Blind Construction of Optimal Nonlinear Recursive Predictors for Discrete Sequences

We present a new method for nonlinear prediction of discrete random sequences under minimal structural assumptions. We give a mathematical construction for optimal predictors of such processes, in the form of hidden Markov models. We then describe an algorithm, CSSR (Causal-State Splitting Reconstruction), which approximates the ideal predictor from data. We discuss the reliability of CSSR, its data requirements, and its performance in simulations. Finally, we compare our approach to existing methods using variable-length Markov models and cross-validated hidden Markov models, and show theoretically and experimentally that our method delivers results superior to the former and at least comparable to the latter.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure

A method for inferring hierarchical dynamics in stochastic processes

Complex systems may often be characterized by their hierarchical dynamics. In this paper do we present a method and an operational algorithm that automatically infer this property in a broad range of systems; discrete stochastic processes. The main idea is to systematically explore the set of projections from the state space of a process to smaller state spaces, and to determine which of the projections that impose Markovian dynamics on the coarser level. These projections, which we call Markov projections, then constitute the hierarchical dynamics of the system. The algorithm operates on time series or other statistics, so a priori knowledge of the intrinsic workings of a system is not required in order to determine its hierarchical dynamics. We illustrate the method by applying it to two simple processes; a finite state automaton and an iterated map.Comment: 16 pages, 12 figure

Discovering Functional Communities in Dynamical Networks

Many networks are important because they are substrates for dynamical systems, and their pattern of functional connectivity can itself be dynamic -- they can functionally reorganize, even if their underlying anatomical structure remains fixed. However, the recent rapid progress in discovering the community structure of networks has overwhelmingly focused on that constant anatomical connectivity. In this paper, we lay out the problem of discovering_functional communities_, and describe an approach to doing so. This method combines recent work on measuring information sharing across stochastic networks with an existing and successful community-discovery algorithm for weighted networks. We illustrate it with an application to a large biophysical model of the transition from beta to gamma rhythms in the hippocampus.Comment: 18 pages, 4 figures, Springer "Lecture Notes in Computer Science" style. Forthcoming in the proceedings of the workshop "Statistical Network Analysis: Models, Issues and New Directions", at ICML 2006. Version 2: small clarifications, typo corrections, added referenc

The Computational Structure of Spike Trains

Neurons perform computations, and convey the results of those computations through the statistical structure of their output spike trains. Here we present a practical method, grounded in the information-theoretic analysis of prediction, for inferring a minimal representation of that structure and for characterizing its complexity. Starting from spike trains, our approach finds their causal state models (CSMs), the minimal hidden Markov models or stochastic automata capable of generating statistically identical time series. We then use these CSMs to objectively quantify both the generalizable structure and the idiosyncratic randomness of the spike train. Specifically, we show that the expected algorithmic information content (the information needed to describe the spike train exactly) can be split into three parts describing (1) the time-invariant structure (complexity) of the minimal spike-generating process, which describes the spike train statistically; (2) the randomness (internal entropy rate) of the minimal spike-generating process; and (3) a residual pure noise term not described by the minimal spike-generating process. We use CSMs to approximate each of these quantities. The CSMs are inferred nonparametrically from the data, making only mild regularity assumptions, via the causal state splitting reconstruction algorithm. The methods presented here complement more traditional spike train analyses by describing not only spiking probability and spike train entropy, but also the complexity of a spike train's structure. We demonstrate our approach using both simulated spike trains and experimental data recorded in rat barrel cortex during vibrissa stimulation.Comment: Somewhat different format from journal version but same conten

Inferring hidden Markov models from noisy time sequences: a method to alleviate degeneracy in molecular dynamics

We present a new method for inferring hidden Markov models from noisy time sequences without the necessity of assuming a model architecture, thus allowing for the detection of degenerate states. This is based on the statistical prediction techniques developed by Crutchfield et al., and generates so called causal state models, equivalent to hidden Markov models. This method is applicable to any continuous data which clusters around discrete values and exhibits multiple transitions between these values such as tethered particle motion data or Fluorescence Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) spectra. The algorithms developed have been shown to perform well on simulated data, demonstrating the ability to recover the model used to generate the data under high noise, sparse data conditions and the ability to infer the existence of degenerate states. They have also been applied to new experimental FRET data of Holliday Junction dynamics, extracting the expected two state model and providing values for the transition rates in good agreement with previous results and with results obtained using existing maximum likelihood based methods.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Proceedings of the second "international Traveling Workshop on Interactions between Sparse models and Technology" (iTWIST'14)

The implicit objective of the biennial "international - Traveling Workshop on Interactions between Sparse models and Technology" (iTWIST) is to foster collaboration between international scientific teams by disseminating ideas through both specific oral/poster presentations and free discussions. For its second edition, the iTWIST workshop took place in the medieval and picturesque town of Namur in Belgium, from Wednesday August 27th till Friday August 29th, 2014. The workshop was conveniently located in "The Arsenal" building within walking distance of both hotels and town center. iTWIST'14 has gathered about 70 international participants and has featured 9 invited talks, 10 oral presentations, and 14 posters on the following themes, all related to the theory, application and generalization of the "sparsity paradigm": Sparsity-driven data sensing and processing; Union of low dimensional subspaces; Beyond linear and convex inverse problem; Matrix/manifold/graph sensing/processing; Blind inverse problems and dictionary learning; Sparsity and computational neuroscience; Information theory, geometry and randomness; Complexity/accuracy tradeoffs in numerical methods; Sparsity? What's next?; Sparse machine learning and inference.Comment: 69 pages, 24 extended abstracts, iTWIST'14 website: http://sites.google.com/site/itwist1

Learning Causal State Representations of Partially Observable Environments

Intelligent agents can cope with sensory-rich environments by learning task-agnostic state abstractions. In this paper, we propose mechanisms to approximate causal states, which optimally compress the joint history of actions and observations in partially-observable Markov decision processes. Our proposed algorithm extracts causal state representations from RNNs that are trained to predict subsequent observations given the history. We demonstrate that these learned task-agnostic state abstractions can be used to efficiently learn policies for reinforcement learning problems with rich observation spaces. We evaluate agents using multiple partially observable navigation tasks with both discrete (GridWorld) and continuous (VizDoom, ALE) observation processes that cannot be solved by traditional memory-limited methods. Our experiments demonstrate systematic improvement of the DQN and tabular models using approximate causal state representations with respect to recurrent-DQN baselines trained with raw inputs