A new tool for the evaluation of the rehabilitation outcomes in older persons. a machine learning model to predict functional status 1 year ahead

Purpose To date, the assessment of disability in older people is obtained utilizing a Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA). However, it is often difficult to understand which areas of CGA are most predictive of the disability. The aim of this study is to evaluate the possibility to early predict—1year ahead—the disability level of a patient using machine leaning models. Methods Community-dwelling older people were enrolled in this study. CGA was made at baseline and at 1year follow-up. After collecting input/independent variables (i.e., age, gender, schooling followed, body mass index, information on smoking, polypharmacy, functional status, cognitive performance, depression, nutritional status), we performed two distinct Support Vector Machine models (SVMs) able to predict functional status 1year ahead. To validate the choice of the model, the results achieved with the SVMs were compared with the output produced by simple linear regression models. Results 218 patients (mean age = 78.01; SD = 7.85; male = 39%) were recruited. The combination of the two SVMs is able to achieve a higher prediction accuracy (exceeding 80% instances correctly classified vs 67% instances correctly classified by the combination of the two linear regression models). Furthermore, SVMs are able to classify both the three categories, self sufficiently, disability risk and disability, while linear regression model separates the population only in two groups (self-sufficiency and disability) without identifying the intermediate category (disability risk) which turns out to be the most critical one. Conclusions The development of such a model can contribute to the early detection of patients at risk of self-sufficiency loss

A critical assessment of imbalanced class distribution problem: the case of predicting freshmen student attrition

Predicting student attrition is an intriguing yet challenging problem for any academic institution. Class-imbalanced data is a common in the field of student retention, mainly because a lot of students register but fewer students drop out. Classification techniques for imbalanced dataset can yield deceivingly high prediction accuracy where the overall predictive accuracy is usually driven by the majority class at the expense of having very poor performance on the crucial minority class. In this study, we compared different data balancing techniques to improve the predictive accuracy in minority class while maintaining satisfactory overall classification performance. Specifically, we tested three balancing techniques—oversampling, under-sampling and synthetic minority over-sampling (SMOTE)—along with four popular classification methods—logistic regression, decision trees, neuron networks and support vector machines. We used a large and feature rich institutional student data (between the years 2005 and 2011) to assess the efficacy of both balancing techniques as well as prediction methods. The results indicated that the support vector machine combined with SMOTE data-balancing technique achieved the best classification performance with a 90.24% overall accuracy on the 10-fold holdout sample. All three data-balancing techniques improved the prediction accuracy for the minority class. Applying sensitivity analyses on developed models, we also identified the most important variables for accurate prediction of student attrition. Application of these models has the potential to accurately predict at-risk students and help reduce student dropout rates

Is the timed-up and go test feasible in mobile devices? A systematic review

The number of older adults is increasing worldwide, and it is expected that by 2050 over 2 billion individuals will be more than 60 years old. Older adults are exposed to numerous pathological problems such as Parkinson’s disease, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, post-stroke, and orthopedic disturbances. Several physiotherapy methods that involve measurement of movements, such as the Timed-Up and Go test, can be done to support efficient and effective evaluation of pathological symptoms and promotion of health and well-being. In this systematic review, the authors aim to determine how the inertial sensors embedded in mobile devices are employed for the measurement of the different parameters involved in the Timed-Up and Go test. The main contribution of this paper consists of the identification of the different studies that utilize the sensors available in mobile devices for the measurement of the results of the Timed-Up and Go test. The results show that mobile devices embedded motion sensors can be used for these types of studies and the most commonly used sensors are the magnetometer, accelerometer, and gyroscope available in off-the-shelf smartphones. The features analyzed in this paper are categorized as quantitative, quantitative + statistic, dynamic balance, gait properties, state transitions, and raw statistics. These features utilize the accelerometer and gyroscope sensors and facilitate recognition of daily activities, accidents such as falling, some diseases, as well as the measurement of the subject's performance during the test execution.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Machine Learning in Falls Prediction; A cognition-based predictor of falls for the acute neurological in-patient population

