Coalition analysis with preference uncertainty in group decision support

Coalition analysis is extended to incorporate uncertain preference into three stability concepts, general metarationality (GMR), symmetric metarationality (SMR), and sequential stability (SEQ) under the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution. As a follow-up analysis in the graph model, coalition analysis aims to assess whether equilibriums under individual calculations are vulnerable to coalition moves and countermoves and, hence, become unstable under coalition stabilities. Coalition analysis has been considered for transitive graph models with simple preference under four stabilities, Nash, GMR, SMR, and SEQ, as well as general graph models with uncertain preference for the Nash stability. This paper introduces preference uncertainty into coalition stabilities under GMR, SMR, and SEQ for general graph models that can be transitive or intransitive. Depending on the focal coalition’s different attitudes towards preference uncertainty, four different extensions are presented. Interrelationships of coalition stabilities are investigated within each extension and across the four extensions. A case study is carried out to illustrate how to apply the proposed coalition stabilities

Vote-Trading in International Institutions

There is evidence that countries trade votes among each other in international institutions on a wide range of issues, including the use of force, trade issues and elections of judges. Vote-trading has been criticized as being a form of corruption, undue influence and coercion. Contrary to common wisdom, however, I argue in this paper that the case for introducing policy measures against vote-trading cannot be made out on the basis of available evidence. This paper sets out an analytical framework for analyzing vote-trading in international institutions, focusing on three major contexts in which vote-trading may generate benefits and costs: (1) agency costs (collective good), (2) coercive tendering and (3) agency costs (constituents). The applicability of each context depends primarily on the type of decision in question - i.e. preference-decision or judgment-decision - and the interests that countries are expected to maximize when voting. The analytical framework is applied to evidence of vote-trading in four institutions, the Security Council, the General Assembly, the World Trade Organization and the International Whaling Commission. The application of the analysis reveals that while vote-trading can create significant costs, there is only equivocal evidence to this effect, and in several cases vote-trading generates important benefits

Strategic Voting in Multiparty Systems: A Group Experiment

The paper tests the theory of strategic voting for multiparty systems with proportional representation and coalition governments at the micro-level. The study focuses in particular on the question whether participation in repeated elections allows voters to learn from experience and enables them to optimize their decision behavior. An economic group experiment with decision scenarios of varying degrees of difficulty was used to test decision making at both the individual and group level. The results suggest that a majority of voters were able to pursue successful decision strategies and that the difficulty of the decision scenarios affected the voting performance of the participants as expected. However, a learning effect is not supported by the data.

Parliamentary Voting Procedures: Agenda Control, Manipulation, and Uncertainty

We study computational problems for two popular parliamentary voting procedures: the amendment procedure and the successive procedure. While finding successful manipulations or agenda controls is tractable for both procedures, our real-world experimental results indicate that most elections cannot be manipulated by a few voters and agenda control is typically impossible. If the voter preferences are incomplete, then finding which alternatives can possibly win is NP-hard for both procedures. Whilst deciding if an alternative necessarily wins is coNP-hard for the amendment procedure, it is polynomial-time solvable for the successive one

Network Capital and Cooperation Patterns in the Working Groups of the Council of the EU

This working paper presents findings from a study of network capital and cooperation patterns in the working groups of the Council of the European Union. Two successive rounds of telephone interviews with Council working group representatives from all member states were conducted in 2003 and 2006. It is demonstrated that some member states have a consistently higher stock of network capital (having close ties to a large number of powerful cooperation partners) than others, over time and across policy fields. Size explains a lot of this variation, but there is also room for actor-based factors. For small states in particular inter-personal trust seems to have a positive effect. The findings also indicate that cooperation patterns in the Council working groups follow geographical patterns. The dominant North-South dimension is consistent across policy fields. Rather than having one 'core' the EU15 Council revolved around a North (the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK) and a South (France, Italy, Spain) center, connected by Germany. The 2004 enlargement did not change this pattern, but only added new groups of countries to the periphery around the two main centers. There is evidence to suggest that the geographical cooperation patterns are mainly driven by cultural factors, rather than economic interests or political ideologies.political science; COREPER; Council of Ministers; enlargement; power analysis; networks

Informational Lobbying under the Shadow of Political Pressure

We examine the incentives of an interest group to provide verifiable policy-relevant information to a political decision-maker and to exert political pressure on her. We show that both lobbying instruments are interdependent. In our view information provision is a risky attempt to affect the politician’s beliefs about the desirability of the lobby’s objective. The constraints governing informational lobbying determine a specific lottery available. The circumstances under which political pressure can be applied specify the lobby’s valuation of different beliefs of the politician and, thus, her attitude toward risk. The combination of lotteries available and the “shadow of political pressure” (or induced risk preference) determines the optimal lobbying behavior. We identify several factors that induce risk proclivity (and thus information provision), which allows to explain the stylized fact that lobbies engage both in information provision and political pressure. Moreover, our approach gives a novel explanation for the fact that interest groups often try to provide information credibly. We finally study the extent to which this preference for credibility is robust and identify some instances in which lobbies may prefer to strategically withhold information.Experts, Influence, Credibility, Political contributions, Issue ads.

