Probabilistic Inference Using Partitioned Bayesian Networks:Introducing a Compositional Framework

Probability theory offers an intuitive and formally sound way to reason in situations that involve uncertainty. The automation of probabilistic reasoning has many applications such as predicting future events or prognostics, providing decision support, action planning under uncertainty, dealing with multiple uncertain measurements, making a diagnosis, and so forth. Bayesian networks in particular have been used to represent probability distributions that model the various applications of uncertainty reasoning. However, present-day automated reasoning approaches involving uncertainty struggle when models increase in size and complexity to fit real-world applications.In this thesis, we explore and extend a state-of-the-art automated reasoning method, called inference by Weighted Model Counting (WMC), when applied to increasingly complex Bayesian network models. WMC is comprised of two distinct phases: compilation and inference. The computational cost of compilation has limited the applicability of WMC. To overcome this limitation we have proposed theoretical and practical solutions that have been tested extensively in empirical studies using real-world Bayesian network models.We have proposed a weighted variant of OBDDs, called Weighted Positive Binary Decision Diagrams (WPBDD), which in turn is based on the new notion of positive Shannon decomposition. WPBDDs are particularly well suited to represent discrete probabilistic models. The conciseness of WPBDDs leads to a reduction in the cost of probabilistic inference.We have introduced Compositional Weighted Model Counting (CWMC), a language-agnostic framework for probabilistic inference that partitions a Bayesian network into subproblems. These subproblems are then compiled and subsequently composed in order to perform inference. This approach significantly reduces the cost of compilation, yet increases the cost of inference. The best results are obtained by seeking a partitioning that allows compilation to (barely) become feasible, but no more, as compilation cost can be amortized over multiple inference queries.Theoretical concepts have been implemented in a readily available open-source tool called ParaGnosis. Further implementational improvements have been found through parallelism, by exploiting independencies that are introduced by CWMC. The proposed methods combined push the boundaries of WMC, allowing this state-of-the-art method to be used on much larger models than before

On the Relationship between Sum-Product Networks and Bayesian Networks

In this paper, we establish some theoretical connections between Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and Bayesian Networks (BNs). We prove that every SPN can be converted into a BN in linear time and space in terms of the network size. The key insight is to use Algebraic Decision Diagrams (ADDs) to compactly represent the local conditional probability distributions at each node in the resulting BN by exploiting context-specific independence (CSI). The generated BN has a simple directed bipartite graphical structure. We show that by applying the Variable Elimination algorithm (VE) to the generated BN with ADD representations, we can recover the original SPN where the SPN can be viewed as a history record or caching of the VE inference process. To help state the proof clearly, we introduce the notion of {\em normal} SPN and present a theoretical analysis of the consistency and decomposability properties. We conclude the paper with some discussion of the implications of the proof and establish a connection between the depth of an SPN and a lower bound of the tree-width of its corresponding BN.Comment: Full version of the same paper to appear at ICML-201

Multi-core Decision Diagrams

Decision diagrams are fundamental data structures that revolutionized fields such as model checking, automated reasoning and decision processes. As performance gains in the current era mostly come from parallel processing, an ongoing challenge is to develop data structures and algorithms for modern multicore architectures. This chapter describes the parallelization of decision diagram operations as implemented in the parallel decision diagram package Sylvan, which allows sequential algorithms that use decision diagrams to exploit the power of multi-core machines

Integration of Logic and Probability in Terminological and Inductive Reasoning

This thesis deals with Statistical Relational Learning (SRL), a research area combining principles and ideas from three important subfields of Artificial Intelligence: machine learn- ing, knowledge representation and reasoning on uncertainty. Machine learning is the study of systems that improve their behavior over time with experience; the learning process typi- cally involves a search through various generalizations of the examples, in order to discover regularities or classification rules. A wide variety of machine learning techniques have been developed in the past fifty years, most of which used propositional logic as a (limited) represen- tation language. Recently, more expressive knowledge representations have been considered, to cope with a variable number of entities as well as the relationships that hold amongst them. These representations are mostly based on logic that, however, has limitations when reason- ing on uncertain domains. These limitations have been lifted allowing a multitude of different formalisms combining probabilistic reasoning with logics, databases or logic programming, where probability theory provides a formal basis for reasoning on uncertainty. In this thesis we consider in particular the proposals for integrating probability in Logic Programming, since the resulting probabilistic logic programming languages present very in- teresting computational properties. In Probabilistic Logic Programming, the so-called "dis- tribution semantics" has gained a wide popularity. This semantics was introduced for the PRISM language (1995) but is shared by many other languages: Independent Choice Logic, Stochastic Logic Programs, CP-logic, ProbLog and Logic Programs with Annotated Disjunc- tions (LPADs). A program in one of these languages defines a probability distribution over normal logic programs called worlds. This distribution is then extended to queries and the probability of a query is obtained by marginalizing the joint distribution of the query and the programs. The languages following the distribution semantics differ in the way they define the distribution over logic programs. The first part of this dissertation presents techniques for learning probabilistic logic pro- grams under the distribution semantics. Two problems are considered: parameter learning and structure learning, that is, the problems of inferring values for the parameters or both the structure and the parameters of the program from data. This work contributes an algorithm for parameter learning, EMBLEM, and two algorithms for structure learning (SLIPCASE and SLIPCOVER) of probabilistic logic programs (in particular LPADs). EMBLEM is based on the Expectation Maximization approach and computes the expectations directly on the Binary De- cision Diagrams that are built for inference. SLIPCASE performs a beam search in the space of LPADs while SLIPCOVER performs a beam search in the space of probabilistic clauses and a greedy search in the space of LPADs, improving SLIPCASE performance. All learning approaches have been evaluated in several relational real-world domains. The second part of the thesis concerns the field of Probabilistic Description Logics, where we consider a logical framework suitable for the Semantic Web. Description Logics (DL) are a family of formalisms for representing knowledge. Research in the field of knowledge repre- sentation and reasoning is usually focused on methods for providing high-level descriptions of the world that can be effectively used to build intelligent applications. Description Logics have been especially effective as the representation language for for- mal ontologies. Ontologies model a domain with the definition of concepts and their properties and relations. Ontologies are the structural frameworks for organizing information and are used in artificial intelligence, the Semantic Web, systems engineering, software engineering, biomedical informatics, etc. They should also allow to ask questions about the concepts and in- stances described, through inference procedures. Recently, the issue of representing uncertain information in these domains has led to probabilistic extensions of DLs. The contribution of this dissertation is twofold: (1) a new semantics for the Description Logic SHOIN(D) , based on the distribution semantics for probabilistic logic programs, which embeds probability; (2) a probabilistic reasoner for computing the probability of queries from uncertain knowledge bases following this semantics. The explanations of queries are encoded in Binary Decision Diagrams, with the same technique employed in the learning systems de- veloped for LPADs. This approach has been evaluated on a real-world probabilistic ontology

