Decision support systems for large dam planning and operation in Africa

Decision support systems/ Dams/ Planning/ Operations/ Social impact/ Environmental effects

Advances in Theoretical and Computational Energy Optimization Processes

Industry, construction and transport are the three sectors that traditionally lead to the highest energy requirements. This is why, over the past few years, all the involved stakeholders have widely expressed the necessity to introduce a new approach to the analysis and management of those energy processes characterizing the aforementioned sectors. The objective is to guide production and energy processes to an approach aimed at energy savings and a decrease in environmental impact. Indeed, all of the ecosystems are stressed by obsolete production schemes deriving from an unsustainable paradigm of constant growth and related to the hypothesis of an environment able to absorb and accept all of the anthropogenic changes

TOWARDS IMPROVED HYDROLOGIC LAND SURFACE MODELLING: ENHANCED MODEL IDENTIFICATION AND INTEGRATION OF WATER MANAGEMENT

Large-scale hydrological models are essential tools for addressing emerging water security challenges. They enable us to understand and predict changes in water cycle at river-basin, continental, and global scales. This thesis aimed to improve ‘land surface models’ for large-scale hydrological modelling applications. Specifically, the research contributions were made across four fronts: (1) improving the conventional procedure for parameter identification of hydrological processes by using new sources of remotely-sensed data in addition to streamflow data within a multi-objective optimization and sensitivity analysis framework, (2) developing and integrating an efficient parameterization scheme for the representation of reservoirs into the land surface model for realistic representation of downstream flows, which can further feedback to land surface and atmospheric models, (3) demonstrating how precipitation uncertainty from multiple high-resolution precipitation products influences the performance of a land-surface based hydrological model, and (4) developing an enhanced and comprehensive large-scale hydrologic model for a complex and heavily regulated watershed. The analyses and results of this thesis illuminated important issues and their solutions in large-scale hydrological modelling. First, the multi-objective optimization and sensitivity analysis approach using multiple state and flux variables and performance criteria enables robust model parameterization and lessens issues around parameter equifinality in the highly-parameterized land surface models. Second, the dynamic parameterization of reservoir operation, based on multiple storage zones and reservoir release targets, improves the simulation of reservoir storage dynamics and downstream release, and subsequently, significantly improves the fidelity of land surface models when modeling managed basins. Third, there is a critical need for a rigorous evaluation of precipitation datasets widely used for forcing land surface models. The datasets investigated here showed considerable discrepancies, bringing their utility for land surface modelling into question. Fourth, effective parameterization and calibration of land surface models is critically important, particularly in large, complex, and highly-regulated basins

Digitalization and real-time control to mitigate environmental impacts along rivers: Focus on artificial barriers, hydropower systems and European priorities

Hydropower globally represents the main source of renewable energy, and provides several benefits, e.g., water storage and flexibility; on the other hand, it may cause significant impacts on the environment. Hence sustainable hydropower needs to achieve a balance between electricity generation, impacts on ecosystems and benefits on society, supporting the achievement of the Green Deal targets. The implementation of digital, information, communication and control (DICC) technologies is emerging as an effective strategy to support such a trade-off, especially in the European Union (EU), fostering both the green and the digital transitions. In this study, we show how DICC can foster the environmental integration of hydropower into the Earth spheres, with focus on the hydrosphere (e.g., on water quality and quantity, hydropeaking mitigation, environmental flow control), biosphere (e.g., improvement of riparian vegetation, fish habitat and migration), atmosphere (reduction of methane emissions and evaporation from reservoirs), lithosphere (better sediment management, reduction of seepages), and on the anthroposphere (e.g., reduction of pollution associated to combined sewer overflows, chemicals, plastics and microplastics). With reference to the abovementioned Earth spheres, the main DICC applications, case studies, challenges, Technology Readiness Level (TRL), benefits and limitations, and transversal benefits for energy generation and predictive Operation and Maintenance (O&M), are discussed. The priorities for the European Union are highlighted. Although the paper focuses primarly on hydropower, analogous considerations are valid for any artificial barrier, water reservoir and civil structure which interferes with freshwater systems.Digitalization and real-time control to mitigate environmental impacts along rivers: Focus on artificial barriers, hydropower systems and European prioritiespublishedVersio

