Search CORE

15 research outputs found

Modeling effect based operations using fuzzy cognitive maps and simulation

Author: Dilek YAMAN
Seçkin POLAT
Publication venue: İTÜDERGİSİ/d
Publication date: 05/08/2010
Field of study

Etki Odaklı Harekât, düşman üzerinde istenen stratejik çıktıyı elde etmek için, tüm askeri ve askeri olmayan kabiliyetlerin; taktik, operatif ve stratejik seviyede, sinerji sağlayacak şekilde uygulanması süreci olarak tanımlanabilir. Etki Odaklı Harekât konseptinde fiziksel hedeflerden çok, düşman üzerinde arzu edilen etkiyi yaratacak düğüm noktaları önem kazanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada problem, harekâtın amaçlarını gerçekleştirecek farklı hareket tarzlarının belirlenmesi ve uygun hareket tarzının seçimi olarak tanımlanmıştır. Bu nedenle öncelikle karar vericinin amaçlarına ulaşmasında fayda sağlayabilecek tüm etkilerin ve bu etkiler arası etkileşimlerin ortaya konması gerekmektedir.  Bu çalışma bir şebeke yapısı ortaya çıkarmaktadır. Yapılmak istenen; ortaya çıkan şebeke üzerinde, istenen amaçları elde etmek için, hangi düğümlerin tetiklenmesi gerektiğine karar vermeye destek sağlayacak bir yöntem/araç bulunmasıdır. Ortaya çıkan şebekenin taşıması beklenen özellikler düşünülerek, yapılan incelemeler sonucunda, seçilecek yöntemin klasik Bulanık Bilişsel Harita olmasına ve yöntemin ihtiyaçlar doğrultusunda geliştirilmesine karar verilmiştir. Çalışmada Bulanık Bilişsel Harita yöntemine; etki olabilirliği, etki süresi, dinamik etki değeri değişimi ve etki kalıcılığı özellikleri eklenmiştir. Geliştirilen model örnek bir senaryo üzerinde uygulanmıştır. Alan uzmanlarıyla çalışılarak belirlenen senaryo değerlerleri ile yapılan uygulamalar sonucunda Bulanık Bilişsel Harita yöntemine eklenen özelliklerin, sonuçlar üzerinde, klasik haline göre önemli farklılıklar yarattığı görülmüştür. Bu nedenle özelliklerin planlamalarda ve Bulanık Bilişsel Harita ile çalışmalarda dikkate alınması önerilmektedir. Elde edilen deneme aracı, karar vericiye, oluşturulan şebeke üzerinde istenen düğümlere istenen ilk değerler verilerek harekâtın amaçlarına erişim derecesini gözlemleme olanağı sunmuştur.   Anahtar Kelimeler: Etki Odaklı Harekât, Bulanık Bilişsel Harita, nedensellik gösteren araçlar, simülasyon.Historically, the majority of military operations have been conducted on the logical premise that degrading an adversary?s military combat power will sap his will to continue the conflict. In future conflicts, such an approach may not prove to be as effective. Increasing of the effect of adversary?s military destruction power provided by innovations in technology and globalization, gaining importance of preventive intervention concept instead of opposing the enemy?s force, insufficiency of military focused operations for desired endstate against new threats and ambiguities, showing an increased reluctance to support conflicts that result in heavy loss of life (friend or foe) and wide spread destruction of property by many societies have initiated the transition to Effect Based Planning system. Effect Based Operations (EBO) could be defined as a process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome or effect on the enemy through the synergistic and cumulative application of the full range of military and non-military capabilities at all levels, tactical, operative and strategic, of conflict. A different and broader definition is given as ?EBO are coordinated sets of actions directed at shaping the behavior of friends, foes, and neutrals in peace, crisis and war?. In EBO concept, nodes which compose desired effect on enemy, gain importance rather than physical targets. Focused on activity-effect-object link with an effect based concern, adversary?s weak points and connection points which could create chain effect are aimed instead of attacking the strong sides. In this concept, effects which are intended to strategic objectives are determined and alternative courses of actions (COA) are defined to form those effects. To obtain the desired effect on predetermined nodes, not only military alternatives but also political and economical powers in addition to information warfare are used in a system approach manner in order to serve different alternatives to decision makers. As in the other sort of operation planning, in EBO planning, decision makers have to determine alternative COAs which realize the desired effects, evaluate them and choose the best one. Therefore, problem studied on is described as determining alternative COAs which could realize the aims of operation and choosing the best one among them. EBO rely on the ability to identify the effects that will lead to campaign success. Because of this, it is essential to manifest all effects which can contribute reaching the aims and interactions between those effects. This exertion deduces a network structure. Constructed network to solve the problem need not to have hierarchical structure, feedbacks can exist. It is essential that nodes (variables, concepts) should be measurable. To provide this each node must have a value. Effect possibility, effect duration, effect value and effect permanence should be involved in evaluation. The purpose is to find out a method / tool that supports deciding which nodes should be triggered on the emergent network to obtain the desired endstate. In the study, Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) were selected as the solving method and effect possibility, effect duration, dynamic effect value changing and effect permanence features were added to the FCMs? concept value calculation algorithm which do not exist in the classical method. Developed algorithm was applied to a sample scenario. The data needed by developed model and related to the scenario were made up by six experts. At the end of applications performed by using those data, it was observed that added features to FCM method produced different outcomes proportional to the classical computing algorithm. Because of that, these features must be taken into consideration in planning and studies with FCMs. Additionally, produced test tool provide ability to the decision maker to trigger the desired nodes on the designed network and observe the achievement degree of operation objectives. In future; to realize the desired effects with desired degree, it is essential to study on finding the best nodes set to be triggered and the best initial value of those nodes under the conditions of time, cost etc. In the current situation, decision makers need to make many experiments with different initial configurations to find such a ?best? solution. Because this is unreasonable especially when the amount of nodes increases, methods have been begun to search for performing that optimization. Keywords: Effect based operations, fuzzy cognitive map, causal tools, simulation

