25,983 research outputs found
Recommended from our members
A Metaheuristic Adaptive Cubature Based Algorithm to Find Bayesian Optimal Designs for Nonlinear Models
Finding Bayesian optimal designs for nonlinear models is a difficult task because the optimality criteriontypically requires us to evaluate complex integrals before we perform a constrained optimization. Wepropose a hybridized method where we combine an adaptive multidimensional integration algorithm anda metaheuristic algorithm called imperialist competitive algorithm to find Bayesian optimal designs. Weapply our numerical method to a few challenging design problems to demonstrate its efficiency. Theyinclude finding D-optimal designs for an item response model commonly used in education, Bayesianoptimal designs for survivalmodels, and Bayesian optimal designs for a four-parameter sigmoid Emax doseresponse model. Supplementary materials for this article are available online and they contain an R packagefor implementing the proposed algorithm and codes for reproducing all the results in this paper
Consistent Second-Order Conic Integer Programming for Learning Bayesian Networks
Bayesian Networks (BNs) represent conditional probability relations among a
set of random variables (nodes) in the form of a directed acyclic graph (DAG),
and have found diverse applications in knowledge discovery. We study the
problem of learning the sparse DAG structure of a BN from continuous
observational data. The central problem can be modeled as a mixed-integer
program with an objective function composed of a convex quadratic loss function
and a regularization penalty subject to linear constraints. The optimal
solution to this mathematical program is known to have desirable statistical
properties under certain conditions. However, the state-of-the-art optimization
solvers are not able to obtain provably optimal solutions to the existing
mathematical formulations for medium-size problems within reasonable
computational times. To address this difficulty, we tackle the problem from
both computational and statistical perspectives. On the one hand, we propose a
concrete early stopping criterion to terminate the branch-and-bound process in
order to obtain a near-optimal solution to the mixed-integer program, and
establish the consistency of this approximate solution. On the other hand, we
improve the existing formulations by replacing the linear "big-" constraints
that represent the relationship between the continuous and binary indicator
variables with second-order conic constraints. Our numerical results
demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approaches
Towards Machine Wald
The past century has seen a steady increase in the need of estimating and
predicting complex systems and making (possibly critical) decisions with
limited information. Although computers have made possible the numerical
evaluation of sophisticated statistical models, these models are still designed
\emph{by humans} because there is currently no known recipe or algorithm for
dividing the design of a statistical model into a sequence of arithmetic
operations. Indeed enabling computers to \emph{think} as \emph{humans} have the
ability to do when faced with uncertainty is challenging in several major ways:
(1) Finding optimal statistical models remains to be formulated as a well posed
problem when information on the system of interest is incomplete and comes in
the form of a complex combination of sample data, partial knowledge of
constitutive relations and a limited description of the distribution of input
random variables. (2) The space of admissible scenarios along with the space of
relevant information, assumptions, and/or beliefs, tend to be infinite
dimensional, whereas calculus on a computer is necessarily discrete and finite.
With this purpose, this paper explores the foundations of a rigorous framework
for the scientific computation of optimal statistical estimators/models and
reviews their connections with Decision Theory, Machine Learning, Bayesian
Inference, Stochastic Optimization, Robust Optimization, Optimal Uncertainty
Quantification and Information Based Complexity.Comment: 37 page
- …