Advances in Theoretical and Computational Energy Optimization Processes

The paradigm in the design of all human activity that requires energy for its development must change from the past. We must change the processes of product manufacturing and functional services. This is necessary in order to mitigate the ecological footprint of man on the Earth, which cannot be considered as a resource with infinite capacities. To do this, every single process must be analyzed and modified, with the aim of decarbonising each production sector. This collection of articles has been assembled to provide ideas and new broad-spectrum contributions for these purposes

Improved water and land management in the Ethiopian highlands: its impact on downstream stakeholders dependent on the Blue Nile; Intermediate Results Dissemination Workshop February 5-6, 2009, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

River basin management, Watershed management, Farming systems, Water balance, Reservoirs, Water supply, Irrigation requirements, Irrigation programs, Simulation models, Sedimentation, Rainfall-Runoff relationships, Erosion, Soil water, Water balance, Soil conservation, Institutions, Organizations, Policy, Water governance, International waters, Institutional and Behavioral Economics, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Analysis of the impact of demand response on the Norwegian energy system

publishedVersio

Adaptation pathways to reconcile hydropower generation and aquatic ecosystems restoration

The growing demands for water, food and energy, in addition to the need to protect ecosystems, pose significant challenges to water management and the operation of water systems. In hydropower-dominated basins, where reservoirs capture flow variability for energy generation, the modification of the natural flow regime disrupts the natural equilibrium of aquatic ecosystems. Migratory fish species and the associated ecosystem services are particularly vulnerable as the migration and recruitment success relies on the synchronization between the hydrologic flow regime and the reproductive cycle. While there is a consensus on the importance of restoring impacted ecosystems in balance with multiple uses, the current water governance framework lacks a comprehensive understanding of the tradeoffs involved and mechanisms for ensuring the equitable distribution of the adaptation costs among users. The present study brings a contribution to the field by proposing solutions to improve the water governance of river basins, combining the (1) identification of flow-ecological relationships by measuring the response of multiple options of flow regime restoration with a clear ecosystem indicator, (2) incorporation of the flow-ecological relationships and hydroclimatic conditions into the operation decisions of hydropower systems to create dynamic environmental flow solutions (termed Dynamic Adaptive Environmental flows – DAE-flows) with better long-term performance, (3) calculation of the reoperation trade-offs between alternative levels of environmental flow regime restoration and (4) development of mechanisms to share the adaptation costs among stakeholders. The electricity market is proposed as an institutional arrangement and financing mechanism to support the restoration of flow regimes in environmentally sensitive areas. The Upper Paraná River Basin, in Brazil, where consecutive hydropower impoundments have reduced the original floodplain along the last decades, is a recurrent example where reservoirs’ operation need to be reconciled with ecosystem functionality, which makes the basin an important study area. The findings of this dissertation indicate that it is possible to enhance the capacity of water systems to incorporate historically suppressed environmental water demands without imposing a hard constraint to economic uses. The consideration of the long-term effects of operation when designing operating strategies for multiple users leads to improved performance in both hydropower generation and meeting ecosystem demands. So, during severe droughts the water can still be reallocated to hydropower (as it is currently done) but at a lesser cost to the environment.As demandas crescentes por água, alimentos e energia, além da necessidade de proteger os ecossistemas, tornam a gestão dos recursos hídricos, bem como a operação de sistemas hídricos, uma tarefa desafiadora. Em bacias com aproveitamento hidrelétrico, a modificação do regime de vazões decorrente da operação dos reservatórios altera o equilíbrio natural dos ecossistemas aquáticos. Espécies migratórias de peixes e serviços ecossistêmicos associados ficam particularmente vulneráveis, uma vez que o sucesso da migração e recrutamento depende da sincronização entre o regime de vazão e o ciclo reprodutivo. Embora haja consenso sobre a importância de restaurar as demandas ecossistêmicas suprimidas e alcançar um equilíbrio que permita múltiplos usos, o atual quadro de governança carece de uma compreensão abrangente dos trade-offs envolvidos e dos mecanismos para garantir a distribuição equitativa dos custos de adaptação entre os usuários. O presente estudo contribui para o campo, propondo soluções para aprimorar a governança de bacias antropizadas, combinando (1) a identificação das relações vazão-ecológicas por meio da quantificação da resposta de múltiplas opções de restauração do regime de vazão por meio de um indicador de desempenho do ecossistema, (2) a incorporação dessas relações vazão-ecológicas juntamente com condições hidroclimáticas nas decisões operacionais de sistemas hidrelétricos (denominadas Vazões Ambientais Dinâmicas e Adaptativas - DAE-flows) para criar soluções dinâmicas de operação de reservatórios, (3) o cálculo dos trade-offs de reoperação de múltiplos níveis de restauração de regime de vazão ambiental e (4) o desenvolvimento de mecanismos para compartilhar os custos relacionados entre as partes interessadas. Nesse sentido, o mercado de eletricidade é proposto como arranjo institucional e mecanismo de financiamento para apoiar a restauração de regimes de vazão em áreas ambientalmente sensíveis. A Bacia Hidrográfica do Alto Paraná, Brasil, caracterizada como uma das mais represadas da América do Sul, com 65 usinas hidrelétricas integradas ao Sistema Integrado Nacional, é um exemplo recorrente da necessidade de reconciliação entre a geração de energia e a conservação de serviços ecossistêmicos, sendo utilizada como área de estudo. Os resultados indicam que podemos aumentar a capacidade dos sistemas hídricos para incorporar demandas ambientais historicamente suprimidas sem impor uma restrição rígida aos usos econômicos. Ao considerar os efeitos de longo prazo da operação ao projetar estratégias de operação para múltiplos usuários, obtemos um desempenho aprimorado tanto na geração de energia hidrelétrica quanto no atendimento às demandas do ecossistema. Assim, durante períodos de seca severa, a água ainda pode ser realocada para a produção de energia hidrelétrica (como é feito atualmente), porém com menor impacto ambiental

