155,465 research outputs found
Ensemble Kalman methods for high-dimensional hierarchical dynamic space-time models
We propose a new class of filtering and smoothing methods for inference in
high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, spatio-temporal state-space models.
The main idea is to combine the ensemble Kalman filter and smoother, developed
in the geophysics literature, with state-space algorithms from the statistics
literature. Our algorithms address a variety of estimation scenarios, including
on-line and off-line state and parameter estimation. We take a Bayesian
perspective, for which the goal is to generate samples from the joint posterior
distribution of states and parameters. The key benefit of our approach is the
use of ensemble Kalman methods for dimension reduction, which allows inference
for high-dimensional state vectors. We compare our methods to existing ones,
including ensemble Kalman filters, particle filters, and particle MCMC. Using a
real data example of cloud motion and data simulated under a number of
nonlinear and non-Gaussian scenarios, we show that our approaches outperform
these existing methods
Optimal low-rank approximations of Bayesian linear inverse problems
In the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, data are often informative,
relative to the prior, only on a low-dimensional subspace of the parameter
space. Significant computational savings can be achieved by using this subspace
to characterize and approximate the posterior distribution of the parameters.
We first investigate approximation of the posterior covariance matrix as a
low-rank update of the prior covariance matrix. We prove optimality of a
particular update, based on the leading eigendirections of the matrix pencil
defined by the Hessian of the negative log-likelihood and the prior precision,
for a broad class of loss functions. This class includes the F\"{o}rstner
metric for symmetric positive definite matrices, as well as the
Kullback-Leibler divergence and the Hellinger distance between the associated
distributions. We also propose two fast approximations of the posterior mean
and prove their optimality with respect to a weighted Bayes risk under
squared-error loss. These approximations are deployed in an offline-online
manner, where a more costly but data-independent offline calculation is
followed by fast online evaluations. As a result, these approximations are
particularly useful when repeated posterior mean evaluations are required for
multiple data sets. We demonstrate our theoretical results with several
numerical examples, including high-dimensional X-ray tomography and an inverse
heat conduction problem. In both of these examples, the intrinsic
low-dimensional structure of the inference problem can be exploited while
producing results that are essentially indistinguishable from solutions
computed in the full space
Filtering and Smoothing with Score-Driven Models
We propose a methodology for filtering, smoothing and assessing parameter and
filtering uncertainty in misspecified score-driven models. Our technique is
based on a general representation of the well-known Kalman filter and smoother
recursions for linear Gaussian models in terms of the score of the conditional
log-likelihood. We prove that, when data are generated by a nonlinear
non-Gaussian state-space model, the proposed methodology results from a
first-order expansion of the true observation density around the optimal
filter. The error made by such approximation is assessed analytically. As shown
in extensive Monte Carlo analyses, our methodology performs very similarly to
exact simulation-based methods, while remaining computationally extremely
simple. We illustrate empirically the advantages in employing score-driven
models as misspecified filters rather than purely predictive processes.Comment: 33 pages, 5 figures, 6 table
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