Mining complex trees for hidden fruit : a graph–based computational solution to detect latent criminal networks : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Technology at Massey University, Albany, New Zealand.

The detection of crime is a complex and difficult endeavour. Public and private organisations – focusing on law enforcement, intelligence, and compliance – commonly apply the rational isolated actor approach premised on observability and materiality. This is manifested largely as conducting entity-level risk management sourcing ‘leads’ from reactive covert human intelligence sources and/or proactive sources by applying simple rules-based models. Focusing on discrete observable and material actors simply ignores that criminal activity exists within a complex system deriving its fundamental structural fabric from the complex interactions between actors - with those most unobservable likely to be both criminally proficient and influential. The graph-based computational solution developed to detect latent criminal networks is a response to the inadequacy of the rational isolated actor approach that ignores the connectedness and complexity of criminality. The core computational solution, written in the R language, consists of novel entity resolution, link discovery, and knowledge discovery technology. Entity resolution enables the fusion of multiple datasets with high accuracy (mean F-measure of 0.986 versus competitors 0.872), generating a graph-based expressive view of the problem. Link discovery is comprised of link prediction and link inference, enabling the high-performance detection (accuracy of ~0.8 versus relevant published models ~0.45) of unobserved relationships such as identity fraud. Knowledge discovery uses the fused graph generated and applies the “GraphExtract” algorithm to create a set of subgraphs representing latent functional criminal groups, and a mesoscopic graph representing how this set of criminal groups are interconnected. Latent knowledge is generated from a range of metrics including the “Super-broker” metric and attitude prediction. The computational solution has been evaluated on a range of datasets that mimic an applied setting, demonstrating a scalable (tested on ~18 million node graphs) and performant (~33 hours runtime on a non-distributed platform) solution that successfully detects relevant latent functional criminal groups in around 90% of cases sampled and enables the contextual understanding of the broader criminal system through the mesoscopic graph and associated metadata. The augmented data assets generated provide a multi-perspective systems view of criminal activity that enable advanced informed decision making across the microscopic mesoscopic macroscopic spectrum

Exploiting weaknesses: an approach to counter cartel strategy

The thesis, "Exploiting Weaknesses: An Approach to Counter Cartel Strategy," provided an in-depth case study analysis of Los Zetas transnational criminal network to gain an understanding on its weaknesses and vulnerabilities. The thesis utilized social movement theory to illuminate its mobilizing structure and key essential factors that make Los Zetas vulnerable to disruption. In addition, the study identified Los Zetas' financial support structure to expose its insidious methods. Finally, the thesis utilized social network analysis and geographical information systems to gain an understanding of its organizational networks, deduce possible safe havens, and key terrain of Los Zetas. Ultimately, the employment of the aforementioned theories revealed essential vulnerabilities, which form the essence of a practical disruption policy recommendation against Los Zetas.http://archive.org/details/exploitingweakne1094510682US Army (USA) author

Solidarity beyond Borders - The Relationship Transformation Process between the Kurdish Movement and the Radical Left in Germany

During the 2014 Siege of Kobanê, an unprecedented global solidarity movement with the Kurdish struggle emerged, primarily composed of (radical) left groups. This critical juncture in the fight against the ‘Islamic State’ (IS) significantly influenced the Kurdish movement and was, in part, a product of these solidarity mobilizations. This thesis investigates the genesis, history, and dynamics of this transnational solidarity movement. Focusing on the German case, it examines the process of relationship transformation between the PKK-led Kurdish movement and the radical left within a relational framework. It employs a mechanism-based research strategy to identify mechanisms and their constituent sub-mechanisms in different arenas of interaction, and to compare the evolving dynamics of relationship transformation across different temporal phases, spanning from the early 1980s to the beginning of 2020. This thesis addresses two key research gaps: theoretically, it contributes to the underdeveloped conceptualization of relationship transformation across borders and among movements, synthesising insights from contentious politics, transnationalism, diaspora politics and coalition building literature. Empirically, it investigates an entirely unexplored social movement with a 40-year history. Employing a mixed-method, diachronic-comparative approach, data collection and analysis draw upon multiple methods, including 40 semi-structured interviews, document analysis, and participatory observation. Ultimately, the thesis proposes three pathways of relationship transformation: the attribution of similarity, the attribution of threat and the formation of a transnational space. In sum it traces the solidarity movements with Kurdistan as a process of relationship transformation between a diaspora movement and the alliance system, elucidating their mutual relational dynamics

Factional Politics and Credit Networks in Revolutionary Vermont

Studies of state formation tend to emphasize the demise of localism through centralization. This article empirically specifies the social structural conditions that strengthen localism under state formation. The historical case is the creation of Vermont during the Revolutionary War and the local factionalism it involved. Probate records are used to reconstruct credit networks that provided the relational foundation for localism and factional identities. The evidence demonstrates that network segregation between factional regions intensified over time, and was supported by strong cohesion within these regions. Local brokers who forged cohesion within factions consistently attained important political offices while mediators between opposing factions increasingly failed to obtain offices. This structural process coincided with the shift of Vermont's domestic politics into national level conflicts between Federalists and Jeffersonians. Within this escalation local and national factions crystallized around equivalent pairs of binary categorical oppositions. The evocation of national politics directly resonated with local lines of conflict, and reinforced factional identities and localism

Whom to Listen to? Trusted Source and Retweet Behavior of the NYC Marathon and Hawaii False Alarm

Terror attacks disturb social order, and impact the communications between stakeholders. Responsible organizations seek to learn the rules of public information dissemination, thus better manage the crisis communication during terror attack. Guided by social capital theory, this study took the 2017 NYC marathon attack and Hawaii false missile alarm as examples and examined which sources the public trusts most during varying phases of terror threats. The study also explored the content of the most retweeted crisis communication information, in an aim to facilitate better communications between emergency responders and the public, which would help the organizations actively accumulate social capital in the long term. Keywords: Terrorism Attack, Crisis Communication, Social Capital, Social Network, Social Medi

A Connected World: Social Networks and Organizations

This Element synthesizes the current state of research on organizational social networks from its early foundations to contemporary debates. It highlights the characteristics that make the social network perspective distinctive in the organizational research landscape, including its emphasis on structure and outcomes. It covers the main theoretical developments and summarizes the research design questions that organizational researchers face when collecting and analyzing network data. Then, it discusses current debates ranging from agency and structure to network volatility and personality. Finally, the Element envisages future research directions on the role of brokerage for individuals and communities, network cognition, and the importance of past ties. Overall, the Element provides an innovative angle for understanding organizational social networks, engaging in empirical network research, and nurturing further theoretical development on the role of social interactions and connectedness in modern organizations

Mathematics

The inherent complexity of criminal behaviour means that it is not a topic to which the field of mathematics has traditionally been thought to apply. In recent years, however, the study of crime has mirrored that of several other social phenomena in attracting increased attention from within the mathematical community. As well as being facilitated by a dramatic revolution in data availability, this has largely been driven by the growth of mathematical tools designed to confront the challenges presented by such systems; an approach encapsulated by the term ‘complexity science’. This chapter outlines the ways in which mathematical approaches can contribute to the understanding of crime, with particular emphasis on the role of modelling in offering insight into the mechanisms underlying criminal phenomena. A number of mathematical approaches are reviewed in this context, including dynamical systems theory, network science and game theory. Following this, previous research of this type on a number of criminological topics is reviewed, before the chapter concludes by considering the outlook for work in this area and some key issues which remain to be resolved