A Dirichlet Process based type-1 and type-2 fuzzy modeling for systematic confidence bands prediction

This paper presents a new methodology for fuzzy logic systems modeling based on the Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture models (DPGMM). The proposed method simultaneously allows for the systematic elicitation of confidence bands as well as the automatic determination of model complexity. This work is new since existing fuzzy model elicitation techniques use ad hoc methods for confidence band estimations, which do not meet the stringent requirements of today's challenging environments where data are sparse, incomplete, and characterized by noise as well as uncertainties. The proposed approach involves an integration of fuzzy and Bayesian topologies and allows for the generation of confidence bands based on both the random and linguistic uncertainties embedded in the data. Additionally, the proposed method provides a “right-first time approach” to fuzzy modeling as it does not require an iterative model complexity determination. In order to see how the proposed framework performs across a variety of challenging data modeling problems, the proposed approach was tested on a nonlinear synthetic dataset as well as two real multidimensional datasets generated by the authors from materials science and bladder cancer studies. Results show that the proposed approach consistently provides better generalization performances than other well-known soft computing modeling frameworks-in some cases, improvements of up to 20% in modeling accuracy were achieved. The proposed method also provides the capability to handle uncertainties via the generation of systematic confidence intervals for informing on model reliability. These results are significant since the generic methodologies developed in this paper should help material scientists as well as clinicians, for example, assess the risks involved in making informed decisions based on model predictions

Developing integrated data fusion algorithms for a portable cargo screening detection system

Towards having a one size fits all solution to cocaine detection at borders; this thesis proposes a systematic cocaine detection methodology that can use raw data output from a fibre optic sensor to produce a set of unique features whose decisions can be combined to lead to reliable output. This multidisciplinary research makes use of real data sourced from cocaine analyte detecting fibre optic sensor developed by one of the collaborators - City University, London. This research advocates a two-step approach: For the first step, the raw sensor data are collected and stored. Level one fusion i.e. analyses, pre-processing and feature extraction is performed at this stage. In step two, using experimentally pre-determined thresholds, each feature decides on detection of cocaine or otherwise with a corresponding posterior probability. High level sensor fusion is then performed on this output locally to combine these decisions and their probabilities at time intervals. Output from every time interval is stored in the database and used as prior data for the next time interval. The final output is a decision on detection of cocaine. The key contributions of this thesis includes investigating the use of data fusion techniques as a solution for overcoming challenges in the real time detection of cocaine using fibre optic sensor technology together with an innovative user interface design. A generalizable sensor fusion architecture is suggested and implemented using the Bayesian and Dempster-Shafer techniques. The results from implemented experiments show great promise with this architecture especially in overcoming sensor limitations. A 5-fold cross validation system using a 12 13 - 1 Neural Network was used in validating the feature selection process. This validation step yielded 89.5% and 10.5% true positive and false alarm rates with 0.8 correlation coefficient. Using the Bayesian Technique, it is possible to achieve 100% detection whilst the Dempster Shafer technique achieves a 95% detection using the same features as inputs to the DF system