The wisdom of collective grading and the effects of epistemic and semantic diversity

A computer simulation is used to study collective judgements that an expert panel reaches on the basis of qualitative probability judgements contributed by individual members. The simulated panel displays a strong and robust crowd wisdom effect. The panel's performance is better when members contribute precise probability estimates instead of qualitative judgements, but not by much. Surprisingly, it doesn't always hurt for panel members to interpret the probability expressions differently. Indeed, coordinating their understandings can be much worse

Lenience breeds strictness: the generosity-erosion effect in hiring decisions

In recruitment processes, candidates are often judged one after another. This sequential procedure affects the outcome of the process. Here, we introduce the generosity-erosion effect, which states that evaluators might be harsher in their assessment of candidates after grading previous candidates generously. Generosity is defined as giving a candidate the lowest possible grade required to progress in the hiring process. Analyzing a high-stake hiring process, we find that for each candidate graded generously, the probability for subsequent candidates to pass decreased by 7.7% (Experiment 1; N=11,281). Testing the boundary conditions of the generosity-effect, we explore a hiring process that, in contrast to the previous process, was very selective, since candidates were more likely to fail than to pass. In this scenario, no evidence is found for the generosity-erosion effect (Experiment 2; N=3,171). Practical implications and mechanisms underlying the generosity-erosion effect are further discussed

Democracy under uncertainty: The ‘wisdom of crowds’ and the free-rider problem in group decision making

We introduce a game theory model of individual decisions to cooperate by contributing personal resources to group decisions versus by free-riding on the contributions of other members. In contrast to most public-goods games that assume group returns are linear in individual contributions, the present model assumes decreasing marginal group production as a function of aggregate individual contributions. This diminishing marginal returns assumption is more realistic and generates starkly different predictions compared to the linear model. One important implication is that, under most conditions, there exist equilibria where some, but not all members of a group contribute, even with completely self-interested motives. An agent-based simulation confirms the individual and group advantages of the equilibria in which behavioral asymmetry emerges from a game structure that is a priori perfectly symmetric for all agents (all agents have the same payoff function and action space, but take different actions in equilibria). And a behavioral experiment demonstrates that cooperators and free-riders coexist in a stable manner in groups performing with the non-linear production function. A collateral result demonstrates that, compared to a ―dictatorial‖ decision scheme guided by the best member in a group, the majority-plurality decision rules can pool information effectively and produce greater individual net welfare at equilibrium, even if free-riding is not sanctioned. This is an original proof that cooperation in ad hoc decision-making groups can be understood in terms of self-interested motivations and that, despite the free-rider problem, majority-plurality decision rules can function robustly as simple, efficient social decision heuristics.group decision making under uncertainty, free-rider problem, majority-plurality rules, marginally-diminishing group returns, evolutionary games, behavioral experiment

Secularism and the Gujarat state: 1960-2005

Secularism has been a defining norm for the modern, liberal Indian state. The constitutionally secular Gujarat state is believed to have undergone a paradigmatic shift in 2002, when it supported a massacre of Muslim citizens. This essay investigates the empirical as well as normative state in situations of inter-religious violence. It traces the journey of the secular norm over a 45-year period, in the context of contests over identity, political ideology and socio-political dominance. The picture that emerges is much more nuanced than that projected by stark pronouncements of paradigm shifts and the inauguration of a Hindu rashtra.

The limits and merits of participation

The goal of economic development is to increase growth and eliminate poverty. Recently, the goal has been broadened to include promoting participatory governance. Arguably, participation, for example, in community water committees, produces two desirable outcomes: democratic processes and better-targeted, more efficiently delivered public services. Participation is desirable as an end in itself, as a means of sharing resources, control, and responsibility within the social group. Yet participation is not always related to democracy. Fascism was a participatory, grassroots political movement. Participation is as much a problem as it is a solution, as much a goal as a tool. It is a problem when it is disorderly and if it is assumed to be a substitute for democratic representation. It is a solution when it changes conflict into negotiated losses. Participation can make development assistance more effective, but it works best for groups that are already participatory; for groups that can already help themselves. The recent literature on the effectiveness of foreign aid to developing countries presents an interesting analogy. Most foreign aid is useless. The only part that really helps development is that which follows rather than precedes policy change. Similarly, participation seems to work well only when the institutions of participation are in place before the need they address arises and when the institutions are compatible with the need s objectives. These conditions are not easily met. Discussions of participation cannot ignore issues of political power, local power, populism, and representation. They cannot ignore issues of moral pluralism (the verity of ways in which people value their lives) or cultural diversity. They cannot dismiss the ways in which people can be blocked from better lives by the beliefs of their cultures. They cannot avoid the pressure that a dominant group may exert to forgesolutions that are morally unacceptable. These problems are not irrelevant or unimportant. Efforts to promote participation would seem strikingly banal were the history of development efforts not replete with failures to achieve participation where it would have made a difference. It has typically been assumed that people, especially poor people, lack the competence to decide for themselves. Similarly, the failures of participation would seem strikingly banal if people, especfially those we are interested in, behaved the way we expected them to. But people do not behave as expected. Their interests may not be in the collective interest, and thier goals may not coincide with broader social goals.Economic Theory&Research,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Labor Policies,Decentralization,Health Economics&Finance,Governance Indicators,Environmental Economics&Policies,ICT Policy and Strategies,Economic Theory&Research