itüdergisi (E-Journals - İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Istanbul Teknik Uniersity., İTÜ)

Super Fuzzy Matrices and Super Fuzzy Models for Social Scientists

Author: Amal K.
Kandasamy W. B. Vasantha
Smarandache Florentin
Publication venue
Publication date: 01/01/2008
Field of study

This book introduces the concept of fuzzy super matrices and operations on them. This book will be highly useful to social scientists who wish to work with multi-expert models. Super fuzzy models using Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Fuzzy Relational Maps, Bidirectional Associative Memories and Fuzzy Associative Memories are defined here. The authors introduce 13 multi-expert models using the notion of fuzzy supermatrices. These models are described with illustrative examples. This book has three chapters. In the first chaper, the basic concepts about super matrices and fuzzy super matrices are recalled. Chapter two introduces the notion of fuzzy super matrices adn their properties. The final chapter introduces many super fuzzy multi expert models.Comment: 280 page

arXiv.org e-Print Archive

PhilPapers

Automated demand response applied to a set of commercial buildings

Author: Lincoln Donald
Publication venue: UNM Digital Repository
Publication date: 09/02/2010
Field of study

Commercial facility demand response refers to voluntary actions by customers that change their consumption of electric power in response to price signals, incentives, or directions from grid operators at times of high wholesale market prices or when electric system reliability is jeopardized. Energy management in a commercial facility can be segregated into two areas: energy efficiency and demand response. This dissertation assesses both in two commercial facilities: one designed and constructed prior to the development of demand response principles and the second designed and constructed with modern energy controls and energy efficient materials. The energy evaluation identified opportunities for energy conservation and strategies for demand response. Next this paper presents a fuzzy method for predicting a facilitys baseline load profile. The baseline load profile is the predicted energy use of a facility during a demand response event in the absence of any energy reduction. During a demand response event, building operators or their automated control systems make adjustments to building operations with the goal of reducing the building\u27s electric load during times of the electric system\u27s peak electric usage. The baseline load profile is key to assessing the actual peak load electric energy reduction from a demand response event. Some grid operators are considering compensating commercial facilities for the energy reduction they achieve during demand response events. In fact the Public Service Company of New Mexico, the electricity supplier to UNM, has a demand response program that would compensate in this manner. The method described here is based on fuzzy set theory and allows the inclusion of building occupancy in the calculation. Our method achieves greater accuracy than other methods currently in use. Third, this study developed strategies for minimizing occupant dissatisfaction during demand response events using fuzzy cognitive mapping. If occupant discomfort causes significant complaints to the facility operator or owner, they may direct the demand response event be discontinued and thus eliminate the electric power savings. Assessing and predicting this potential interruption of the demand response event is not readily evaluated with crisp analytical techniques. Thus we elected to assess this problem using fuzzy set theory as applied to cognitive maps. Our model focuses on the University of New Mexico (UNM) campus. Fourth, we developed the conceptual design and operation of a facility control system to manage demand response events for the campus of the University of New Mexico. This section presents the design principles, the demand response control system logic and operation, and the economic value based on the PNM Peak Saver Demand Response Program financial incentives.\u2

