Modeling and Analysis of Resolve and Morale for the `Long War\u27

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied. Sun Tzu follow\u27s this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat. The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril. In the face of the instant communication provided by satellites, 24 hour news media coverage, and other technological advances, this factor is even more relevant today. This research provides an analytic framework, based on the principles of fourth generation operations, capturing the effects of will and resolve of the combatant and population. The strategic level model investigates the long term impacts of asymmetric conflict. These results are primarily measured in the socio-political arena rather than the military battlefield. The model developed in this dissertation remains a model of conflict and combat. However, some of the impacts from the political, economic, and informational instruments of power are represented in the model through the dynamic adaptation of public resolve and combat spirit. To paraphrase Sun Tzu, war is vitally important and must be studied. Therefore, this dissertation puts forth a means to model key aspects of conflict in the `long war\u27

Changing DoD’s Analysis Paradigm

War gaming and military modeling have a well documented history covering over two centuries, a period that coincides with the inception and evolution of formal professional development for military officers. The term war game used here refers to “a warfare model or simulation that does not involve the operations of actual forces, in which the flow of events affects and is affected by decisions made during the course of those events by players representing opposing sides.

Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Oral History Project Interview of Dr. Jacqueline R. Henningsen, FS

Interviews with Dr. Jacqueline R. Henningsen, FS, took place on February 7, 2006, February 10, 2006, March 1, 2006, May 12, 2006, and September 10, 2016. Mr. Jim Bexfield, FS, Bexfield et al. Military Operations Research Society (MORS) Oral History Project Interview of Dr. Jacqueline R. Henningsen, FS Colonel Roxann Oyler, Mr. Roy Reiss, FS, and Dr. Bob Sheldon, FS, interviewers

Issues in Modeling Military Space

Fighter Pilots students undertake an intense 120-day training program. New classes of students enter the training program at regular interval. Students endured rigorous academic, simulator, and aircraft training throughout the program. Squadron schedulers ensure the multiple classes and students are scheduled for the activities. Simulator and aircraft training are scheduled individual for each student. Academic training are taught to the class. Aircraft utilization must also be considered. Aircraft Sortie training are also constrained by daylight hours. Additionally, students are limited to a maximum of three training events in a given day. Squadron schedulers must balance these requirements to ensure students meet their training requirements and successfully graduate. The dynamic training environment requires advanced robust schedules with flexibility to accommodate changes. A Visual Interactive Modeling approach is used to generate schedules. Current schedules are being generated manually with an Excel spreadsheet. Taking advantage of Excel\u27s Visual Basic Programming language, the Excel tool is modified in several ways. Scheduling Dispatch rules are implemented to automatically generate feasible schedules. Graphical User Interfaces are used to create a user-friendly environment. Schedulers guide the schedule building process to produce a robust schedule. An attrition environment is created to simulate attrition probabilities of aircraft sortie training due to operations, maintenance, weather, and other cancellations. Analysis of dispatch rules are analyzed

Modeling human and organizational behavior using a relation-centric multi-agent system design paradigm

Today's modeling and simulation communities are being challenged to create rich, detailed models incorporating human decision-making and organizational behavior. Recent advances in distributed artificial intelligence and complex systems theory have demonstrated that such ill-defined problems can be effectively modeled with agent-based simulation techniques using multiple, autonomoous, adaptive entities. RELATE, a relation-centric design paradigm for multi-agent systems (MAS), is presented to assist developers incorporate MAS solutions into their simulations. RELATe focuses the designer on six key concepts of MAS simulations: relationships, environment, laws, agents, things, and effectors. A library of Java classes is presented which enables the user to rapidly prototype an agent-based simulation. This library utilizes the Java programming language to support cross-platform and web based designs. All Java classes and interfaces are fully documented using HTML Javadoc format. Two reference cases are provided that allow for easy code reuse and modification. Finally, an existing metworked DIS-Java-VRML simulation was modified to demonstrate the ability to utilize the RELATE library to add agents to existing applications. LCDR Kim Roddy focused on the development and refinement of the RELATE design paradigm, while LT Mike Dickson focused on the actual Java implementation. Joint work was conducted on all research and reference caseshttp://www.archive.org/details/modelinghumanorg00roddU.S. Navy (U.S.N.) author

Modeling the Decision Process of a Joint Task Force Commander

The U.S. military uses modeling and simulation as a tool to help meet its warfighting needs. A key element within military simulations is the ability to accurately represent human behavior. This is especially true in a simulation\u27s ability to emulate realistic military decisions. However, current decision models fail to provide the variability and flexibility that human decision makers exhibit. Further, most decision models are focused on tactical decisions and ignore the decision process of senior military commanders at the operational level of warfare. In an effort to develop a better decision model that would mimic the decision process of a senior military commander, this research sought to identify an underlying cognitive process and computational techniques that could adequately implement it. Recognition-Primed Decision making (RPD) was identified as one such model that characterized this process. Multiagent system simulation was identified as a computational system that could mimic the cognitive process identified by RPD. The result was a model of RPD called RPDAgent. Using an operational military decision scenario, decisions produced by RPDAgent were compared against decisions made by military officers. It was found that RPDAgent produced decisions that were equivalent to its human counterparts. RPDAgent\u27s decisions were not optimum decisions, but decisions that reflected the variability inherent in those made by humans in an operational military environment

Stochastic simulation of a Commander's decision cycle (SSIM CODE)

