A unified framework for solving a general class of conditional and robust set-membership estimation problems

In this paper we present a unified framework for solving a general class of problems arising in the context of set-membership estimation/identification theory. More precisely, the paper aims at providing an original approach for the computation of optimal conditional and robust projection estimates in a nonlinear estimation setting where the operator relating the data and the parameter to be estimated is assumed to be a generic multivariate polynomial function and the uncertainties affecting the data are assumed to belong to semialgebraic sets. By noticing that the computation of both the conditional and the robust projection optimal estimators requires the solution to min-max optimization problems that share the same structure, we propose a unified two-stage approach based on semidefinite-relaxation techniques for solving such estimation problems. The key idea of the proposed procedure is to recognize that the optimal functional of the inner optimization problems can be approximated to any desired precision by a multivariate polynomial function by suitably exploiting recently proposed results in the field of parametric optimization. Two simulation examples are reported to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.Comment: Accpeted for publication in the IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control (2014

Probability-guaranteed set-membership state estimation for polynomially uncertain linear time-invariant systems

2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting /republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other worksConventional deterministic set-membership (SM) estimation is limited to unknown-but-bounded uncertainties. In order to exploit distributional information of probabilistic uncertainties, a probability-guaranteed SM state estimation approach is proposed for uncertain linear time-invariant systems. This approach takes into account polynomial dependence on probabilistic uncertain parameters as well as additive stochastic noises. The purpose is to compute, at each time instant, a bounded set that contains the actual state with a guaranteed probability. The proposed approach relies on the extended form of an observer representation over a sliding window. For the offline observer synthesis, a polynomial-chaos-based method is proposed to minimize the averaged H2 estimation performance with respect to probabilistic uncertain parameters. It explicitly accounts for the polynomial uncertainty structure, whilst most literature relies on conservative affine or polytopic overbounding. Online state estimation restructures the extended observer form, and constructs a Gaussian mixture model to approximate the state distribution. This enables computationally efficient ellipsoidal calculus to derive SM estimates with a predefined confidence level. The proposed approach preserves time invariance of the uncertain parameters and fully exploits the polynomial uncertainty structure, to achieve tighter SM bounds. This improvement is illustrated by a numerical example with a comparison to a deterministic zonotopic method.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Duplicate Detection in Probabilistic Data

Collected data often contains uncertainties. Probabilistic databases have been proposed to manage uncertain data. To combine data from multiple autonomous probabilistic databases, an integration of probabilistic data has to be performed. Until now, however, data integration approaches have focused on the integration of certain source data (relational or XML). There is no work on the integration of uncertain (esp. probabilistic) source data so far. In this paper, we present a first step towards a concise consolidation of probabilistic data. We focus on duplicate detection as a representative and essential step in an integration process. We present techniques for identifying multiple probabilistic representations of the same real-world entities. Furthermore, for increasing the efficiency of the duplicate detection process we introduce search space reduction methods adapted to probabilistic data

Problem-driven scenario generation: an analytical approach for stochastic programs with tail risk measure

Scenario generation is the construction of a discrete random vector to represent parameters of uncertain values in a stochastic program. Most approaches to scenario generation are distribution-driven, that is, they attempt to construct a random vector which captures well in a probabilistic sense the uncertainty. On the other hand, a problem-driven approach may be able to exploit the structure of a problem to provide a more concise representation of the uncertainty. In this paper we propose an analytic approach to problem-driven scenario generation. This approach applies to stochastic programs where a tail risk measure, such as conditional value-at-risk, is applied to a loss function. Since tail risk measures only depend on the upper tail of a distribution, standard methods of scenario generation, which typically spread their scenarios evenly across the support of the random vector, struggle to adequately represent tail risk. Our scenario generation approach works by targeting the construction of scenarios in areas of the distribution corresponding to the tails of the loss distributions. We provide conditions under which our approach is consistent with sampling, and as proof-of-concept demonstrate how our approach could be applied to two classes of problem, namely network design and portfolio selection. Numerical tests on the portfolio selection problem demonstrate that our approach yields better and more stable solutions compared to standard Monte Carlo sampling