Time-Sensitive Bayesian Information Aggregation for Crowdsourcing Systems

Crowdsourcing systems commonly face the problem of aggregating multiple judgments provided by potentially unreliable workers. In addition, several aspects of the design of efficient crowdsourcing processes, such as defining worker's bonuses, fair prices and time limits of the tasks, involve knowledge of the likely duration of the task at hand. Bringing this together, in this work we introduce a new time--sensitive Bayesian aggregation method that simultaneously estimates a task's duration and obtains reliable aggregations of crowdsourced judgments. Our method, called BCCTime, builds on the key insight that the time taken by a worker to perform a task is an important indicator of the likely quality of the produced judgment. To capture this, BCCTime uses latent variables to represent the uncertainty about the workers' completion time, the tasks' duration and the workers' accuracy. To relate the quality of a judgment to the time a worker spends on a task, our model assumes that each task is completed within a latent time window within which all workers with a propensity to genuinely attempt the labelling task (i.e., no spammers) are expected to submit their judgments. In contrast, workers with a lower propensity to valid labeling, such as spammers, bots or lazy labelers, are assumed to perform tasks considerably faster or slower than the time required by normal workers. Specifically, we use efficient message-passing Bayesian inference to learn approximate posterior probabilities of (i) the confusion matrix of each worker, (ii) the propensity to valid labeling of each worker, (iii) the unbiased duration of each task and (iv) the true label of each task. Using two real-world public datasets for entity linking tasks, we show that BCCTime produces up to 11% more accurate classifications and up to 100% more informative estimates of a task's duration compared to state-of-the-art methods

A Full Probabilistic Model for Yes/No Type Crowdsourcing in Multi-Class Classification

Crowdsourcing has become widely used in supervised scenarios where training sets are scarce and difficult to obtain. Most crowdsourcing models in the literature assume labelers can provide answers to full questions. In classification contexts, full questions require a labeler to discern among all possible classes. Unfortunately, discernment is not always easy in realistic scenarios. Labelers may not be experts in differentiating all classes. In this work, we provide a full probabilistic model for a shorter type of queries. Our shorter queries only require "yes" or "no" responses. Our model estimates a joint posterior distribution of matrices related to labelers' confusions and the posterior probability of the class of every object. We developed an approximate inference approach, using Monte Carlo Sampling and Black Box Variational Inference, which provides the derivation of the necessary gradients. We built two realistic crowdsourcing scenarios to test our model. The first scenario queries for irregular astronomical time-series. The second scenario relies on the image classification of animals. We achieved results that are comparable with those of full query crowdsourcing. Furthermore, we show that modeling labelers' failures plays an important role in estimating true classes. Finally, we provide the community with two real datasets obtained from our crowdsourcing experiments. All our code is publicly available.Comment: SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM19), 9 official pages, 5 supplementary page

Crowdsourcing Without a Crowd: Reliable Online Species Identification Using Bayesian Models to Minimize Crowd Size

We present an incremental Bayesian model that resolves key issues of crowd size and data quality for consensus labeling. We evaluate our method using data collected from a real-world citizen science program, BeeWatch, which invites members of the public in the United Kingdom to classify (label) photographs of bumblebees as one of 22 possible species. The biological recording domain poses two key and hitherto unaddressed challenges for consensus models of crowdsourcing: (1) the large number of potential species makes classification difficult, and (2) this is compounded by limited crowd availability, stemming from both the inherent difficulty of the task and the lack of relevant skills among the general public. We demonstrate that consensus labels can be reliably found in such circumstances with very small crowd sizes of around three to five users (i.e., through group sourcing). Our incremental Bayesian model, which minimizes crowd size by re-evaluating the quality of the consensus label following each species identification solicited from the crowd, is competitive with a Bayesian approach that uses a larger but fixed crowd size and outperforms majority voting. These results have important ecological applicability: biological recording programs such as BeeWatch can sustain themselves when resources such as taxonomic experts to confirm identifications by photo submitters are scarce (as is typically the case), and feedback can be provided to submitters in a timely fashion. More generally, our model provides benefits to any crowdsourced consensus labeling task where there is a cost (financial or otherwise) associated with soliciting a label

Wiley Interdiscip Rev Comput Stat

Forecasts support decision making in a variety of applications. Statistical models can produce accurate forecasts given abundant training data, but when data is sparse or rapidly changing, statistical models may not be able to make accurate predictions. Expert judgmental forecasts-models that combine expert-generated predictions into a single forecast-can make predictions when training data is limited by relying on human intuition. Researchers have proposed a wide array of algorithms to combine expert predictions into a single forecast, but there is no consensus on an optimal aggregation model. This review surveyed recent literature on aggregating expert-elicited predictions. We gathered common terminology, aggregation methods, and forecasting performance metrics, and offer guidance to strengthen future work that is growing at an accelerated pace.R35 GM119582/GM/NIGMS NIH HHSUnited States/U01 IP001122/IP/NCIRD CDC HHSUnited States/2022-03-01T00:00:00Z33777310PMC799632111017vault:3684