Técnicas de visión estereoscópica para determinar la estructura tridimensional de la escena

Author: Montalvo Martínez Martín
Publication venue
Publication date: 01/01/2010
Field of study

En este trabajo se realiza un estudio sobre la efectividad de una serie de métodos de correspondencia estereoscópica. La correspondencia estereoscópica constituye uno de los pasos esenciales dentro de la visión estereoscópica en los sistemas robotizados, de ahí su importancia. El objetivo se centra en el estudio de la viabilidad de los mismos de cara a su implementación en sistemas estereoscópicos que han de operar en entornos de exterior y bajo condiciones del entorno adversas. La motivación del trabajo proviene de la necesidad derivada de una serie de proyectos de investigación dentro de las actividades del grupo ISCAR. En este trabajo se han realizado diversas pruebas experimentales orientadas a la identificación de los métodos más prometedores en el ámbito de la correspondencia estereoscópica con la finalidad indicada. Se han estudiado varias técnicas existentes en la literatura y se han establecido las pautas a seguir en el futuro a tenor de los resultados obtenidos para su implementación en sistemas reales. [ABSTRACT] In this work we have studied several stereovision matching approaches with the aim of testing its effectiveness. The main step in robotized systems, equipped with stereovision, is the correspondence, here is its relevance. The goal of this work is focused on the study of the viability of such methods with the aim that they can be implemented in stereoscopic vision-based systems working in adverse outdoor environmental conditions. This work is motivated because the ISCAR group is currently working in several research projects where the stereovision is a crucial system. In this work several experimental tests have been carried out oriented toward the identification of the most promising correspondence methods with the above expressed goal. Several existing approaches in the literature have been studied and, as a result, some guidelines have been established based on the results reported, so that the research is oriented toward future implementations in real systems

Docta Complutense

Parasiten und ihre Wechselwirkungen mit der afrikanischen Kultur am Beispiel von Schlafkrankheit und Nagana

Author: Bachhofer Michael
Publication venue
Publication date: 01/01/2008
Field of study

