Integrating functional diversity, food web processes, and biogeochemical carbon fluxes into a conceptual approach for modeling the upper ocean in a high-CO2 world

Marine food webs influence climate by channeling carbon below the permanent pycnocline, where it can be sequestered. Because most of the organic matter exported from the euphotic zone is remineralized within the "upper ocean" (i.e., the water column above the depth of sequestration), the resulting CO2 would potentially return to the atmosphere on decadal timescales. Thus ocean-climate models must consider the cycling of carbon within and from the upper ocean down to the depth of sequestration, instead of only to the base of the euphotic zone. Climate-related changes in the upper ocean will influence the diversity and functioning of plankton functional types. In order to predict the interactions between the changing climate and the ocean's biology, relevant models must take into account the roles of functional biodiversity and pelagic ecosystem functioning in determining the biogeochemical fluxes of carbon. We propose the development of a class of models that consider the interactions, in the upper ocean, of functional types of plankton organisms (e.g., phytoplankton, heterotrophic bacteria, microzooplankton, large zooplankton, and microphagous macrozooplankton), food web processes that affect organic matter (e.g., synthesis, transformation, and remineralization), and biogeochemical carbon fluxes (e.g., photosynthesis, calcification, respiration, and deep transfer). Herein we develop a framework for this class of models, and we use it to make preliminary predictions for the upper ocean in a high-CO2 world, without and with iron fertilization. Finally, we suggest a general approach for implementing our proposed class of models

Plankton functional group models – An assessment

This Discussant’s Report provides a summary of the discussions that followed presentation of the approaches and ideas described in Thingstad et al. (this volume). The discussions, which addressed aspects of conceptual understanding and parameterization that are relevant to development of ecosystem models capable of emergent behavior at a range of scales, the benefits of functional group modeling, and some of the limitations of this approach, provide insights that are relevant to setting directions for future research efforts. One important point emerging from the discussions was that reconciling the requirements of simplicity versus complexity with the desire to obtain predictive capability is an important area where biogeochemical and ecosystem models can be improved

Karl Pearson's Theoretical Errors and the Advances They Inspired

Karl Pearson played an enormous role in determining the content and organization of statistical research in his day, through his research, his teaching, his establishment of laboratories, and his initiation of a vast publishing program. His technical contributions had initially and continue today to have a profound impact upon the work of both applied and theoretical statisticians, partly through their inadequately acknowledged influence upon Ronald A. Fisher. Particular attention is drawn to two of Pearson's major errors that nonetheless have left a positive and lasting impression upon the statistical world.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-STS256 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Spatial Dynamic Modeling and Urban Land Use Transformation:

Assessing the economic impacts of urban land use transformation has become complex and acrimonious. Although community planners are beginning to comprehend the economic trade-offs inherent in transforming the urban fringe, they find it increasingly difficult to analyze and assess the trade-offs expediently and in ways that can influence local decisionmaking. New and sophisticated spatial modeling techniques are now being applied to urban systems that can quickly assess the probable spatial outcomes of given communal policies. Applying an economic impact assessment to the probable spatial patterns can provide to planners the tools needed to quickly assess scenarios for policy formation that will ultimately help inform decision makers. This paper focuses on the theoretical underpinnings and practical application of an economic impact analysis submodel developed within the Land use Evolution and Impact Assessment Modeling (LEAM) environment. The conceptual framework of LEAM is described, followed by an application of the model to the assessment of the cost of urban sprawl in Kane County, Illinois. The results show the effectiveness of spatially explicit modeling from a theoretical and a practical point of view. The agent-based approach of spatial dynamic modeling with a high spatial resolution allows for discerning the macro-level implications of micro-level behaviors. These phenomena are highlighted in the economic submodel in the discussion of the implications of land use change decisions on individual and communal costs; low-density development patterns favoring individual behaviors at the expense of the broader community.

A Survey of Languages for Specifying Dynamics: A Knowledge Engineering Perspective

A number of formal specification languages for knowledge-based systems has been developed. Characteristics for knowledge-based systems are a complex knowledge base and an inference engine which uses this knowledge to solve a given problem. Specification languages for knowledge-based systems have to cover both aspects. They have to provide the means to specify a complex and large amount of knowledge and they have to provide the means to specify the dynamic reasoning behavior of a knowledge-based system. We focus on the second aspect. For this purpose, we survey existing approaches for specifying dynamic behavior in related areas of research. In fact, we have taken approaches for the specification of information systems (Language for Conceptual Modeling and TROLL), approaches for the specification of database updates and logic programming (Transaction Logic and Dynamic Database Logic) and the generic specification framework of abstract state machine

THE FORMAL LOGIC OF TESTING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN MEAT DEMAND: A METHODOLOGICAL ANALYSIS

In the past two decades, the profession has expended valuable resources testing structural change in meat demand with mixed results. Overlooked to date is a fundamental methodological problem that transcends all of the methods of testing for structural change. In this study, a formal logic framework is utilized in which methodological problems associated with any hypothesis test can be analyzed. Within this framework, it is proven that there is no valid test of any single hypothesis, including structural change. Because of this result, additional criteria from the methodology literature are then used to evaluate the literature on structural change in meat demand.logic, meat demand, methodology, structural change, Demand and Price Analysis,