Water and benefit sharing in transboundary river basins

Le partage équitable des bénéfices dans les bassins fluviaux transfrontaliers est nécessaire pour résoudre les conflits entre les pays riverains et atteindre un consensus sur les activités de développement et de gestion du bassin versant. Le partage des bénéfices doit être discuté collectivement par tous les pays riverains pour être perçu non seulement comme efficace, mais aussi équitable. La littérature actuelle décrit principalement ce que l’on entend par le partage des bénéfices d’un point de vue conceptuel. Les arrangements institutionnels pratiques qui assurent le bien-être économique maximal, ainsi que les méthodes développées en collaboration pour encourager le partage équitable des bénéfices, ne sont toutefois pas présentés. L’objectif global de ce projet de thèse est de développer un arrangement institutionnel, qui comprend à la fois des politiques de répartition de l’eau et des mécanismes de partage des bénéfices, afin d’améliorer la gestion des ressources en eau transfrontalières et d’encourager la coopération entre les pays riverains. La méthodologie étend l’approche traditionnelle, basée sur des stratégies d’allocation très limitées en allouant efficacement les ressources en eau et le partage équitable des bénéfices découlant de l’utilisation de l’eau. Cette thèse détaille l’arrangement institutionnel développé et, à travers trois activités distinctes, les principales composantes de l’arrangement sont analysés. Dans l’arrangement institutionnel, une autorité de bassin fluvial (RBA) est l’opérateur d’un système axé sur le marché, dans lequel les politiques d’allocation économiquement efficaces sont identifiées et imposées aux usagers de l’eau, qui doit payer pour l’eau qui leur est alloué. Ces frais sont collectés et redistribués, via une règle de partage spécifique au bassin fluvial, afin d’assurer l’équité entre les usagers de l’eau. Le bassin du Nil oriental est utilisé comme étude de cas pour illustrer l’approche. Il y a des secteurs hydroélectriques et agricoles répartis dans trois pays (Egypte, Soudan et Ethiopie) et une longue histoire de non-coopération dans ce bassin. La répartition actuelle de l’eau repose sur des accords bilatéraux de l’époque coloniale, qui désignent l’Egypte et le Soudan comme les seuls bénéficiaires des eaux du Nil. La coopération future est impérative dans ce bassin pour profiter du potentiel hydroélectrique en Ethiopie, et du potentiel de l’agriculture au Soudan, ainsi que pour atténuer, autant que possible, les effets du changement climatique. Les résultats montrent que la gestion coopérative du bassin du Nil oriental, et de son infrastructure, augmenterait considérablement les bénéfices économiques à l’échelle du bassin et entraiînerait une répartition de l’eau plus efficace. L’arrangement institutionnel garantit que l’eau est retirée ouù elle a la plus grande valeur et que les investissements en amont dans des projets à faible productivité sont découragés. Le plus haut niveau de coopération est effectuée en vertu d’une institution supranationale et toutes les parties doivent se mettre d’accord sur la définition de l’équité dans le le partage des bénéfices. L’imposition d’axiomes spécifiques sur la base de cette vision collaborative de l’équité se traduit par une solution unique pour la répartition des bénéfices économiques. Une règle de partage élaborée avec la participation des parties prenantes peut être plus acceptable parce que la définition de la règle n’est pas contestée, comme ce serait le cas si les règles existantes avaientété appliquées avec leurs propres définitions de l’équité. Enfin, les résultats globaux montrent que la réalisation de compromis entre l’efficacité et l’équité peut se produire lorsque ces deux principes de répartition de l’eau sont