Jede Wirkung hat bei genauerer Betrachtung eine Vielzahl an größeren und kleineren Ursachen. Oft werden Wirkungen wieder zu Ursachen anderer Wirkungen, oder im Fall von Feedbackschleifen zu ihren eigenen Ursachen. Ein solches Wirkungsgefüge wurde in der vorliegenden Arbeit für die Parasitosen Schlafkrankheit und Nagana im Zusammenhang mit soziokulturellen Faktoren dargestellt. Als Methode wurde Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping gewählt, welche als Ergebnis ein qualitatives Model des Gesamtgefüges als grafische Repräsentation, Indizes zur Strukturbeschreibung und Szenarien für ein besseres Verständnis von Feedbackschleifen im Modell zeigt. Diese Arbeit war ein erster Versuch Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping als interdisziplinäres Werkzeug im Bereich Ethnologie, Medizin, Parasitologie und Ökologie einzusetzen. Die Ergebnisse rechtfertigen den Versuch. Die resultierende Fuzzy Cognitive Map besteht aus 31 Faktoren, welche mittels 108 kausalen Verbindungen verknüpft sind. Die Stärke der Verbindungen wurde durch Fuzzy Werte zwischen -1 und +1 angegeben. Zur Charakterisierung der einzelnen Faktoren wurden die Indizes: Outdegree, Indegree, Centrality, sowie ein neuer in der derzeitigen Literatur noch nicht verwendeter Index, die relative Transmitter-Receivercharakteristik verwendet. Die Dynamische Analyse mit den resultierenden Szenarien gab Aufschluss über Trends im System und ermöglichte ein besseres Verständnis der Wechselwirkungen zwischen den Faktoren. Zwei Szenarien wurden mit Realdaten verglichen, was eine Verifikation des Models erlaubte. Die Arbeit beinhaltet ein Überblickskapitel am Beginn, welches sich mit der Biologie der Erreger und Vektoren, sowie mit medizinischen Aspekten der Parasitosen befasst. Das Ende dieses Kapitels, welches auch als Überleitung zum empirischen Teil der Arbeit dient, erklärt über welchen Gedankengang der Verfasser zur verwendeten Methode gelangte. Es befinden sich sechs Karten im Format DIN A3 am Ende der Arbeit, vor dem Einband.On closer inspection, all effects have a multiplicity of greater and lesser causes. Often effects can be the cause of other effects and in some cases – as in the case of feedback loops – their own cause. Such cases of interactive structure make up the work done in this thesis, which investigates the connections between socio-cultural and the parasitoses, sleeping-sickness and nagana. Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was used as the methodology in this research, with the qualitative model represented in graphics, indices and scenarios. The indices explain the structure and the scenarios, contribute a better understanding of the feedback loops. This was the first time FCM was used as an interdisciplinary tool in the fields of ethnology, medicine, parasitology and ecology. The results justify this attempt. The resulting FCM consists of 31 factors, which are linked through 108 causal connections. The strengths of the connections are displayed by fuzzy values between -1 and +1. The factors were characterized through indices, i.e. outdegree, indegree and centrality, as well as a new index – not in literature at the time – which explains the ‘relative transmitter-receiver characteristics’. The dynamic analysis, with the resulting scenarios, showed the trends and enabled a clearer understanding of interdependency in the system. Real data was compared to two scenarios, thus allowing verification of the model. The work also includes an overview chapter at the beginning, which deals with the biology of the pathogens and vectors, as well as medical aspects of the parasitoses. The end of this chapter, which connects to the empirical part of the work, explains the train of thoughts of how the author came to use this methodology

OTHES

Fuzzy Cognitive Maps and Neutrosophic Cognitive Maps

Author: Kandasamy W. B. Vasantha
Smarandache Florentin
Publication venue: UNM Digital Repository
Publication date: 01/01/2003
Field of study

As extension of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are now introduced the Neutrosophic Cognitive Map

ZENODO

SPECIAL FUZZY MATRICES FOR SOCIAL SCIENTISTS

Author: Ilanthenral K.
Kandasamy W.B. Vasantha
Smarandache Florentin
Publication venue: UNM Digital Repository
Publication date: 01/01/2007
Field of study

This book is a continuation of the book, Elementary fuzzy matrix and fuzzy models for socio-scientists by the same authors. This book is a little advanced because we introduce a multi-expert fuzzy and neutrosophic models. It mainly tries to help social scientists to analyze any problem in which they need multi-expert systems with multi-models. To cater to this need, we have introduced new classes of fuzzy and neutrosophic special matrices. The first chapter is essentially spent on introducing the new notion of different types of special fuzzy and neutrosophic matrices, and the simple operations on them which are needed in the working of these multi expert models. In the second chapter, new set of multi expert models are introduced; these special fuzzy models and special fuzzy neutrosophic models that can cater to adopt any number of experts. The working of the model is also explained by illustrative examples. However, these special fuzzy models can also be used by applied mathematicians to study social and psychological problems. These models can also be used by doctors, engineers, scientists and statisticians. The SFCM, SMFCM, SNCM, SMNCM, SFRM, SNRM, SMFRM, SMNRM, SFNCMs, SFNRMs, etc. can give the special hidden pattern for any given special input vector