A formal method for identifying distinct states of variability in time-varying sources: SgrA* as an example

Continuously time variable sources are often characterized by their power spectral density and flux distribution. These quantities can undergo dramatic changes over time if the underlying physical processes change. However, some changes can be subtle and not distinguishable using standard statistical approaches. Here, we report a methodology that aims to identify distinct but similar states of time variability. We apply this method to the Galactic supermassive black hole, where 2.2 um flux is observed from a source associated with SgrA*, and where two distinct states have recently been suggested. Our approach is taken from mathematical finance and works with conditional flux density distributions that depend on the previous flux value. The discrete, unobserved (hidden) state variable is modeled as a stochastic process and the transition probabilities are inferred from the flux density time series. Using the most comprehensive data set to date, in which all Keck and a majority of the publicly available VLT data have been merged, we show that SgrA* is sufficiently described by a single intrinsic state. However the observed flux densities exhibit two states: a noise-dominated and a source-dominated one. Our methodology reported here will prove extremely useful to assess the effects of the putative gas cloud G2 that is on its way toward the black hole and might create a new state of variability.Comment: Submitted to ApJ; 33 pages, 4 figures; comments welcom

Measuring and Monitoring Cognition in the Postoperative Period

It is common for patients of all ages to experience some degree of cognitive disturbance following surgery. In most cases, impairment appears mild and is restricted to the acute post-operative period, resolving steadily and speedily. In a small number of cases, however, deficits may be more pronounced and/or endure for longer periods, significantly delaying recovery and increasing the risk of serious clinical complications. The ability to accurately measure postoperative cognition, and track recovery of function, is an important clinical task. This review explores practical and methodological issues that may confound this process, examining how best to obtain reliable and meaningful measures of cognition before and after surgery. It considers neuropsychological test selection, administration, analysis and interpretation and offers evidence-based practice points for clinicians and researchers

X-ray reverberation in NLS1

Reverberation from scattering material around the black hole in active galactic nuclei is expected to produce a characteristic signature in a Fourier analysis of the time delays between directly-viewed continuum emission and the scattered light. Narrow-line Seyfert 1 galaxies (NLS1) are highly variable at X-ray energies, and are ideal candidates for the detection of X-ray reverberation. We show new analysis of a small sample of NLS1 that clearly shows the expected time-delay signature, providing strong evidence for the existence of a high covering fraction of scattering and absorbing material a few tens to hundreds of gravitational radii from the black hole. We also show that an alternative interpretation of time delays in the NLS1 1H0707-495, as arising about one gravitational radius from the black hole, is strongly disfavoured in an analysis of the energy-dependence of the time delays.Comment: Published online in Proceedings of Science, "Narrow-line Seyfert 1 Galaxies and their place in the Universe", held in Milan, Italy April 4-6, 201

Quantifying the time course of visual object processing using ERPs: it's time to up the game

Hundreds of studies have investigated the early ERPs to faces and objects using scalp and intracranial recordings. The vast majority of these studies have used uncontrolled stimuli, inappropriate designs, peak measurements, poor figures, and poor inferential and descriptive group statistics. These problems, together with a tendency to discuss any effect p < 0.05 rather than to report effect sizes, have led to a research field very much qualitative in nature, despite its quantitative inspirations, and in which predictions do not go beyond condition A > condition B. Here we describe the main limitations of face and object ERP research and suggest alternative strategies to move forward. The problems plague intracranial and surface ERP studies, but also studies using more advanced techniques – e.g., source space analyses and measurements of network dynamics, as well as many behavioral, fMRI, TMS, and LFP studies. In essence, it is time to stop amassing binary results and start using single-trial analyses to build models of visual perception

Fractals in the Nervous System: conceptual Implications for Theoretical Neuroscience

This essay is presented with two principal objectives in mind: first, to document the prevalence of fractals at all levels of the nervous system, giving credence to the notion of their functional relevance; and second, to draw attention to the as yet still unresolved issues of the detailed relationships among power law scaling, self-similarity, and self-organized criticality. As regards criticality, I will document that it has become a pivotal reference point in Neurodynamics. Furthermore, I will emphasize the not yet fully appreciated significance of allometric control processes. For dynamic fractals, I will assemble reasons for attributing to them the capacity to adapt task execution to contextual changes across a range of scales. The final Section consists of general reflections on the implications of the reviewed data, and identifies what appear to be issues of fundamental importance for future research in the rapidly evolving topic of this review

A Cross-cohort Description of Young People’s Housing Experience in Britain over 30 Years: An Application of Sequence Analysis

Methods. Sequence Analysis supported by Event History Analysis. Key Findings. Despite only 12 years separating both cohorts, the younger 1970 cohort exhibited very different patterns of housing including a slower progression out of the parental home and into stable tenure, and an increased reliance on privately rented housing. Returns to the parental home occurred across the twenties and into the thirties in both cohorts, although occurred more frequently and were more concentrated among certain groups in the 1970 cohort compared to the 1958 cohort. Although fewer cohort members in the 1970 cohort experienced social housing, and did so at a later age, social housing was also associated with greater tenure immobility in this younger cohort. Conclusions. The housing experiences of the younger cohort became associated with more unstable tenure (privately rented housing) for the majority. Leaving the parental home was observed to be a process, as opposed to a one-off event, and several returns to the parental home were documented, more so for the 1970 cohort. These findings are not unrelated, and in the current environment of rising house prices, collapses in the (youth) labour market and rising costs of higher education, are likely to increase in prevalence across subsequent cohorts