Complementary or Conflictual? Formal Participation, Informal Participation, and Organizational Performance

Most studies of worker participation examine either formal participatory structures or informal participation. Yet, increasingly, works councils and other formal participatory bodies are operating in parallel with collective bargaining or are filling the void left by its decline. Moreover, these bodies are sprouting in workplaces in which workers have long held a modicum of influence, authority, and production- or service-related information. This study leverages a case from the healthcare sector to examine the interaction between formal and informal worker participation. Seeking to determine whether or not these two forces—each independently shown to benefit production or service delivery—complement or undermine one another, we find evidence for the latter. In the case of the 27 primary care departments that we study, formal structures appeared to help less participatory departments improve their performance. However, these same structures also appeared to impede those departments with previously high levels of informal participation. While we remain cautious with respect to generalizability, the case serves as a warning to those seeking to institute participation in an environment in which some workers have long felt they had the requisite authority, influence, and information necessary to perform their jobs effectively

Election by Lot and the Democratic Diarchy

This thesis argues that ‘democracy’ can better be understood in terms of a conceptual diarchy of ‘isonomia’ (equal political rights) and ‘isegoria’ (equal speech rights), rather than the conventional diarchy of ‘will’ and ‘opinion’ that originated in the era of absolute monarchy. As the proposed diarchy has its origin in classical Greece, the thesis starts with a brief overview of the institutional changes in sixth-, fifth- and fourth-century Athenian democracy that implemented the distinction in different ways, and examines some of its dysfunctions. The particular aspect of Athenian democracy under focus is sortition – the random selection of citizens for public office – viewed in antiquity as democratic, whereas election was viewed as an aristocratic or oligarchic selection mechanism. The thesis takes issue with Bernard Manin’s claim that the ‘triumph of election’ was on account of the natural right theory of consent, arguing that sortition-based proxy representation is a better way of indicating (hypothetical) consent than preference election. The thesis then seeks to clarify the concept(s) of representation – essential to the implementation of the democratic diarchy in modern large-scale societies – and to study how the diarchy has been reincarnated in modern representative democracies, along with an examination of the pathologies thereof. Consideration is given as to what the deliberative style of assemblies selected by lot should be, alongside evaluation of the epistemic potential of cognitive diversity and the ‘wisdom of crowds’. Given the need for both isonomia and isegoria to assume a representative form in large modern states, Michael Saward’s Representative Claim is adopted as a theoretical model to extend the reach of political representation beyond elections. The thesis concludes with tentative proposals as to how the fourth-century reforms (delegation of the final lawmaking decision to randomly-selected nomothetic courts) might be used as a template for modern institutions to resolve some of the problems of mass democracy

Protective behaviours and secondary harms from non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa: a multisite prospective longitudinal study

BACKGROUND: In March 2020 South Africa implemented strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to contain Covid-19. Over the subsequent five months NPIs were eased in stages according to national strategy. Covid-19 spread throughout the country heterogeneously, reaching rural areas by July and peaking in July-August. Data on the impact of NPI policies on social and economic wellbeing and access to healthcare is limited. We therefore analysed how rural residents of three South African provinces changed their behaviour during the first epidemic wave. METHODS: The South African Population Research Infrastructure Network (SAPRIN) nodes in Mpumalanga (Agincourt), KwaZulu-Natal (AHRI) and Limpopo (DIMAMO) provinces conducted longitudinal telephone surveys among randomly sampled households from rural and peri-urban surveillance populations every 2-3 weeks. Interviews included questions on: Covid-19 knowledge and behaviours; health and economic impact of NPIs; and mental health. RESULTS: 2262 households completed 10,966 interviews between April and August 2020. By August, self-reported satisfaction with Covid-19 knowledge had risen from 48% to 85% and facemask use to over 95%. As selected NPIs were eased mobility increased, and economic losses and anxiety and depression symptoms fell. When Covid-19 cases spiked at one node in July, movement dropped rapidly, and missed daily medication rates doubled. Economic concerns and mental health symptoms were lower in households receiving a greater number of government-funded old-age pensions. CONCLUSIONS: South Africans reported complying with stringent Covid-19 NPIs despite the threat of substantial social, economic and health repercussions. Government-supported social welfare programmes appeared to buffer interruptions in income and healthcare access during local outbreaks. Epidemic control policies must be balanced against impacts on wellbeing in resource-limited settings and designed with parallel support systems where they threaten income and basic service access