17,636 research outputs found
Interpretable Subgroup Discovery in Treatment Effect Estimation with Application to Opioid Prescribing Guidelines
The dearth of prescribing guidelines for physicians is one key driver of the
current opioid epidemic in the United States. In this work, we analyze medical
and pharmaceutical claims data to draw insights on characteristics of patients
who are more prone to adverse outcomes after an initial synthetic opioid
prescription. Toward this end, we propose a generative model that allows
discovery from observational data of subgroups that demonstrate an enhanced or
diminished causal effect due to treatment. Our approach models these
sub-populations as a mixture distribution, using sparsity to enhance
interpretability, while jointly learning nonlinear predictors of the potential
outcomes to better adjust for confounding. The approach leads to
human-interpretable insights on discovered subgroups, improving the practical
utility for decision suppor
backShift: Learning causal cyclic graphs from unknown shift interventions
We propose a simple method to learn linear causal cyclic models in the
presence of latent variables. The method relies on equilibrium data of the
model recorded under a specific kind of interventions ("shift interventions").
The location and strength of these interventions do not have to be known and
can be estimated from the data. Our method, called backShift, only uses second
moments of the data and performs simple joint matrix diagonalization, applied
to differences between covariance matrices. We give a sufficient and necessary
condition for identifiability of the system, which is fulfilled almost surely
under some quite general assumptions if and only if there are at least three
distinct experimental settings, one of which can be pure observational data. We
demonstrate the performance on some simulated data and applications in flow
cytometry and financial time series. The code is made available as R-package
backShift
Learning Adjustment Sets from Observational and Limited Experimental Data
Estimating causal effects from observational data is not always possible due
to confounding. Identifying a set of appropriate covariates (adjustment set)
and adjusting for their influence can remove confounding bias; however, such a
set is typically not identifiable from observational data alone. Experimental
data do not have confounding bias, but are typically limited in sample size and
can therefore yield imprecise estimates. Furthermore, experimental data often
include a limited set of covariates, and therefore provide limited insight into
the causal structure of the underlying system. In this work we introduce a
method that combines large observational and limited experimental data to
identify adjustment sets and improve the estimation of causal effects. The
method identifies an adjustment set (if possible) by calculating the marginal
likelihood for the experimental data given observationally-derived prior
probabilities of potential adjustmen sets. In this way, the method can make
inferences that are not possible using only the conditional dependencies and
independencies in all the observational and experimental data. We show that the
method successfully identifies adjustment sets and improves causal effect
estimation in simulated data, and it can sometimes make additional inferences
when compared to state-of-the-art methods for combining experimental and
observational data.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure
Avoiding Discrimination through Causal Reasoning
Recent work on fairness in machine learning has focused on various
statistical discrimination criteria and how they trade off. Most of these
criteria are observational: They depend only on the joint distribution of
predictor, protected attribute, features, and outcome. While convenient to work
with, observational criteria have severe inherent limitations that prevent them
from resolving matters of fairness conclusively.
Going beyond observational criteria, we frame the problem of discrimination
based on protected attributes in the language of causal reasoning. This
viewpoint shifts attention from "What is the right fairness criterion?" to
"What do we want to assume about the causal data generating process?" Through
the lens of causality, we make several contributions. First, we crisply
articulate why and when observational criteria fail, thus formalizing what was
before a matter of opinion. Second, our approach exposes previously ignored
subtleties and why they are fundamental to the problem. Finally, we put forward
natural causal non-discrimination criteria and develop algorithms that satisfy
them.Comment: Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 30, 2017
http://papers.nips.cc/paper/6668-avoiding-discrimination-through-causal-reasonin
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