Behavior Prediction Based on Obstacle Motion Patterns in Dynamically Changing Environments

This paper proposes a behavior prediction method for navigation application in dynamically changing environments, which predicts obstacle behaviors based on learned obstacle motion patterns (OMP) from observed obstacle motion trajectories. A multi-level prediction model is then proposed that predicts long-term or short-term obstacle behaviors. Simulation results show that it works well in a complex environment and the prediction is consistent with actual behaviors. © 2008 IEEE.published_or_final_versio

Real-Time Predictive Modeling and Robust Avoidance of Pedestrians with Uncertain, Changing Intentions

To plan safe trajectories in urban environments, autonomous vehicles must be able to quickly assess the future intentions of dynamic agents. Pedestrians are particularly challenging to model, as their motion patterns are often uncertain and/or unknown a priori. This paper presents a novel changepoint detection and clustering algorithm that, when coupled with offline unsupervised learning of a Gaussian process mixture model (DPGP), enables quick detection of changes in intent and online learning of motion patterns not seen in prior training data. The resulting long-term movement predictions demonstrate improved accuracy relative to offline learning alone, in terms of both intent and trajectory prediction. By embedding these predictions within a chance-constrained motion planner, trajectories which are probabilistically safe to pedestrian motions can be identified in real-time. Hardware experiments demonstrate that this approach can accurately predict pedestrian motion patterns from onboard sensor/perception data and facilitate robust navigation within a dynamic environment.Comment: Submitted to 2014 International Workshop on the Algorithmic Foundations of Robotic

AutonoVi: Autonomous Vehicle Planning with Dynamic Maneuvers and Traffic Constraints

We present AutonoVi:, a novel algorithm for autonomous vehicle navigation that supports dynamic maneuvers and satisfies traffic constraints and norms. Our approach is based on optimization-based maneuver planning that supports dynamic lane-changes, swerving, and braking in all traffic scenarios and guides the vehicle to its goal position. We take into account various traffic constraints, including collision avoidance with other vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists using control velocity obstacles. We use a data-driven approach to model the vehicle dynamics for control and collision avoidance. Furthermore, our trajectory computation algorithm takes into account traffic rules and behaviors, such as stopping at intersections and stoplights, based on an arc-spline representation. We have evaluated our algorithm in a simulated environment and tested its interactive performance in urban and highway driving scenarios with tens of vehicles, pedestrians, and cyclists. These scenarios include jaywalking pedestrians, sudden stops from high speeds, safely passing cyclists, a vehicle suddenly swerving into the roadway, and high-density traffic where the vehicle must change lanes to progress more effectively.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure

Human Motion Trajectory Prediction: A Survey

With growing numbers of intelligent autonomous systems in human environments, the ability of such systems to perceive, understand and anticipate human behavior becomes increasingly important. Specifically, predicting future positions of dynamic agents and planning considering such predictions are key tasks for self-driving vehicles, service robots and advanced surveillance systems. This paper provides a survey of human motion trajectory prediction. We review, analyze and structure a large selection of work from different communities and propose a taxonomy that categorizes existing methods based on the motion modeling approach and level of contextual information used. We provide an overview of the existing datasets and performance metrics. We discuss limitations of the state of the art and outline directions for further research.Comment: Submitted to the International Journal of Robotics Research (IJRR), 37 page

Mobile Agent Trajectory Prediction using Bayesian Nonparametric Reachability Trees

This paper presents an efficient trajectory prediction algorithm that has been developed to improve the performance of future collision avoidance and detection systems. The main idea is to embed the inferred intention information of surrounding agents into their estimated reachability sets to obtain a probabilistic description of their future paths. More specifically, the proposed approach combines the recently developed RRT-Reach algorithm and mixtures of Gaussian Processes. RRT-Reach was introduced by the authors as an extension of the closed-loop rapidly-exploring random tree (CL-RRT) algorithm to compute reachable sets of moving objects in real-time. A mixture of Gaussian processes (GP) is a flexible nonparametric Bayesian model used to represent a distribution over trajectories and have been previously demonstrated by the authors in a UAV interception and tracking of ground vehicles planning scheme. The mixture is trained using typical maneuvers learned from statistical data, and RRT-Reach utilizes samples from the GP to grow probabilistically weighted feasible paths of the surrounding vehicles. The resulting approach, denoted as RR-GP, has RRTReach's benefits of computing trajectories that are dynamically feasible by construction, therefore efficiently approximating the reachability set of surrounding vehicles following typical patterns. RRT-GP also features the GP mixture's benefits of providing a probabilistic weighting on the feasible trajectories produced by RRTReach, allowing our system to systematically weight trajectories by their likelihood. A demonstrative example on a car-like vehicle illustrates the advantages of the RR-GP approach by comparing it to two other GP-based algorithms. © 2011 by Professor Jonathan P. How, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc

Intrinsic Motivation and Mental Replay enable Efficient Online Adaptation in Stochastic Recurrent Networks

Autonomous robots need to interact with unknown, unstructured and changing environments, constantly facing novel challenges. Therefore, continuous online adaptation for lifelong-learning and the need of sample-efficient mechanisms to adapt to changes in the environment, the constraints, the tasks, or the robot itself are crucial. In this work, we propose a novel framework for probabilistic online motion planning with online adaptation based on a bio-inspired stochastic recurrent neural network. By using learning signals which mimic the intrinsic motivation signalcognitive dissonance in addition with a mental replay strategy to intensify experiences, the stochastic recurrent network can learn from few physical interactions and adapts to novel environments in seconds. We evaluate our online planning and adaptation framework on an anthropomorphic KUKA LWR arm. The rapid online adaptation is shown by learning unknown workspace constraints sample-efficiently from few physical interactions while following given way points.Comment: accepted in Neural Network

Adaptive human motion analysis and prediction

Human motion analysis and prediction is an active research area where predicting human motion is often performed for a single time step based on historical motion. In recent years, longer term human motion prediction has been attempted over a number of future time steps. Most current methods learn motion patterns (MPs) from observed trajectories and then use them for prediction. However, these learned MPs may not be indicative due to inadequate observation, which naturally affects the reliability of motion prediction. In this paper, we present an adaptive human motion analysis and prediction method. It adaptively predicts motion based on the classified MPs in terms of their credibility, which refers to how indicative the learned MPs are for the specific environment. The main contributions of the proposed method are as follows: First, it provides a comprehensive description of MPs including not only the learned MPs but also their evaluated credibility. Second, it predicts long-term future motion with reasonable accuracy. A number of experiments have been conducted in simulated scenes and real-world scenes and the prediction results have been quantitatively evaluated. The results show that the proposed method is effective and superior in its performance when compared with a recursively applied Auto-Regressive (AR) model, which is called the Recursive Short-term Predictor (RSP) for long-term prediction. The proposed method has 17.73% of improvement over the RSP in prediction accuracy in the experiment with the best performance. On average, the proposed method has 5% improvement over the RSP in prediction accuracy over 10 experiments. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.postprin