Applications of Negotiation Theory to Water Issues

The purpose of the paper is to review the applications of non-cooperative bargaining theory to water related issues – which fall in the category of formal models of negotiation. The ultimate aim is that to, on the one hand, identify the conditions under which agreements are likely to emerge, and their characteristics; and, on the other hand, to support policy makers in devising the “rules of the game” that could help obtain a desired result. Despite the fact that allocation of natural resources, especially of trans-boundary nature, has all the characteristics of a negotiation problem, there are not many applications of formal negotiation theory to the issue. Therefore, this paper first discusses the non-cooperative bargaining models applied to water allocation problems found in the literature. Particular attention will be given to those directly modelling the process of negotiation, although some attempts at finding strategies to maintain the efficient allocation solution will also be illustrated. In addition, this paper will focus on Negotiation Support Systems (NSS), developed to support the process of negotiation. This field of research is still relatively new, however, and NSS have not yet found much use in real life negotiation. The paper will conclude by highlighting the key remaining gaps in the literature.Negotiation theory, Water, Agreeements, Stochasticity, Stakeholders

The Influence of Climate Change Considerations on Energy Policy: The Case of Russia

To those working on climate change it is obvious that energy policy should be influenced by climate change considerations. The question that this paper seeks to answer is, to what extent do they influence policy and what contribution can a careful analysis of the costs and benefits of climate change options have on the formulation of that policy. We seek to understand this by looking in some detail at energy policy formulation in Russia. To do so it is necessary to look at the whole set of issues that determine energy policy. These include energy security, macroeconomic and uncertainty factors, local environmental issues and social issues. The analysis has been carried out for a specific case – that of the RF, where energy policy is currently under formulation to 2010. Two options have been looked at: a “High Coal” option, where there would be a substantial change in fuel mix away from gas to coal; and a “High Gas” option where the current fuel mix is retained and the increase in demand is met from all sources in proportion to current use. The analysis shows that, at international prices for fuels, the “High Coal” option is attractive. However, when we include the potential decline of price for natural gas in the European market, the relative preference for this option drops dramatically but it still remains the preferred option. When, account is also taken of the carbon benefits of the High Gas option, using plausible values for carbon, the attraction of the High Coal option is further reduced but not altered. When finally account is taken of the health associated with the lower use of coal in the High Gas option, the preference can be reversed but it requires a critical value for the health benefits. This critical value – at around $3,000 for a life year lost -- is plausible for the RF, if anything the actual value is probably higher. What the analysis shows is the need for a careful evaluation of the different factors determining energy policy. Among these is climate change. It is not the critical factor but it can be an important one. Perhaps more important are the environmental benefits that go with the lower carbon High Gas options.Climate policy, Russia, Ancillary benefits

An Integrated Assessment Framework for Water Resources Management: A DSS Tool and a Pilot Study Application

Decision making for the management of water resources is a complex and difficult task. This is due to the complex socio-economic system that involves a large number of interest groups pursuing multiple and conflicting objectives, within an often intricate legislative framework. Several Decision Support Systems have been developed but very few have indeed proved to be effective and truly operational. MULINO (Multisectoral, Integrated and Operational Decision Support System for Sustainable Use of Water Resources at the Catchment Scale) is a project funded under the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Research and the key action line dedicated to operational management schemes and decision support system for sustainable use of water resources. The MULINO DSS (mDSS) integrates hydrological models with multi-criteria decision methods and adopts the DPSIR (Driving Force – Pressure – State – Impact – Response) framework developed by the European Environment Agency. The DPSIR was converted from a static reporting scheme into a dynamic framework for integrated assessment modelling (IAM) and multi-criteria evaluation procedures. This paper presents the methodological framework and the intermediate results of the mDSS tool through its application in a pilot study area located in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice.Integrated water resources management, Spatial decision-making, Decision support system, Catchment, Environmental modelling