Would the reputation and behaviour of the Chinese stock exchange be a disincentive to investors considering a Chinese REIT?

China has drawn the world’s attention with the emergence, rapid growth and increasing maturity of its real estate market in the past twenty years. Currently the world’s third largest economy, China was the second largest Asian country for commercial property transaction capital flows in 2006 (JLL, 2007). International investors have recently shown considerable interest regarding property investment in China, via both direct and indirect property and changes to the rules governing internal funds are likely to initiate high levels of effective demand from domestic institutions too. China is yet to develop a Real Estate Investment trust (REIT) market; despite this investment demand encouragement for development of pilot REITs by the PRC government has waxed and waned with political imperatives to manage market and economic volatility. Chinese REITs would theoretically provide the opportunity for investors to access Chinese “property” returns with liquidity and flexibility and might further play a significant role in stabilising the Chinese capital market in the medium and long term. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the reputation and behaviour of the Chinese stock exchanges is a disincentive to investors considering a Chinese REIT. This is addressed firstly by assessing Chinese stock market volatility compared to that of the Hong Kong and Singapore stock exchanges. Secondly, a survey was used to explore Chinese domestic investors’ attitudes to investment in Chinese property REITs and their preferences amongst the three main Asian stock exchanges where Chinese REITs might potentially be available

Consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring—the way of assessing risk in consumer finance—and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/

Correlation, price discovery and co-movement of ABS and equity

Asset-backed securitization (ABS) has become a viable and increasingly attractive risk management and refinancing method either as a standalone form of structured finance or as securitized debt in Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO). However, the absence of industry standardization has prevented rising investment demand from translating into market liquidity comparable to traditional fixed income instruments, in all but a few selected market segments. Particularly low financial transparency and complex security designs inhibits profound analysis of secondary market pricing and how it relates to established forms of external finance. This paper represents the first attempt to measure the intertemporal, bivariate causal relationship between matched price series of equity and ABS issued by the same entity. In a two-dimensional linear system of simultaneous equations we investigate the short-term dynamics and long-term consistency of daily secondary market data from the U.K. Sterling ABS/MBS market and exchange traded shares between 1998 and 2004 with and without the presence of cointegration. Our causality framework delivers compelling empirical support for a strong co-movement between matched price series of ABS-equity pairs, where ABS markets seem to contribute more to price discovery over the long run. Controlling for cointegration, risk-free interest and average market risk of corporate debt hardly alters our results. However, once we qualify the magnitude and direction of price discovery on various security characteristics, such as the ABS asset class, we find that ABS-equity pairs with large-scale CMBS/RMBS and credit card/student loan ABS reveal stronger lead-lag relationships and joint price dynamics than whole business ABS. JEL Classifications: G10, G12, G2

Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ

Towards a Comprehensible and Accurate Credit Management Model: Application of four Computational Intelligence Methodologies

The paper presents methods for classification of applicants into different categories of credit risk using four different computational intelligence techniques. The selected methodologies involved in the rule-based categorization task are (1) feedforward neural networks trained with second order methods (2) inductive machine learning, (3) hierarchical decision trees produced by grammar-guided genetic programming and (4) fuzzy rule based systems produced by grammar-guided genetic programming. The data used are both numerical and linguistic in nature and they represent a real-world problem, that of deciding whether a loan should be granted or not, in respect to financial details of customers applying for that loan, to a specific private EU bank. We examine the proposed classification models with a sample of enterprises that applied for a loan, each of which is described by financial decision variables (ratios), and classified to one of the four predetermined classes. Attention is given to the comprehensibility and the ease of use for the acquired decision models. Results show that the application of the proposed methods can make the classification task easier and - in some cases - may minimize significantly the amount of required credit data. We consider that these methodologies may also give the chance for the extraction of a comprehensible credit management model or even the incorporation of a related decision support system in bankin

Credit default swaps:what are the social benefi ts and costs?

Credit default swaps (CDSs) are derivative contracts that allow agents to shift the risk of default on an underlying credit from a credit protection buyer to a credit protection seller. Like other derivatives they are standardised relative to the underlying cash markets and in this way can help promote market liquidity. This in turn can facilitate risk shifting and price discovery. In this way they may lead to accurate pricing of credit risk and ultimately to the reduced costs of borrowing. However, like other derivatives it is possible that CDS contracts could play a part in market manipulations, especially when the underlying cash market is not transparent. This is a potential cost of CDS trading that should be weighed against potential benefi ts of liquidity, risk shifting and price discovery. We discuss the balance of these trade-offs in the context of singlename corporate CDSs, index CDSs, sovereign CDSs and CDSs on structured credit product tranches. We also discuss other potential costs of CDS trading including that they “make selling short too cheap” and that they may create market instability by facilitating speculative attacks.

Shared Value in Chile: Increasing Private Sector Competitiveness by Solving Social Problems

Over the last few decades, Chile has experienced rapid and sustained economic, social, and institutional development. Crucial challenges remain, however, in the form of social inequity, lack of opportunity, mistrust, and social unrest. The Chilean private sector is at an inflection point in its relationship with society. The corporate sector has both contributed to and benefited from the growth and development of the last decades, but remaining social challenges pose significant constraints to the continued growth of the private sector. High levels of mistrust regarding the role of business in society reflect a widespread belief that profit making activities are merely a demonstration of corporate greed. The Chilean private sector faces a frequently antagonistic relationship with government and civil society that will likely worsen unless companies are able to find ways to authentically link their businesses to efforts to solve Chile's social problems. On the other hand, if government and civil society conclude that the private sector has no contribution to make to the country's social and economic development strategy, Chile will squander an important engine for creating shared prosperity. The good news is that there does not need to be a trade-off between private sector competitiveness and greater prosperity for all Chileans. Shared value, a concept explained in Harvard Professor Michael Porter and Mark Kramer's Harvard Business Review articles, suggests an approach for companies to increase their competitiveness and profitability by helping to solve social problems. The public sector and civil society can increase the social benefits from shared value by thoughtfully partnering with the private secto

Crisis' Heritage Management - New Business Opportunities Out of the Financial Collapse

This paper intends to present the opportunities emerging for the national economy, out of the financial crisis. In particular the management of those, which arise from the commercial real estate owned property sector, defined by the author as crisis heritage management. On one hand, as real estate property prices are subject of wide fluctuations, the longer possession of such assets can seriously impact the financial condition of the already shattered financial institutions, but on the on other - with the help of professional and proactive management, and the right kind of attitude by all the stakeholders, the heritage left out of the financial collapse, can not only help stabilize the system - bringing liquidity into it, but can also support its healthy corporate governance in the long-term. The properties themselves (business buildings, warehouses, retail-and-office spaces), being an object of optimization of maintenance costs, re-engineering, intensive marketing, as a result of the crisis, can serve as a solid base for number of new and profitable business and investment opportunities, described in the article, as a proof of the healing effect of the financial crisis and the second chance it gives.Comment: Presented at the 2013 Sofia Business School Master Classes in Global Risks Managemen