Catching Card Counters

The casino industry has been researched through a variety of disciplines including psychological gambling habits, technological advances, business strategies, and mathematical simulations. In the vast number of studies that have been conducted, there are few scholarly articles that focus on the specific aspect of card counting. The majority of games in the casino are designed to favor the “house”. This study focuses on the game of blackjack, in which players using a card counting strategy can tip the odds in their favor. A computer simulation was used to model the betting strategy of a card counter who would bet methodically. Conversely, the unpredictable betting strategy of a “normal” gambler was gathered through observations of over one thousands hands of blackjack. The comparison of the two led to deviations in behavior and betting habits. An understanding of these differences will provide a casino with additional information to catch card counters at the table

Detecting short periods of elevated workload. A compari­son of nine workload assessment techniques

The present experiment tested the merits of 9 common workload assessment techniques with relatively short periods of workload in a car-driving task. Twelve participants drove an instrumented car and performed a visually loading task and a mentally loading task for 10, 30, and 60 s. The results show that 10-s periods of visual and mental workload can be measured successfully with subjective ratings and secondary task performance. With respect to longer loading periods (30 and 60 s), steering frequency was found to be sensitive to visual workload, and skin conductance response (SCR) was sensitive to mental workload. The results lead to preliminary guidelines that will help applied researchers to determine which techniques are best suited for assessing visual and mental workload

Pure point diffraction implies zero entropy for Delone sets with uniform cluster frequencies

Delone sets of finite local complexity in Euclidean space are investigated. We show that such a set has patch counting and topological entropy 0 if it has uniform cluster frequencies and is pure point diffractive. We also note that the patch counting entropy is 0 whenever the repetitivity function satisfies a certain growth restriction.Comment: 16 pages; revised and slightly expanded versio

Rare Event Simulation and Splitting for Discontinuous Random Variables

Multilevel Splitting methods, also called Sequential Monte-Carlo or \emph{Subset Simulation}, are widely used methods for estimating extreme probabilities of the form $P[S(\mathbf{U}) > q]$ where $S$ is a deterministic real-valued function and $\mathbf{U}$ can be a random finite- or infinite-dimensional vector. Very often, $X := S(\mathbf{U})$ is supposed to be a continuous random variable and a lot of theoretical results on the statistical behaviour of the estimator are now derived with this hypothesis. However, as soon as some threshold effect appears in $S$ and/or $\mathbf{U}$ is discrete or mixed discrete/continuous this assumption does not hold any more and the estimator is not consistent. In this paper, we study the impact of discontinuities in the \emph{cdf} of $X$ and present three unbiased \emph{corrected} estimators to handle them. These estimators do not require to know in advance if $X$ is actually discontinuous or not and become all equal if $X$ is continuous. Especially, one of them has the same statistical properties in any case. Efficiency is shown on a 2-D diffusive process as well as on the \emph{Boolean SATisfiability problem} (SAT).Comment: 16 pages (12 + Appendix 4 pages), 6 figure

Counting arcs in negative curvature

Let M be a complete Riemannian manifold with negative curvature, and let C_-, C_+ be two properly immersed closed convex subsets of M. We survey the asymptotic behaviour of the number of common perpendiculars of length at most s from C_- to C_+, giving error terms and counting with weights, starting from the work of Huber, Herrmann, Margulis and ending with the works of the authors. We describe the relationship with counting problems in circle packings of Kontorovich, Oh, Shah. We survey the tools used to obtain the precise asymptotics (Bowen-Margulis and Gibbs measures, skinning measures). We describe several arithmetic applications, in particular the ones by the authors on the asymptotics of the number of representations of integers by binary quadratic, Hermitian or Hamiltonian forms.Comment: Revised version, 44 page

A version of Herbert A. Simon's model with slowly fading memory and its connections to branching processes

Construct recursively a long string of words w1. .. wn, such that at each step k, w k+1 is a new word with a fixed probability p $\in$ (0, 1), and repeats some preceding word with complementary probability 1 -- p. More precisely, given a repetition occurs, w k+1 repeats the j-th word with probability proportional to j $\alpha$ for j = 1,. .. , k. We show that the proportion of distinct words occurring exactly times converges as the length n of the string goes to infinity to some probability mass function in the variable $\ge$ 1, whose tail decays as a power function when 1 -- p > $\alpha$/(1 + $\alpha$), and exponentially fast when 1 -- p < $\alpha$/(1 + $\alpha$)

Real-time extraction of growth rates from rotating substrates during molecular-beam epitaxy

We present a method for measuring molecular‐beam epitaxy growth rates in near real‐time on rotating substrates. This is done by digitizing a video image of the reflection high‐energy electron diffraction screen, automatically tracking and measuring the specular spot width, and using numerical techniques to filter the resulting signal. The digitization and image and signal processing take approximately 0.4 s to accomplish, so this technique offers the molecular‐beam epitaxy grower the ability to actively adjust growth times in order to deposit a desired layer thickness. The measurement has a demonstrated precision of approximately 2%, which is sufficient to allow active control of epilayer thickness by counting monolayers as they are deposited. When postgrowth techniques, such as frequency domain analysis, are also used, the reflection high‐energy electron diffraction measurement of layer thickness on rotating substrates improves to a precision of better than 1%. Since all of the components in the system described are commercially available, duplication is straightforward