Will This Video Go Viral? Explaining and Predicting the Popularity of Youtube Videos

What makes content go viral? Which videos become popular and why others don't? Such questions have elicited significant attention from both researchers and industry, particularly in the context of online media. A range of models have been recently proposed to explain and predict popularity; however, there is a short supply of practical tools, accessible for regular users, that leverage these theoretical results. HIPie -- an interactive visualization system -- is created to fill this gap, by enabling users to reason about the virality and the popularity of online videos. It retrieves the metadata and the past popularity series of Youtube videos, it employs Hawkes Intensity Process, a state-of-the-art online popularity model for explaining and predicting video popularity, and it presents videos comparatively in a series of interactive plots. This system will help both content consumers and content producers in a range of data-driven inquiries, such as to comparatively analyze videos and channels, to explain and predict future popularity, to identify viral videos, and to estimate response to online promotion.Comment: 4 page

Recurrent Neural Networks for Online Video Popularity Prediction

In this paper, we address the problem of popularity prediction of online videos shared in social media. We prove that this challenging task can be approached using recently proposed deep neural network architectures. We cast the popularity prediction problem as a classification task and we aim to solve it using only visual cues extracted from videos. To that end, we propose a new method based on a Long-term Recurrent Convolutional Network (LRCN) that incorporates the sequentiality of the information in the model. Results obtained on a dataset of over 37'000 videos published on Facebook show that using our method leads to over 30% improvement in prediction performance over the traditional shallow approaches and can provide valuable insights for content creators

Shallow reading with Deep Learning: Predicting popularity of online content using only its title

With the ever decreasing attention span of contemporary Internet users, the title of online content (such as a news article or video) can be a major factor in determining its popularity. To take advantage of this phenomenon, we propose a new method based on a bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network designed to predict the popularity of online content using only its title. We evaluate the proposed architecture on two distinct datasets of news articles and news videos distributed in social media that contain over 40,000 samples in total. On those datasets, our approach improves the performance over traditional shallow approaches by a margin of 15%. Additionally, we show that using pre-trained word vectors in the embedding layer improves the results of LSTM models, especially when the training set is small. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt of applying popularity prediction using only textual information from the title

When is it Biased? Assessing the Representativeness of Twitter's Streaming API

Twitter has captured the interest of the scientific community not only for its massive user base and content, but also for its openness in sharing its data. Twitter shares a free 1% sample of its tweets through the "Streaming API", a service that returns a sample of tweets according to a set of parameters set by the researcher. Recently, research has pointed to evidence of bias in the data returned through the Streaming API, raising concern in the integrity of this data service for use in research scenarios. While these results are important, the methodologies proposed in previous work rely on the restrictive and expensive Firehose to find the bias in the Streaming API data. In this work we tackle the problem of finding sample bias without the need for "gold standard" Firehose data. Namely, we focus on finding time periods in the Streaming API data where the trend of a hashtag is significantly different from its trend in the true activity on Twitter. We propose a solution that focuses on using an open data source to find bias in the Streaming API. Finally, we assess the utility of the data source in sparse data situations and for users issuing the same query from different regions

Early Prediction of Movie Box Office Success based on Wikipedia Activity Big Data

Use of socially generated "big data" to access information about collective states of the minds in human societies has become a new paradigm in the emerging field of computational social science. A natural application of this would be the prediction of the society's reaction to a new product in the sense of popularity and adoption rate. However, bridging the gap between "real time monitoring" and "early predicting" remains a big challenge. Here we report on an endeavor to build a minimalistic predictive model for the financial success of movies based on collective activity data of online users. We show that the popularity of a movie can be predicted much before its release by measuring and analyzing the activity level of editors and viewers of the corresponding entry to the movie in Wikipedia, the well-known online encyclopedia.Comment: 13 pages, Including Supporting Information, 7 Figures, Download the dataset from: http://wwm.phy.bme.hu/SupplementaryDataS1.zi

Breaking the News: First Impressions Matter on Online News

A growing number of people are changing the way they consume news, replacing the traditional physical newspapers and magazines by their virtual online versions or/and weblogs. The interactivity and immediacy present in online news are changing the way news are being produced and exposed by media corporations. News websites have to create effective strategies to catch people's attention and attract their clicks. In this paper we investigate possible strategies used by online news corporations in the design of their news headlines. We analyze the content of 69,907 headlines produced by four major global media corporations during a minimum of eight consecutive months in 2014. In order to discover strategies that could be used to attract clicks, we extracted features from the text of the news headlines related to the sentiment polarity of the headline. We discovered that the sentiment of the headline is strongly related to the popularity of the news and also with the dynamics of the posted comments on that particular news.Comment: The paper appears in ICWSM 201