Probabilistic Programming Concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been developed since more than 20 years

Generalising weighted model counting

Given a formula in propositional or (finite-domain) first-order logic and some non-negative weights, weighted model counting (WMC) is a function problem that asks to compute the sum of the weights of the models of the formula. Originally used as a flexible way of performing probabilistic inference on graphical models, WMC has found many applications across artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and other domains. Areas of AI that rely on WMC include explainable AI, neural-symbolic AI, probabilistic programming, and statistical relational AI. WMC also has applications in bioinformatics, data mining, natural language processing, prognostics, and robotics. In this work, we are interested in revisiting the foundations of WMC and considering generalisations of some of the key definitions in the interest of conceptual clarity and practical efficiency. We begin by developing a measure-theoretic perspective on WMC, which suggests a new and more general way of defining the weights of an instance. This new representation can be as succinct as standard WMC but can also expand as needed to represent less-structured probability distributions. We demonstrate the performance benefits of the new format by developing a novel WMC encoding for Bayesian networks. We then show how existing WMC encodings for Bayesian networks can be transformed into this more general format and what conditions ensure that the transformation is correct (i.e., preserves the answer). Combining the strengths of the more flexible representation with the tricks used in existing encodings yields further efficiency improvements in Bayesian network probabilistic inference. Next, we turn our attention to the first-order setting. Here, we argue that the capabilities of practical model counting algorithms are severely limited by their inability to perform arbitrary recursive computations. To enable arbitrary recursion, we relax the restrictions that typically accompany domain recursion and generalise circuits (used to express a solution to a model counting problem) to graphs that are allowed to have cycles. These improvements enable us to find efficient solutions to counting fundamental structures such as injections and bijections that were previously unsolvable by any available algorithm. The second strand of this work is concerned with synthetic data generation. Testing algorithms across a wide range of problem instances is crucial to ensure the validity of any claim about one algorithm’s superiority over another. However, benchmarks are often limited and fail to reveal differences among the algorithms. First, we show how random instances of probabilistic logic programs (that typically use WMC algorithms for inference) can be generated using constraint programming. We also introduce a new constraint to control the independence structure of the underlying probability distribution and provide a combinatorial argument for the correctness of the constraint model. This model allows us to, for the first time, experimentally investigate inference algorithms on more than just a handful of instances. Second, we introduce a random model for WMC instances with a parameter that influences primal treewidth—the parameter most commonly used to characterise the difficulty of an instance. We show that the easy-hard-easy pattern with respect to clause density is different for algorithms based on dynamic programming and algebraic decision diagrams than for all other solvers. We also demonstrate that all WMC algorithms scale exponentially with respect to primal treewidth, although at differing rates

ICAPS 2012. Proceedings of the third Workshop on the International Planning Competition

22nd International Conference on Automated Planning and Scheduling. June 25-29, 2012, Atibaia, Sao Paulo (Brazil). Proceedings of the 3rd the International Planning CompetitionThe Academic Advising Planning Domain / Joshua T. Guerin, Josiah P. Hanna, Libby Ferland, Nicholas Mattei, and Judy Goldsmith. -- Leveraging Classical Planners through Translations / Ronen I. Brafman, Guy Shani, and Ran Taig. -- Advances in BDD Search: Filtering, Partitioning, and Bidirectionally Blind / Stefan Edelkamp, Peter Kissmann, and Álvaro Torralba. -- A Multi-Agent Extension of PDDL3.1 / Daniel L. Kovacs. -- Mining IPC-2011 Results / Isabel Cenamor, Tomás de la Rosa, and Fernando Fernández. -- How Good is the Performance of the Best Portfolio in IPC-2011? / Sergio Nuñez, Daniel Borrajo, and Carlos Linares López. -- “Type Problem in Domain Description!” or, Outsiders’ Suggestions for PDDL Improvement / Robert P. Goldman and Peter KellerEn prens

Probabilistic (logic) programming concepts

A multitude of different probabilistic programming languages exists today, all extending a traditional programming language with primitives to support modeling of complex, structured probability distributions. Each of these languages employs its own probabilistic primitives, and comes with a particular syntax, semantics and inference procedure. This makes it hard to understand the underlying programming concepts and appreciate the differences between the different languages. To obtain a better understanding of probabilistic programming, we identify a number of core programming concepts underlying the primitives used by various probabilistic languages, discuss the execution mechanisms that they require and use these to position and survey state-of-the-art probabilistic languages and their implementation. While doing so, we focus on probabilistic extensions of logic programming languages such as Prolog, which have been considered for over 20 years