Intraday forecasts of a volatility index: Functional time series methods with dynamic updating

As a forward-looking measure of future equity market volatility, the VIX index has gained immense popularity in recent years to become a key measure of risk for market analysts and academics. We consider discrete reported intraday VIX tick values as realisations of a collection of curves observed sequentially on equally spaced and dense grids over time and utilise functional data analysis techniques to produce one-day-ahead forecasts of these curves. The proposed method facilitates the investigation of dynamic changes in the index over very short time intervals as showcased using the 15-second high-frequency VIX index values. With the help of dynamic updating techniques, our point and interval forecasts are shown to enjoy improved accuracy over conventional time series models.Comment: 29 pages, 5 figures, To appear at the Annals of Operations Researc

Far-Field Compression for Fast Kernel Summation Methods in High Dimensions

We consider fast kernel summations in high dimensions: given a large set of points in $d$ dimensions (with $d \gg 3$) and a pair-potential function (the {\em kernel} function), we compute a weighted sum of all pairwise kernel interactions for each point in the set. Direct summation is equivalent to a (dense) matrix-vector multiplication and scales quadratically with the number of points. Fast kernel summation algorithms reduce this cost to log-linear or linear complexity. Treecodes and Fast Multipole Methods (FMMs) deliver tremendous speedups by constructing approximate representations of interactions of points that are far from each other. In algebraic terms, these representations correspond to low-rank approximations of blocks of the overall interaction matrix. Existing approaches require an excessive number of kernel evaluations with increasing $d$ and number of points in the dataset. To address this issue, we use a randomized algebraic approach in which we first sample the rows of a block and then construct its approximate, low-rank interpolative decomposition. We examine the feasibility of this approach theoretically and experimentally. We provide a new theoretical result showing a tighter bound on the reconstruction error from uniformly sampling rows than the existing state-of-the-art. We demonstrate that our sampling approach is competitive with existing (but prohibitively expensive) methods from the literature. We also construct kernel matrices for the Laplacian, Gaussian, and polynomial kernels -- all commonly used in physics and data analysis. We explore the numerical properties of blocks of these matrices, and show that they are amenable to our approach. Depending on the data set, our randomized algorithm can successfully compute low rank approximations in high dimensions. We report results for data sets with ambient dimensions from four to 1,000.Comment: 43 pages, 21 figure

Tensor Decompositions for Signal Processing Applications From Two-way to Multiway Component Analysis

The widespread use of multi-sensor technology and the emergence of big datasets has highlighted the limitations of standard flat-view matrix models and the necessity to move towards more versatile data analysis tools. We show that higher-order tensors (i.e., multiway arrays) enable such a fundamental paradigm shift towards models that are essentially polynomial and whose uniqueness, unlike the matrix methods, is guaranteed under verymild and natural conditions. Benefiting fromthe power ofmultilinear algebra as theirmathematical backbone, data analysis techniques using tensor decompositions are shown to have great flexibility in the choice of constraints that match data properties, and to find more general latent components in the data than matrix-based methods. A comprehensive introduction to tensor decompositions is provided from a signal processing perspective, starting from the algebraic foundations, via basic Canonical Polyadic and Tucker models, through to advanced cause-effect and multi-view data analysis schemes. We show that tensor decompositions enable natural generalizations of some commonly used signal processing paradigms, such as canonical correlation and subspace techniques, signal separation, linear regression, feature extraction and classification. We also cover computational aspects, and point out how ideas from compressed sensing and scientific computing may be used for addressing the otherwise unmanageable storage and manipulation problems associated with big datasets. The concepts are supported by illustrative real world case studies illuminating the benefits of the tensor framework, as efficient and promising tools for modern signal processing, data analysis and machine learning applications; these benefits also extend to vector/matrix data through tensorization. Keywords: ICA, NMF, CPD, Tucker decomposition, HOSVD, tensor networks, Tensor Train

Penalized Orthogonal Iteration for Sparse Estimation of Generalized Eigenvalue Problem

We propose a new algorithm for sparse estimation of eigenvectors in generalized eigenvalue problems (GEP). The GEP arises in a number of modern data-analytic situations and statistical methods, including principal component analysis (PCA), multiclass linear discriminant analysis (LDA), canonical correlation analysis (CCA), sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) and invariant co-ordinate selection. We propose to modify the standard generalized orthogonal iteration with a sparsity-inducing penalty for the eigenvectors. To achieve this goal, we generalize the equation-solving step of orthogonal iteration to a penalized convex optimization problem. The resulting algorithm, called penalized orthogonal iteration, provides accurate estimation of the true eigenspace, when it is sparse. Also proposed is a computationally more efficient alternative, which works well for PCA and LDA problems. Numerical studies reveal that the proposed algorithms are competitive, and that our tuning procedure works well. We demonstrate applications of the proposed algorithm to obtain sparse estimates for PCA, multiclass LDA, CCA and SDR. Supplementary materials are available online