends to extend the market. This study deals with peculiarities of the organization of spare parts delivery to the dealer-service network abroad. Risks of water haul are considered; methods for improving of transportation planning by developing a decision support system are proposed

Ports’ congestion factors: Applying risk analysis as a problem identification tool to figure out the interrelated complex factors that contribute to the problem by assigning weights and probabilities to each factor

Ports’ congestion is a recurring problem that is caused by several factors. There are several past attempts to resolve ports’ congestion by applying governing and constructional reforms. Due to divergence and instability of congestion causal factors, the available studies and solutions are specific to individual ports. The main objective of this master thesis is to apply risk analysis as a problem identifier to figure out the interrelated complex factors that contribute to the congestion problem by assigning weights and probabilities to each factor. The research is based on qualitative data from secondary sources to gather all available information about the causal factors for ports’ congestion. A structured questionnaire was carried out and sent to various ports’ managers to figure out the most effective causal factors globally, as a means of validation for the secondary data and to ensure that the data reflect the current congestions causing factors from the port’s users themselves. Congestion’s factors can be human, technical, or organizational with different magnitudes based on the port’s features and capabilities. They are vulnerable to sudden and quick changes due to their interrelated and complex structure. Bayesian network (BN) is a risk analysis tool that fits the complex and changing scenarios of the congestion problem. It can incorporate the newly received information into the pre-established network of causal factors for port congestion. BN managed to reflect the cause-and-effect relationship between the causal factors and by means of appropriate software, the effect of any new event on congestion occurrence is visualized. Furthermore, the application of BN needs to be integrated into the port information management system as a permanent warning system that predicts the congestion and virtually shows the results of applying suggested solutions before applying it. Keywords: port congestion, congestion factors, Bayesian network, port productivit

Risk Assessment and Management for Maritime SAR and Oil Spill Response

This report summarizes selected publications that deal with maritime Search and Rescue (SAR) operations, winter navigation as well as oil spill response. In the first part of this report, the SAR capabilities, response times and effects of weather on Finnish Search and Rescue Units (SRUs) are evaluated. Besides this, the risk of oil spill and effects of winter conditions were evaluated. Two of the most relevant accident types – collisions consequences on oil tanker and RoPAx vessels – were evaluated. Both tankers as well as RoPax vessels are very common vessels in the Gulf of Finland, carrying thousands passengers or tonnes of oil. However, during the project it was found that there are currently no particularly reliable methods for assessing which sea areas are most prone to accidents. This highlights the need for future research in the methodology. Furthermore, a model is presented that describes the interaction between ships and the ice when navigating in an ice channel. This model helps to understand better the increased side forces and yaw that occurs in ice channel when compared to sailing in open waters. This can be used to train bridge personnel to better understand their ship's behavior under challenging ice channel conditions, thus decreasing risk.  A final model describes how fast an oil slick will spread in an ice channel as a function of factors such as the ice concentration and ice floe size, allowing for better estimation of how far oil will spread until effective clean-up measures can be taken