This thesis develops a stochastic representation of a tactical commanderâ s decision cycle and applies the model within the high-resolution combat simulation: Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century (Combat XXI). Combat XXI is a Joint Army-Marine Corps effort to replace the Combined Arms and Support Evaluation Model (CASTFOREM)â a legacy combat simulation. Combat XXI is a non-interactive, high-resolution, analytical combat simulation focused on tactical combat. Combat XXI is being developed by the U.S. Army TRADOC Analysis Center-White Sands Missile Range (TRAC- WSMR) and the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC). Combat XXI models land and amphibious warfare for applications in the research, development and acquisition, and the advanced concepts requirements domains. Stochastic decision-making enhances Command and Control (C2) decision processes in Combat XXI. The stochastic simulation of a commanderâ s decision cycle (SSIM CODE) addresses variability in decision-making due to uncertainty, chance and the commanderâ s attributes. A Bayesian Network representation of a conditional probability model for a commanderâ s decision cycle is implemented in SSIM CODE. This thesis develops, applies and evaluates the effectiveness of SSIM CODE.http://archive.org/details/stochasticsimula109452518US Marine Corps (USMC) autho

Proceedings of the 2004 ONR Decision-Support Workshop Series: Interoperability

In August of 1998 the Collaborative Agent Design Research Center (CADRC) of the California Polytechnic State University in San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly), approached Dr. Phillip Abraham of the Office of Naval Research (ONR) with the proposal for an annual workshop focusing on emerging concepts in decision-support systems for military applications. The proposal was considered timely by the ONR Logistics Program Office for at least two reasons. First, rapid advances in information systems technology over the past decade had produced distributed collaborative computer-assistance capabilities with profound potential for providing meaningful support to military decision makers. Indeed, some systems based on these new capabilities such as the Integrated Marine Multi-Agent Command and Control System (IMMACCS) and the Integrated Computerized Deployment System (ICODES) had already reached the field-testing and final product stages, respectively. Second, over the past two decades the US Navy and Marine Corps had been increasingly challenged by missions demanding the rapid deployment of forces into hostile or devastate dterritories with minimum or non-existent indigenous support capabilities. Under these conditions Marine Corps forces had to rely mostly, if not entirely, on sea-based support and sustainment operations. Particularly today, operational strategies such as Operational Maneuver From The Sea (OMFTS) and Sea To Objective Maneuver (STOM) are very much in need of intelligent, near real-time and adaptive decision-support tools to assist military commanders and their staff under conditions of rapid change and overwhelming data loads. In the light of these developments the Logistics Program Office of ONR considered it timely to provide an annual forum for the interchange of ideas, needs and concepts that would address the decision-support requirements and opportunities in combined Navy and Marine Corps sea-based warfare and humanitarian relief operations. The first ONR Workshop was held April 20-22, 1999 at the Embassy Suites Hotel in San Luis Obispo, California. It focused on advances in technology with particular emphasis on an emerging family of powerful computer-based tools, and concluded that the most able members of this family of tools appear to be computer-based agents that are capable of communicating within a virtual environment of the real world. From 2001 onward the venue of the Workshop moved from the West Coast to Washington, and in 2003 the sponsorship was taken over by ONR’s Littoral Combat/Power Projection (FNC) Program Office (Program Manager: Mr. Barry Blumenthal). Themes and keynote speakers of past Workshops have included: 1999: ‘Collaborative Decision Making Tools’ Vadm Jerry Tuttle (USN Ret.); LtGen Paul Van Riper (USMC Ret.);Radm Leland Kollmorgen (USN Ret.); and, Dr. Gary Klein (KleinAssociates) 2000: ‘The Human-Computer Partnership in Decision-Support’ Dr. Ronald DeMarco (Associate Technical Director, ONR); Radm CharlesMunns; Col Robert Schmidle; and, Col Ray Cole (USMC Ret.) 2001: ‘Continuing the Revolution in Military Affairs’ Mr. Andrew Marshall (Director, Office of Net Assessment, OSD); and,Radm Jay M. Cohen (Chief of Naval Research, ONR) 2002: ‘Transformation ... ’ Vadm Jerry Tuttle (USN Ret.); and, Steve Cooper (CIO, Office ofHomeland Security) 2003: ‘Developing the New Infostructure’ Richard P. Lee (Assistant Deputy Under Secretary, OSD); and, MichaelO’Neil (Boeing) 2004: ‘Interoperability’ MajGen Bradley M. Lott (USMC), Deputy Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command; Donald Diggs, Director, C2 Policy, OASD (NII

Coming Full Circle with Boyd\u27s OODA Loop Ideas: An Analysis of Innovation Diffusion and Evolution

The Observe-Orient-Decide-Act (OODA) Loop ideas of Air Force Colonel John Boyd have impacted the Department of Defense (DoD), influenced military thought, paved the way for operational change, and helped to shape fighting doctrines. A wide variety of OODA Loop ideas and interpretations exist in the literature, but are unorganized and have not undergone holistic study to determine how Boyd\u27s ideas have spread or changed over time. As such, this research analyzed a quarter century (1976-2003) sample of the OODA Loop literature to examine the diffusion and evolution of OODA Loop ideas since Boyd\u27s original conceptualizations. This research used qualitative data analysis to examine OODA Loop ideas in light of innovation diffusion theory. Ideas from Boyd\u27s original OODA Loop theories were compared and contrasted with subsequent literature instances to assess diffusion and evolution of OODA Loop ideas in the DoD. This research concluded with a proposed conceptual framework for collectively considering OODA Loop ideas