9 research outputs found

    Stability and determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio: an Input Output – Stock Flow Consistent approach

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    The paper develops a dynamic Input Output - Stock Flow consistent model based on the Supermultiplier approach. This framework integrates the dimension of output determination with the system of relative prices. Through this model, we define the determinants of the public debt-to-GDP ratio and the conditions for its stability. The main results of the research show that: i) Given the interest rate, the saving rate, the tax rate, the industrial profit rate and the coefficients of production there exist a steady-state value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio ingrained in the economic system. This result calls into question the idea of imposing budgetary rules with threshold levels independently from the very specific features of each economic system; ii) Expansions in the level of public expenditure have a permanent effect on the public debt-to-GDP ratio only in the presence of the accelerator effect, that is, through an induced increase in the share of private indebtedness on GDP and aggregate debt. Because of the accelerator channel, the public debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the capital intensity of the aggregate production process and, thus, on the system of relative prices. With this respect, the capital intensity determines the elasticity of private indebtedness with respect to one-point change in public spending; iii) Conversely to the neoclassical argument, the relationship between the interest rate and public debt-to-GDP ratio goes from the first to the second. In particular, changes in the interest rate modify the public debt-to-GDP ratio through both variations in the quantitative and value dimension. Such variations have a puzzling effect on the steady-state value of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. For instance, the reverse capital deepening implies that an increase in the interest rate produces a decrease in the public debt-to-GDP ratio. Finally, we point out that, in contrast to the standard argument proposed by mainstream macroeconomics, the condition of fiscal balance jointly a positive differential between the growth rate of output and the interest rate has no relevance for the stability conditions of the public debt-to-GDP ratio. In this regard, we develop a taxonomy of the growth regimes depicted by the model deriving such conditions in each scenario. The necessary condition of stability is the absence of budgetary constraints, it becomes sufficient when one of the following is respected: the growth rate of primary public expenditure is higher than zero, the interest rate is higher than zero or the propensity to consume out of wealth is non-zero

    For Right and Might: The Militarization of the Cold War and the Remaking of American Democracy

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    This dissertation examines how Cold War defense spending shaped the evolution of American political culture and public policy from the 1940s until the 1990s. It argues that the Cold War economy contributed to the realignment of American politics in the postwar era. The fight against global communism abroad altered the structure, purpose, and public perception of the federal government following World War II, but also subsidized corporations, suburban communities, and individuals affected by defense spending. The militarization of the Cold War therefore created various dependents of America\u27s military and defense apparatus that continuously pressed for more defense spending during the Cold War, even if increases in the military budget were strategically and economically gratuitous. Americans in communities dependent upon defense contractors for employment and economic growth lobbied their political representatives to allocate more defense contracts to their towns, while defense companies and contractors formed alliances with activists, politicians, defense workers, and labor unions to ensure their profitability in the face of cuts to the defense budget. The combination of these forces created a unique Cold War coalition that worked to keep the defense economy active in shaping the domestic and foreign policies of the United States. As the constitutive elements of the defense economy were threatened with defense cuts and a thaw in the Cold War after the 1960s, they increasingly gravitated toward political figures and officials who promised continued defense spending. After the economic crisis of the 1970s, residents of such Cold War communities saw job losses to inflation and stagnation, but also to a drawdown in the Vietnam War and the era of détente. By the end of the Cold War, communities reliant upon the Department of Defense for employment supported conservative proposals for the reduction of federal taxes and government influence in regulating local economies, while also campaigning for additional federal defense contracts to keep local economies afloat. By exploring the realignment of American politics through the context of global events--and their impact on local politics--this dissertation considers how the personal livelihoods and political prejudices of Americans shaped both national politics and foreign affairs

    Technology and Strategic Management Decision-Making as a Constrained Shortest Path Problem

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    A constrained shortest path algorithm is developed and implemented in Matlab to optimize the management decision-making process, which is a potential tool for managers. An empirical analysis is performed using Statistics Canada’s Workplace and Employee Survey (WES), which consists of variables relating to employers and their employees, conducted from years 1999 through 2004, inclusively. Specifically, the research explores the relationships among variables such as innovation, technology use, training and human resource management and its effect on the success of the firm in terms of profit and labor productivity. The results are compared to the current literature in technology and organizational management. In general, it is discovered that optimal management strategies are highly dependent upon the performance in which the firm operates. Additionally, the constrained shortest path algorithm developed for the thesis is tested against other leading methods in the literature and is found to be quite competitive. The tests are run on randomly generated constrained shortest path problems of varying degrees of complexity with the algorithm performing well on all levels

    Dynamic Generalisation of Continuous Action Spaces in Reinforcement Learning: A Neurally Inspired Approach

