A computational approach to managing coupled human–environmental systems: the POSEIDON model of ocean fisheries

Sustainable management of complex human–environment systems, and the essential services they provide, remains a major challenge, felt from local to global scales. These systems are typically highly dynamic and hard to predict, particularly in the context of rapid environmental change, where novel sets of conditions drive coupled socio-economic-environmental responses. Faced with these challenges, our tools for policy development, while informed by the past experience, must not be unduly constrained; they must allow equally for both the fine-tuning of successful existing approaches and the generation of novel ones in unbiased ways. We study ocean fisheries as an example class of complex human–environmental systems, and present a new model (POSEIDON) and computational approach to policy design. The model includes an adaptive agent-based representation of a fishing fleet, coupled to a simplified ocean ecology model. The agents (fishing boats) do not have programmed responses based on empirical data, but respond adaptively, as a group, to their environment (including policy constraints). This conceptual model captures qualitatively a wide range of empirically observed fleet behaviour, in response to a broad set of policies. Within this framework, we define policy objectives (of arbitrary complexity) and use Bayesian optimization over multiple model runs to find policy parameters that best meet the goals. The trade-offs inherent in this approach are explored explicitly. Taking this further, optimization is used to generate novel hybrid policies. We illustrate this approach using simulated examples, in which policy prescriptions generated by our computational methods are counterintuitive and thus unlikely to be identified by conventional frameworks

Delayed failure of software components using stochastic testing

The present research investigates the delayed failure of software components and addresses the problem that the conventional approach to software testing is unlikely to reveal this type of failure. Delayed failure is defined as a failure that occurs some time after the condition that causes the failure, and is a consequence of long-latency error propagation. This research seeks to close a perceived gap between academic research into software testing and industrial software testing practice by showing that stochastic testing can reveal delayed failure, and supporting this conclusion by a model of error propagation and failure that has been validated by experiment. The focus of the present research is on software components described by a request-response model. Within this conceptual framework, a Markov chain model of error propagation and failure is used to derive the expected delayed failure behaviour of software components. Results from an experimental study of delayed failure of DBMS software components MySQL and Oracle XE using stochastic testing with random generation of SQL are consistent with expected behaviour based on the Markov chain model. Metrics for failure delay and reliability are shown to depend on the characteristics of the chosen experimental profile. SQL mutation is used to generate negative as well as positive test profiles. There appear to be few systematic studies of delayed failure in the software engineering literature, and no studies of stochastic testing related to delayed failure of software components, or specifically to delayed failure of DBMS. Stochastic testing is shown to be an effective technique for revealing delayed failure of software components, as well as a suitable technique for reliability and robustness testing of software components. These results provide a deeper insight into the testing technique and should lead to further research. Stochastic testing could provide a dependability benchmark for component-based software engineering

IRGC Resource guide on Resilience

An edited collection of authored pieces comparing, contrasting, and integrating risk and resilience with an emphasis on ways to measure resilienc