couplés afin de maximiser les avantages de l’utilisation de l’eau, puis de réaffecter ces d’une manière équitable.The equitable sharing of benefits in transboundary river basins is necessary to solve disputes among riparian countries and to reach a consensus on basin-wide development and management activities. Benefit-sharing arrangements must be collaboratively developed to be perceived not only as efficient, but also as equitable, and to be considered acceptable to all riparian countries. The current literature mainly describes what is meant by the term benefit sharing, in the context of transboundary river basins, and discusses this from a conceptual point of view. Practical, institutional arrangements that ensure maximum economic welfare, as well as collaboratively developed methods for encouraging the equitable sharing of benefits, are, however, not provided. The overall objective of this PhD project was to develop an institutional arrangement, that includes both water allocation policies and benefit-sharing mechanisms, to improve the sustainability of managing transboundary water resources and to encourage cooperation between riparian states. The methodology extends the traditional approach, which is based on highly constrained allocation policies, that merely complement existing management institutions, by efficiently allocating water resources and then equitably sharing the benefits derived from water use. This thesis details the institutional arrangement developed and, through three separate activities, the main components of the arrangement are analyzed. A river basin authority (RBA) is the operator of a market-based system, in which economically efficient allocation policies are identified and imposed on water users, who are charged for the water allocated to them. These charges are collected and redistributed, via a sharing rule specific to the river basin, to ensure equity among the water users. The Eastern Nile River Basin is used as the case study to illustrate the approach. There are important hydropower and agricultural sectors spread across three countries (Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia), and there is a long history of non-cooperation in this river basin. Current water allocation is based on colonial era bilateral agreements that designate Egypt and Sudan as the only beneficiaries of the Nile waters. Future cooperation is imperative, in this basin, to take advantage of hydropower potential in Ethiopia, and agriculture potential in Sudan, as well as to mitigate, as much as possible, the effects of climate change in the near future. Results reveal that the cooperative management of the Eastern Nile River Basin and its infrastructure would significantly increase the basin-wide economic benefits and lead to more efficient water allocation. The institutional arrangement ensures that water is withdrawn where it has the greatest value (efficient water allocation is established) and that upstream investments in low productivity projects are discouraged. The highest level of cooperation is effectuated through a supranational institution and all parties must agree on the definition of fairness in the sharing of benefits.The imposition of specific axioms, based on this agreedupon vision of fairness results in a unique solution for the distribution of economic benefits. A sharing rule developed with stakeholder input may be more acceptable because the definition of the rule is not in question, as would be the case if existing rules were applied with their inherent definitions of equity. Finally, overall results show that achieving trade-offs between efficiency and equity can occur when these two principles of water allocation are coupled to first maximize the benefits from water use and then reallocate these in an equitable manner