The COVID recession: what does it mean?

Yesterday saw the release of long-awaited figures on the UK economy. They confirmed what we all knew: there has been a massive slump in output and we have been in a recession. In fact, this slump has been the largest amongst our European and global peers, a fact I shall revisit later in this blog.Yet all is not necessarily as it seems. Superficial comparisons to previous recessions suggest that the severity of the current situation is off-the-scale. Tohighlight just a few of the figures given by the Office for National Statistics, the estimated quarterly fall in GDP (20.4%) is an order of magnitude greater than the second largest fall (2.7%) since modern records began in 1955. For context, the largest quarterly fall in 2008/9 was 2.0%

The boosted HP filter is more general than you might think

The global financial crisis and Covid recession have renewed discussion concerning trend-cycle discovery in macroeconomic data, and boosting has recently upgraded the popular HP filter to a modern machine learning device suited to data-rich and rapid computational environments. This paper sheds light on its versatility in trend-cycle determination, explaining in a simple manner both HP filter smoothing and the consistency delivered by boosting for general trend detection. Applied to a universe of time series in FRED databases, boosting outperforms other methods in timely capturing downturns at crises and recoveries that follow. With its wide applicability the boosted HP filter is a useful automated machine learning addition to the macroeconometric toolkit

Temping fates in Spain:Hours and employment in a dual labor market during the Great Recession and COVID-19

We investigate the behavior of aggregate hours supplied by workers in permanent (open-ended) contracts and temporary contracts, distinguishing changes in employment (extensive margin) and hours per worker (intensive margin). We focus on the differences between the Great Recession and the start of the COVID-19 Recession. In the Great Recession, the loss in aggregate hours is largely accounted for by employment losses (hours per worker did not adjust) and initially mainly by workers in temporary contracts. In contrast, in the early stages of the COVID-19 Recession, approximately sixty percent of the drop in aggregate hours is accounted for by permanent workers that do not only adjust hours per worker (beyond average) but also face employment losses—accounting for one-third of the total employment losses in the economy. We argue that our comparison across recessions allows for a more general discussion on the impact of adjustment frictions in the dual labor market and the effects policy, in particular the short-time work policy (ERTE) in Spain

County-Level Unemployment Dynamics Following The Covid Recession: The Effects Of PPP Loan Take Up

The COVID-19 pandemic caused a nationwide shutdown, dragging the US into a recession. To combat the effects of the pandemic on the economy, Congress created the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) with the focus of preserving jobs and providing liquidity to small businesses. PPP created low-interest, forgivable business loans with forgiveness tied to a few benchmarks, providing a de facto cash transfer to small businesses. Did PPP preserve jobs? When examining Mississippi, this paper shows that counties with high cyclical unemployment participated more intensely in the program. Furthermore, the research shows that as loan totals grew within a county, local labor markets recovered. As such, this paper concludes that PPP did help preserve jobs

Starbucks Strategic Analysis

Starbucks is a multinational chain of coffee shops and roasteries that was founded in 1971. Starbucks has continued to grow for the past 51 years and continues to dominate the coffee industry. This strategic analysis evaluates the general environment using a PESTEL analysis, the industry using Porter’s Five Forces, and the company’s overall strategy and competitive advantages. This paper will evaluate Starbucks’ position in the industry and the strategic choices that have led the company to its extraordinary success

RISE OF FACEBOOK, AMAZON, APPLE, NETFLIX, GOOGLE DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC

FAANG is an acronym for Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Alphabet (which was previously known as Google), the five most important technology giants in the United States. The technology breakthroughs of these companies have had a significant impact on global economies, since they create jobs, link people, supply goods, and generate entertainment. As a result, a detailed analysis of FAANG stocks adds to the existing body of knowledge. Furthermore, because stock markets are very volatile and are influenced by a variety of known and unknown causes, it is vital to employ adequate tools for assessing their behavior (Jadhav et al., 2021). The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been spreading over the world since the end of 2019. The first case of COVID-19 was discovered in Wuhan, a city in China, in December 2019. The World Health Organization (WHO) initially issued a global notice on COVID-19 on January 30, 2020(WHO 2020a). The WHO declared it a pandemic as the number of confirmed cases grew to 118,319 cases on March 11th 2020 around the world. Some researchers and media sites commented in March 2020 on how this dreadful epidemic would damage the economies of the afflicted countries (He et al., 2020). Unemployment in the US was on a rise during the pandemic as lockdowns were imposed in various states and small businesses like restaurants, coffee shops, General stores, shopping malls, and massage parlors were forced to shut down for an uncertain amount of time. Public gatherings were banned, and businesses were forced to carry out operations online. For the businesses mentioned above, it was not possible to conduct operations online since they require people to go to the physical location to conduct business. Despite these tough times, FAANG companies thrived and their business grew despite the ongoing pandemic (Hobbs,2020)

Constitution Day Event 2020

The Constitution Day Event was held on September 15, 2020 and was presented by LeAnn Dean, Roland Guyotte, Tim Lindberg, and Roger Rose. Included here are Roger Rose\u27s powerpoint presentation titled: The Constitution: Why Our Shared Values are Important, LeAnn Dean\u27s remarks, and Roland Guyotte\u27s remarks.https://digitalcommons.morris.umn.edu/special_events/1009/thumbnail.jp

An LSE action plan for a strong and sustainable recovery

What does ‘building back better’ actually mean? Nicholas Stern, Sam Unsworth, Anna Valero, Dimitri Zenghelis, James Rydge and Nick Robins (LSE) set out the actions the government needs to take to deliver a sustainable recovery

Australian Industrial Relations through Covid19/Les relations industrielles au travers de la COVID-19 en Australie

The public health effects of COVID-19 were less severe in Australia than elsewhere. Successful containment of the pandemic made an early recovery more feasible, though the impact on the economy and jobs, was initially considerable and uneven. A wage subsidy was introduced in response to pressure from social partners, and a form of social dialogue was surprisingly encouraged by the Liberal-National Coalition to facilitate an industrial relations reform program. However, such dialogue seemed difficult to sustain in light of the other aspects of its agenda. The so-called "Omnibus Bill" proposed the Government late 2020 still under discussion in the legislative arena is opposed by trade unions in a "Stop the Bus!" campaign. We will present the major points of contention with an emphasis on the notion of status of employment, noting that the Bill lays the ground for employers to enshrine "permanent casual" modes of employment relationship. Contractual ("bogus" or "sham") and casual forms of employment have become an important feature of the Australian labour market and this in turn has important consequences in terms of working conditions, benefits and rights, the nature of collective coverage and access to collective representation

Book Review: The British Betrayal of Childhood: Challenging Uncomfortable Truths and Bringing About Change

This review of The British Betrayal of Childhood: Challenging Uncomfortable Truths and Bringing About Change focuses on the effects of British policies on the lives of children today. The book is divided into three parts. Part 1, Why should we be concerned about children?, provides an historical perspective on children\u27s lives and contemporary international comparisons. Part 2, Childhood in the UK today, describes the currents condition of childhood in Britain, critiques social and political policies that have contributed to the betrayal of children, and identifies the main failures. Part 3, offers strategies for change. The review elaborates on the each section of the book and concludes by criticising the author\u27s lack of emphasis on the importance of play on the children\u27s health and well-being