From the Hands of an Early Adopter's Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods' Lifetime Survival

One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In "real" economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods' circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to "real life" and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters.Comment: 28 page

Improving the Parallel Execution of Behavior Trees

Behavior Trees (BTs) have become a popular framework for designing controllers of autonomous agents in the computer game and in the robotics industry. One of the key advantages of BTs lies in their modularity, where independent modules can be composed to create more complex ones. In the classical formulation of BTs, modules can be composed using one of the three operators: Sequence, Fallback, and Parallel. The Parallel operator is rarely used despite its strong potential against other control architectures as Finite State Machines. This is due to the fact that concurrent actions may lead to unexpected problems similar to the ones experienced in concurrent programming. In this paper, we introduce Concurrent BTs (CBTs) as a generalization of BTs in which we introduce the notions of progress and resource usage. We show how CBTs allow safe concurrent executions of actions and we analyze the approach from a mathematical standpoint. To illustrate the use of CBTs, we provide a set of use cases in robotics scenarios

Human gesture classification by brute-force machine learning for exergaming in physiotherapy

In this paper, a novel approach for human gesture classification on skeletal data is proposed for the application of exergaming in physiotherapy. Unlike existing methods, we propose to use a general classifier like Random Forests to recognize dynamic gestures. The temporal dimension is handled afterwards by majority voting in a sliding window over the consecutive predictions of the classifier. The gestures can have partially similar postures, such that the classifier will decide on the dissimilar postures. This brute-force classification strategy is permitted, because dynamic human gestures show sufficient dissimilar postures. Online continuous human gesture recognition can classify dynamic gestures in an early stage, which is a crucial advantage when controlling a game by automatic gesture recognition. Also, ground truth can be easily obtained, since all postures in a gesture get the same label, without any discretization into consecutive postures. This way, new gestures can be easily added, which is advantageous in adaptive game development. We evaluate our strategy by a leave-one-subject-out cross-validation on a self-captured stealth game gesture dataset and the publicly available Microsoft Research Cambridge-12 Kinect (MSRC-12) dataset. On the first dataset we achieve an excellent accuracy rate of 96.72%. Furthermore, we show that Random Forests perform better than Support Vector Machines. On the second dataset we achieve an accuracy rate of 98.37%, which is on average 3.57% better then existing methods

Behavior Trees in Robotics and AI: An Introduction

A Behavior Tree (BT) is a way to structure the switching between different tasks in an autonomous agent, such as a robot or a virtual entity in a computer game. BTs are a very efficient way of creating complex systems that are both modular and reactive. These properties are crucial in many applications, which has led to the spread of BT from computer game programming to many branches of AI and Robotics. In this book, we will first give an introduction to BTs, then we describe how BTs relate to, and in many cases generalize, earlier switching structures. These ideas are then used as a foundation for a set of efficient and easy to use design principles. Properties such as safety, robustness, and efficiency are important for an autonomous system, and we describe a set of tools for formally analyzing these using a state space description of BTs. With the new analysis tools, we can formalize the descriptions of how BTs generalize earlier approaches. We also show the use of BTs in automated planning and machine learning. Finally, we describe an extended set of tools to capture the behavior of Stochastic BTs, where the outcomes of actions are described by probabilities. These tools enable the computation of both success probabilities and time to completion