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    Institute for Adaptive and Neural ComputationAward number: 98318242.This thesis is about the dynamic generalisation of continuous action spaces in reinforcement learning problems. The standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) account provides a principled and comprehensive means of optimising a scalar reward signal in a Markov Decision Process. However, the theory itself does not directly address the imperative issue of generalisation which naturally arises as a consequence of large or continuous state and action spaces. A current thrust of research is aimed at fusing the generalisation capabilities of supervised (and unsupervised) learning techniques with the RL theory. An example par excellence is Tesauro’s TD-Gammon. Although much effort has gone into researching ways to represent and generalise over the input space, much less attention has been paid to the action space. This thesis first considers the motivation for learning real-valued actions, and then proposes a set of key properties desirable in any candidate algorithm addressing generalisation of both input and action spaces. These properties include: Provision of adaptive and online generalisation, adherence to the standard theory with a central focus on estimating expected reward, provision for real-valued states and actions, and full support for a real-valued discounted reward signal. Of particular interest are issues pertaining to robustness in non-stationary environments, scalability, and efficiency for real-time learning in applications such as robotics. Since exploring the action space is discovered to be a potentially costly process, the system should also be flexible enough to enable maximum reuse of learned actions. A new approach is proposed which succeeds for the first time in addressing all of the key issues identified. The algorithm, which is based on the ubiquitous self-organising map, is analysed and compared with other techniques including those based on the backpropagation algorithm. The investigation uncovers some important implications of the differences between these two particular approaches with respect to RL. In particular, the distributed representation of the multi-layer perceptron is judged to be something of a double-edged sword offering more sophisticated and more scalable generalising power, but potentially causing problems in dynamic or non-equiprobable environments, and tasks involving a highly varying input-output mapping. The thesis concludes that the self-organising map can be used in conjunction with current RL theory to provide real-time dynamic representation and generalisation of continuous action spaces. The proposed model is shown to be reliable in non-stationary, unpredictable and noisy environments and judged to be unique in addressing and satisfying a number of desirable properties identified as important to a large class of RL problems

    Computational modelling of the golf stroke

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    The golf stroke was computationally modelled using finite element analysis. Results for the impact between the club head and the ball compared well with previous research, both practical and theoretical. The results imply that for thick face club heads, such as irons, club head performance is independent of material stiffness but highly dependent on the friction of the interface and the clubhead geometry. The three ball flight predictors (speed, trajectory and spin rate) as a function of clubhead parameters are shown to be non-trivial. Acceptable models of impact could be achieved using rigid faces for thick face clubheads with the centre of mass and clubhead inertia accurately described. Results on ball construction effects imply that both the stiffness and mass distribution throughout the ball affect performance. The large deformations of the ball mean that classic rigid body mechanics cannot suffice in golf impact predictions. A model of the golf swing based on a double pendulum was constructed and shaft performance examined for various styles of golf swing. Shaft parameters thought to affect performance were quantitatively evaluated and results compared well with previous research. Increased club head speeds at impact were achieved with shafts of lighter weight or reduced bending stiffness for all styles of golf swing examined. The cause of bending forward of the shaft at impact was identified to occur from the large centrifugal forces acting on the head and the increased bending stiffness of the shaft also due to centrifugal force. On a detailed level shaft behaviour was affected by vibrations which appeared chaotic due to the changing stiffness of the system. This is expected to be less of an effect in an actual golf shot due to the damping provided by the human participant

    The Doctrine of The Atonement in The Light of Christ's Teaching and Ministry

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    The usefulness of accounting to trade unions.

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    The objective of this dissertation is to analyse some important aspects of the issue of the usefulness of accounting to trade unions. This issue raises fundamental questions as to whether trade unions must plan for or simply represent the interests of employees in the modern business enterprise. The analysis presented suggests that trade union use of accounting information, within the business enterprise will be restricted so long as they pursue re-active, oppositional policies within a context established by management strategic planning practices and consequently will have little influence on events. Both a theoretical review of the principles of strategic planning and an examination of recent economic history shows that management do not plan to promote the interests of employees, and that managerial control of the strategic planning process is of vital importance. In consequence, I argue that the power latent in trade unions can only be harnessed if they reconceptualise their central 'organizing principles' around challenging management strategic planning prerogatives by developing an independent ability to plan. Previous research into the usefulness of information to trade unions has not recognized this planning requirement and has, in consequence, been highly restricted in perspective and has under estimated the usefulness of information to trade unions. The methodology of this thesis is qualitative. By collecting unstructured, in-depth data from a major case study, it has been possible not only to assess the usefulness of accounting information to trade unions, but also, crucially, to analyse it within the context of problems which trade unions confront in developing a constructive response to economic change
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