Comparing Deep Recurrent Networks Based on the MAE Random Sampling, a First Approach

Recurrent neural networks have demonstrated to be good at tackling prediction problems, however due to their high sensitivity to hyper-parameter configuration, finding an appropriate network is a tough task. Automatic hyper-parameter optimization methods have emerged to find the most suitable configuration to a given problem, but these methods are not generally adopted because of their high computational cost. Therefore, in this study we extend the MAE random sampling, a low-cost method to compare single-hidden layer architectures, to multiple-hidden-layer ones. We validate empirically our proposal and show that it is possible to predict and compare the expected performance of an hyper-parameter configuration in a low-cost way.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. This research was partially funded by Ministerio de Economı́a, Industria y Competitividad, Gobierno de España, and European Regional Development Fund grant numbers TIN2016-81766-REDT (http://cirti.es) and TIN2017-88213-R (http://6city.lcc.uma.es)

Wind Power Forecasting Methods Based on Deep Learning: A Survey

Accurate wind power forecasting in wind farm can effectively reduce the enormous impact on grid operation safety when high permeability intermittent power supply is connected to the power grid. Aiming to provide reference strategies for relevant researchers as well as practical applications, this paper attempts to provide the literature investigation and methods analysis of deep learning, enforcement learning and transfer learning in wind speed and wind power forecasting modeling. Usually, wind speed and wind power forecasting around a wind farm requires the calculation of the next moment of the definite state, which is usually achieved based on the state of the atmosphere that encompasses nearby atmospheric pressure, temperature, roughness, and obstacles. As an effective method of high-dimensional feature extraction, deep neural network can theoretically deal with arbitrary nonlinear transformation through proper structural design, such as adding noise to outputs, evolutionary learning used to optimize hidden layer weights, optimize the objective function so as to save information that can improve the output accuracy while filter out the irrelevant or less affected information for forecasting. The establishment of high-precision wind speed and wind power forecasting models is always a challenge due to the randomness, instantaneity and seasonal characteristics

Predicting Remaining Useful Life using Time Series Embeddings based on Recurrent Neural Networks

We consider the problem of estimating the remaining useful life (RUL) of a system or a machine from sensor data. Many approaches for RUL estimation based on sensor data make assumptions about how machines degrade. Additionally, sensor data from machines is noisy and often suffers from missing values in many practical settings. We propose Embed-RUL: a novel approach for RUL estimation from sensor data that does not rely on any degradation-trend assumptions, is robust to noise, and handles missing values. Embed-RUL utilizes a sequence-to-sequence model based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to generate embeddings for multivariate time series subsequences. The embeddings for normal and degraded machines tend to be different, and are therefore found to be useful for RUL estimation. We show that the embeddings capture the overall pattern in the time series while filtering out the noise, so that the embeddings of two machines with similar operational behavior are close to each other, even when their sensor readings have significant and varying levels of noise content. We perform experiments on publicly available turbofan engine dataset and a proprietary real-world dataset, and demonstrate that Embed-RUL outperforms the previously reported state-of-the-art on several metrics.Comment: Presented at 2nd ML for PHM Workshop at SIGKDD 2017, Halifax, Canad