A Condition-Based Maintenance Model for Assets with Accelerated Deterioration Due to Fault Propagation

Complex industrial assets such as power transformers are subject to accelerated deterioration when one of its constituent component malfunctions, affecting the condition of other components, which is a phenomenon called fault propagation. In this paper, we present a novel approach for optimizing condition-based maintenance policies for such assets by modelling their deterioration as a multiple dependent deterioration path process. The aim of the policy is to replace the malfunctioned component and mitigate accelerated deterioration at minimal impact to the business. The maintenance model provides guidance on determining inspection and maintenance strategies to optimize asset availability and operational cost.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from IEEE via http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TR.2015.243913

Optimal Periodic Inspection of a Stochastically Degrading System

This thesis develops and analyzes a procedure to determine the optimal inspection interval that maximizes the limiting average availability of a stochastically degrading component operating in a randomly evolving environment. The component is inspected periodically, and if the total observed cumulative degradation exceeds a fixed threshold value, the component is instantly replaced with a new, statistically identical component. Degradation is due to a combination of continuous wear caused by the component\u27s random operating environment, as well as damage due to randomly occurring shocks of random magnitude. In order to compute an optimal inspection interval and corresponding limiting average availability, a nonlinear program is formulated and solved using a direct search algorithm in conjunction with numerical Laplace transform inversion. Techniques are developed to significantly decrease the time required to compute the approximate optimal solutions. The mathematical programming formulation and solution techniques are illustrated through a series of increasingly complex example problems

Condition-based maintenance for a system subject to multiple degradation processes with stochastic arrival intensity

In this work, a system subject to different deterioration processes is analysed. The arrival of the degradation processes to the system is modelled using a shot-noise Cox process. The degradation processes grow according to an homogeneous gamma process. The system fails when a degradation process exceeds a failure threshold. The combined process of initiation and growth of the degradation processes is modelled and the system reliability is obtained. Heterogeneities are also integrated in the model assuming that the inverse of the scale parameter follows a uniform distribution. A maintenance strategy is implemented in this system and the state of the system is checked in inspection times. If the system is working at inspection time, a preventive replacement is performed if the deterioration level of a degradation process exceeds a certain threshold. A corrective replacement is performed if the system is down at inspection time. Under this maintenance strategy, the expected cost rate is obtained. Sensitivity analysis on the main parameters of the gamma process is performed.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figure

Reliability Analysis And Optimal Maintenance Planning For Repairable Multi-Component Systems Subject To Dependent Competing Risks

Modern engineering systems generally consist of multiple components that interact in a complex manner. Reliability analysis of multi-component repairable systems plays a critical role for system safety and cost reduction. Establishing reliability models and scheduling optimal maintenance plans for multi-component repairable systems, however, is still a big challenge when considering the dependency of component failures. Existing models commonly make prior assumptions, without statistical verification, as to whether different component failures are independent or not. In this dissertation, data-driven systematic methodologies to characterize component failure dependency of complex systems are proposed. In CHAPTER 2, a parametric reliability model is proposed to capture the statistical dependency among different component failures under partially perfect repair assumption. Based on the proposed model, statistical hypothesis tests are developed to test the dependency of component failures. In CHAPTER 3, two reliability models for multi-component systems with dependent competing risks under imperfect assumptions are proposed, i.e., generalized dependent latent age model and copula-based trend-renewal process model. The generalized dependent latent age model generalizes the partially perfect repair model by involving the extended virtual age concept. And the copula-based trend renewal process model utilizes multiple trend functions to transform the failure times from original time domain to a transformed time domain, in which the repair conditions can be treated as partially perfect. Parameter estimation methods for both models are developed. In CHAPTER 4, based on the generalized dependent latent age model, two periodic inspection-based maintenance polices are developed for a multi-component repairable system subject to dependent competing risks. The first maintenance policy assumes all the components are restored to as good as new once a failure detected, i.e., the whole system is replaced. The second maintenance policy considers the partially perfect repair, i.e., only the failed component can be replaced after detection of failures. Both the maintenance policies are optimized with the aim to minimize the expected average maintenance cost per unit time. The developed methodologies are demonstrated by using applications of real engineering systems

A review on maintenance optimization

To this day, continuous developments of technical systems and increasing reliance on equipment have resulted in a growing importance of effective maintenance activities. During the last couple of decades, a substantial amount of research has been carried out on this topic. In this study we review more than two hundred papers on maintenance modeling and optimization that have appeared in the period 2001 to 2018. We begin by describing terms commonly used in the modeling process. Then, in our classification, we first distinguish single-unit and multi-unit systems. Further sub-classification follows, based on the state space of the deterioration process modeled. Other features that we discuss in this review are discrete and continuous condition monitoring, inspection, replacement, repair, and the various types of dependencies that may exist between units within systems. We end with the main developments during the review period and with potential future research directions

A unified methodology of maintenance management for repairable systems based on optimal stopping theory

This dissertation focuses on the study of maintenance management for repairable systems based on optimal stopping theory. From reliability engineering’s point of view, all systems are subject to deterioration with age and usage. System deterioration can take various forms, including wear, fatigue, fracture, cracking, breaking, corrosion, erosion and instability, any of which may ultimately cause the system to fail to perform its required function. Consequently, controlling system deterioration through maintenance and thus controlling the risk of system failure becomes beneficial or even necessary. Decision makers constantly face two fundamental problems with respect to system maintenance. One is whether or when preventive maintenance should be performed in order to avoid costly failures. The other problem is how to make the choice among different maintenance actions in response to a system failure. The whole purpose of maintenance management is to keep the system in good working condition at a reasonably low cost, thus the tradeoff between cost and condition plays a central role in the study of maintenance management, which demands rigorous optimization. The agenda of this research is to develop a unified methodology for modeling and optimization of maintenance systems. A general modeling framework with six classifying criteria is to be developed to formulate and analyze a wide range of maintenance systems which include many existing models in the literature. A unified optimization procedure is developed based on optimal stopping, semi-martingale, and lambda-maximization techniques to solve these models contained in the framework. A comprehensive model is proposed and solved in this general framework using the developed procedure which incorporates many other models as special cases. Policy comparison and policy optimality are studied to offer further insights. Along the theoretical development, numerical examples are provided to illustrate the applicability of the methodology. The main contribution of this research is that the unified modeling framework and systematic optimization procedure structurize the pool of models and policies, weed out non-optimal policies, and establish a theoretical foundation for further development

An imperfect maintenance policy for mission-oriented systems subject to degradation and external shocks

This paper develops a maintenance model for mission-oriented systems subject to natural degradation and external shocks. For mission-oriented systems which are used to perform safety-critical tasks, maintenance actions need to satisfy a range of constraints such as availability/reliability, maintenance duration and the opportunity of maintenance. Additionally, in developing maintenance policy, one needs to consider the natural degradation due to aging and wearing along with the external shocks due to variations of the operating environment. In this paper, the natural degradation is modeled as a Wiener process and the arrival of random shock as a homogeneous Poisson process. The damage caused by shocks is integrated into the degradation process, according to the cumulative shock model. Improvement factor model is used to characterize the impact of maintenance actions on system restoration. Optimal maintenance policy is obtained by minimizing the long-run cost rate. Finally, an example of subsea blowout preventer system is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model