Background Information: Falls are associated with high direct and indirect costs, and significant morbidity and mortality for patients. Pathological falls are usually a result of a compromised motor system, and/or cognition. Very little research has been conducted on predicting falls based on this premise. Aims: To demonstrate that cognitive and motor tests can be used to create a robust predictive tool for falls. Methods: Three tests of attention and executive function (Stroop, Trail Making, and Semantic Fluency), a measure of physical function (Walk-12), a series of questions (concerning recent falls, surgery and physical function) and demographic information were collected from a cohort of 323 patients at a tertiary neurological center. The principal outcome was a fall during the in-patient stay (n = 54). Data-driven, predictive modelling was employed to identify the statistical modelling strategies which are most accurate in predicting falls, and which yield the most parsimonious models of clinical relevance. Results: The Trail test was identified as the best predictor of falls. Moreover, addition of any others variables, to the results of the Trail test did not improve the prediction (Wilcoxon signed-rank p < .001). The best statistical strategy for predicting falls was the random forest (Wilcoxon signed-rank p < .001), based solely on results of the Trail test. Tuning of the model results in the following optimized values: 68% (+- 7.7) sensitivity, 90% (+- 2.3) specificity, with a positive predictive value of 60%, when the relevant data is available. Conclusion: Predictive modelling has identified a simple yet powerful machine learning prediction strategy based on a single clinical test, the Trail test. Predictive evaluation shows this strategy to be robust, suggesting predictive modelling and machine learning as the standard for future predictive tools

Fall Prediction and Prevention Systems: Recent Trends, Challenges, and Future Research Directions.

Fall prediction is a multifaceted problem that involves complex interactions between physiological, behavioral, and environmental factors. Existing fall detection and prediction systems mainly focus on physiological factors such as gait, vision, and cognition, and do not address the multifactorial nature of falls. In addition, these systems lack efficient user interfaces and feedback for preventing future falls. Recent advances in internet of things (IoT) and mobile technologies offer ample opportunities for integrating contextual information about patient behavior and environment along with physiological health data for predicting falls. This article reviews the state-of-the-art in fall detection and prediction systems. It also describes the challenges, limitations, and future directions in the design and implementation of effective fall prediction and prevention systems

Open source R for applying machine learning to RPAS remote sensing images

The increase in the number of remote sensing platforms, ranging from satellites to close-range Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (RPAS), is leading to a growing demand for new image processing and classification tools. This article presents a comparison of the Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) machine-learning algorithms for extracting land-use classes in RPAS-derived orthomosaic using open source R packages. The camera used in this work captures the reflectance of the Red, Blue, Green and Near Infrared channels of a target. The full dataset is therefore a 4-channel raster image. The classification performance of the two methods is tested at varying sizes of training sets. The SVM and RF are evaluated using Kappa index, classification accuracy and classification error as accuracy metrics. The training sets are randomly obtained as subset of 2 to 20% of the total number of raster cells, with stratified sampling according to the land-use classes. Ten runs are done for each training set to calculate the variance in results. The control dataset consists of an independent classification obtained by photointerpretation. The validation is carried out(i) using the K-Fold cross validation, (ii) using the pixels from the validation test set, and (iii) using the pixels from the full test set. Validation with K-fold and with the validation dataset show SVM give better results, but RF prove to be more performing when training size is larger. Classification error and classification accuracy follow the trend of Kappa index

Parallel Multi-Hypothesis Algorithm for Criticality Estimation in Traffic and Collision Avoidance

Due to the current developments towards autonomous driving and vehicle active safety, there is an increasing necessity for algorithms that are able to perform complex criticality predictions in real-time. Being able to process multi-object traffic scenarios aids the implementation of a variety of automotive applications such as driver assistance systems for collision prevention and mitigation as well as fall-back systems for autonomous vehicles. We present a fully model-based algorithm with a parallelizable architecture. The proposed algorithm can evaluate the criticality of complex, multi-modal (vehicles and pedestrians) traffic scenarios by simulating millions of trajectory combinations and detecting collisions between objects. The algorithm is able to estimate upcoming criticality at very early stages, demonstrating its potential for vehicle safety-systems and autonomous driving applications. An implementation on an embedded system in a test vehicle proves in a prototypical manner the compatibility of the algorithm with the hardware possibilities of modern cars. For a complex traffic scenario with 11 dynamic objects, more than 86 million pose combinations are evaluated in 21 ms on the GPU of a Drive PX~2