Agent Behavior Prediction and Its Generalization Analysis

Machine learning algorithms have been applied to predict agent behaviors in real-world dynamic systems, such as advertiser behaviors in sponsored search and worker behaviors in crowdsourcing. The behavior data in these systems are generated by live agents: once the systems change due to the adoption of the prediction models learnt from the behavior data, agents will observe and respond to these changes by changing their own behaviors accordingly. As a result, the behavior data will evolve and will not be identically and independently distributed, posing great challenges to the theoretical analysis on the machine learning algorithms for behavior prediction. To tackle this challenge, in this paper, we propose to use Markov Chain in Random Environments (MCRE) to describe the behavior data, and perform generalization analysis of the machine learning algorithms on its basis. Since the one-step transition probability matrix of MCRE depends on both previous states and the random environment, conventional techniques for generalization analysis cannot be directly applied. To address this issue, we propose a novel technique that transforms the original MCRE into a higher-dimensional time-homogeneous Markov chain. The new Markov chain involves more variables but is more regular, and thus easier to deal with. We prove the convergence of the new Markov chain when time approaches infinity. Then we prove a generalization bound for the machine learning algorithms on the behavior data generated by the new Markov chain, which depends on both the Markovian parameters and the covering number of the function class compounded by the loss function for behavior prediction and the behavior prediction model. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that performs the generalization analysis on data generated by complex processes in real-world dynamic systems

Online Knapsack Problem under Expected Capacity Constraint

Online knapsack problem is considered, where items arrive in a sequential fashion that have two attributes; value and weight. Each arriving item has to be accepted or rejected on its arrival irrevocably. The objective is to maximize the sum of the value of the accepted items such that the sum of their weights is below a budget/capacity. Conventionally a hard budget/capacity constraint is considered, for which variety of results are available. In modern applications, e.g., in wireless networks, data centres, cloud computing, etc., enforcing the capacity constraint in expectation is sufficient. With this motivation, we consider the knapsack problem with an expected capacity constraint. For the special case of knapsack problem, called the secretary problem, where the weight of each item is unity, we propose an algorithm whose probability of selecting any one of the optimal items is equal to $1-1/e$ and provide a matching lower bound. For the general knapsack problem, we propose an algorithm whose competitive ratio is shown to be $1/4e$ that is significantly better than the best known competitive ratio of $1/10e$ for the knapsack problem with the hard capacity constraint.Comment: To appear in IEEE INFOCOM 2018, April 2018, Honolulu H

Multiplicative Bidding in Online Advertising

In this paper, we initiate the study of the multiplicative bidding language adopted by major Internet search companies. In multiplicative bidding, the effective bid on a particular search auction is the product of a base bid and bid adjustments that are dependent on features of the search (for example, the geographic location of the user, or the platform on which the search is conducted). We consider the task faced by the advertiser when setting these bid adjustments, and establish a foundational optimization problem that captures the core difficulty of bidding under this language. We give matching algorithmic and approximation hardness results for this problem; these results are against an information-theoretic bound, and thus have implications on the power of the multiplicative bidding language itself. Inspired by empirical studies of search engine price data, we then codify the relevant restrictions of the problem, and give further algorithmic and hardness results. Our main technical contribution is an $O(\log n)$-approximation for the case of multiplicative prices and monotone values. We also provide empirical validations of our problem restrictions, and test our algorithms on real data against natural benchmarks. Our experiments show that they perform favorably compared with the baseline.Comment: 25 pages; accepted to EC'1

Bid Optimization in Broad-Match Ad auctions

Ad auctions in sponsored search support ``broad match'' that allows an advertiser to target a large number of queries while bidding only on a limited number. While giving more expressiveness to advertisers, this feature makes it challenging to optimize bids to maximize their returns: choosing to bid on a query as a broad match because it provides high profit results in one bidding for related queries which may yield low or even negative profits. We abstract and study the complexity of the {\em bid optimization problem} which is to determine an advertiser's bids on a subset of keywords (possibly using broad match) so that her profit is maximized. In the query language model when the advertiser is allowed to bid on all queries as broad match, we present an linear programming (LP)-based polynomial-time algorithm that gets the optimal profit. In the model in which an advertiser can only bid on keywords, ie., a subset of keywords as an exact or broad match, we show that this problem is not approximable within any reasonable approximation factor unless P=NP. To deal with this hardness result, we present a constant-factor approximation when the optimal profit significantly exceeds the cost. This algorithm is based on rounding a natural LP formulation of the problem. Finally, we study a budgeted variant of the problem, and show that in the query language model, one can find two budget constrained ad campaigns in polynomial time that implement the optimal bidding strategy. Our results are the first to address bid optimization under the broad match feature which is common in ad auctions.Comment: World Wide Web Conference (WWW09), 10 pages, 2 figure