Network Traffic Time Series Performance Analysis Using Statistical Methods

This paper presents an approach for a network traffic characterization by using statistical techniques. These techniques are obtained using the decomposition, winter’s exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). In this paper, decomposition and winter’s exponential smoothing techniques were used additive and multiplicative model. Then, ARIMA based-on Box-Jenkins methodology. The results of ARIMA (1,0,2) was shown the best model that can be used to the internet network traffic forecasting. 

Road Freight Transport Forecasting: A Fuzzy Monte-Carlo Simulation-Based Model Selection Approach

As important as the classical approaches such as Akaikeꞌs AIC information and Bayesian BIC criterion in model-selection mechanism are, they have limitations. As an alternative, a novel modeling design encompasses a two-stage approach that integrates Fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulations (MCSs). In the first stage, an entire family of ARIMA model candidates with the corresponding information-based, residual-based, and statistical criteria is identified. In the second stage, the Mamdani fuzzy model (MFM) is used to uncover interrelationships hidden among previously obtained modelsꞌ criteria. To access the best forecasting model, the MCSs are also used for different settings of weights loaded on the fuzzy rules. The obtained model is developed to predict the road freight transport in Slovenia in the context of choosing the most appropriate electronic toll system. Results show that the mechanism works well when searching for the best model that provides a well-fit to the real data

Flexible and Intelligent Learning Architectures for SOS (FILA-SoS)

Multi-faceted systems of the future will entail complex logic and reasoning with many levels of reasoning in intricate arrangement. The organization of these systems involves a web of connections and demonstrates self-driven adaptability. They are designed for autonomy and may exhibit emergent behavior that can be visualized. Our quest continues to handle complexities, design and operate these systems. The challenge in Complex Adaptive Systems design is to design an organized complexity that will allow a system to achieve its goals. This report attempts to push the boundaries of research in complexity, by identifying challenges and opportunities. Complex adaptive system-of-systems (CASoS) approach is developed to handle this huge uncertainty in socio-technical systems