Hybrid SAT-Based Consistency Checking Algorithms for Simple Temporal Networks with Decisions

A Simple Temporal Network (STN) consists of time points modeling temporal events and constraints modeling the minimal and maximal temporal distance between them. A Simple Temporal Network with Decisions (STND) extends an STN by adding decision time points to model temporal plans with decisions. A decision time point is a special kind of time point that once executed allows for deciding a truth value for an associated Boolean proposition. Furthermore, STNDs label time points and constraints by conjunctions of literals saying for which scenarios (i.e., complete truth value assignments to the propositions) they are relevant. Thus, an STND models a family of STNs each obtained as a projection of the initial STND onto a scenario. An STND is consistent if there exists a consistent scenario (i.e., a scenario such that the corresponding STN projection is consistent). Recently, a hybrid SAT-based consistency checking algorithm (HSCC) was proposed to check the consistency of an STND. Unfortunately, that approach lacks experimental evaluation and does not allow for the synthesis of all consistent scenarios. In this paper, we propose an incremental HSCC algorithm for STNDs that (i) is faster than the previous one and (ii) allows for the synthesis of all consistent scenarios and related early execution schedules (offline temporal planning). Then, we carry out an experimental evaluation with KAPPA, a tool that we developed for STNDs. Finally, we prove that STNDs and disjunctive temporal networks (DTNs) are equivalent

Spatiotemporal Neurodynamics Underlying Internally and Externally Driven Temporal Prediction: A High Spatial Resolution ERP Study

Temporal prediction (TP) is a flexible and dynamic cognitive ability. Depending on the internal or external nature of information exploited to generate TP, distinct cognitive and brain mechanisms are engaged with the same final goal of reducing uncertainty about the future. In this study, we investigated the specific brain mechanisms involved in internally and externally driven TP. To this end, we employed an experimental paradigm purposely designed to elicit and compare externally and internally driven TP and a combined approach based on the application of a distributed source reconstruction modeling on a high spatial resolution electrophysiological data array. Specific spatiotemporal ERP signatures were identified, with significant modulation of contingent negative variation and frontal late sustained positivity in external and internal TP contexts, respectively. These different electrophysiological patterns were supported by the engagement of distinct neural networks, including a left sensorimotor and a prefrontal circuit for externally and internally driven TP, respectively

Potentials and Limits of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in the Assessment of Climate Change Adaptation Policies

Bayesian networks (BNs) have been increasingly applied to support management and decision-making processes under conditions of environmental variability and uncertainty, providing logical and holistic reasoning in complex systems since they succinctly and effectively translate causal assertions between variables into patterns of probabilistic dependence. Through a theoretical assessment of the features and the statistical rationale of BNs, and a review of specific applications to ecological modelling, natural resource management, and climate change policy issues, the present paper analyses the effectiveness of the BN model as a synthesis framework, which would allow the user to manage the uncertainty characterising the definition and implementation of climate change adaptation policies. The review will let emerge the potentials of the model to characterise, incorporate and communicate the uncertainty, with the aim to provide an efficient support to an informed and transparent decision making process. The possible drawbacks arising from the implementation of BNs are also analysed, providing potential solutions to overcome them.Adaptation to Climate Change, Bayesian Network, Uncertainty